A Movement but No Revolution

At 77, the African National Congress is one of the oldest liberation movements in the world and therefore one of the least effective. Founded by black professionals and hereditary chiefs as a modest political lobby, it turned to "armed struggle" under the guidance of Nelson Mandela after it was outlawed in 1960, but never mounted a significant threat to the government in either guise. Today the exiled A.N.C. is looking to change its fortunes. In collaboration with the new domestic antiapartheid coalition, called the Mass Democratic Movement, it has issued a proposal for peace talks with Pretoria. "The question of a negotiated settlement," said Thabo Mbeki, 47, the heir apparent to the A.N.C.'s ailing President Oliver Tambo, 71, "is very much on the agenda."

Yet the nonviolent alternative to armed struggle has also failed to break apartheid. The M.D.M. stages isolated events in its "defiance campaign" but has been unable to put together a sustained strategy of mass civil disobedience that could successfully challenge the government's power. If thousands of blacks staged sit-ins, walk-ins and swim-ins at segregated institutions every day for months, the system could crack under the strain.

Similarly, the unions have often called large one- or two-day "stayaways" but have not managed to organize the kind of prolonged general strike that could bring the economy to a halt. Many South African businessmen say privately that the most effective economic sanction of all would be for the millions of black workers simply to stay at home until the government agrees to negotiate. This does not happen, says a diplomat in Pretoria, because "the primary concern of most blacks in South Africa is money. The secondary concern is possible political gain in the future. There is no revolution in sight."