Lead-Pipe Politics

By William R. Doerner

The scene, no matter how often it is played back in the mind, still shocks and horrifies. At the end of a rally of opposition forces protesting the blatant exercise of electoral larceny in Panama, a band of T-shirted men suddenly appeared carrying wooden clubs and metal pipes. With grotesque inappropriateness, they styled themselves the Dignity Battalion. As troops of the Panama Defense Force nonchalantly looked on, the thugs closed in on the victorious trio who three days earlier had easily defeated the handpicked candidates of Panamanian General Manuel Antonio Noriega for the posts of President and First and Second Vice Presidents. Suddenly the thugs grabbed the bodyguard of Guillermo Ford, the candidate for Second Vice President, shoved him against a car, thrust a gun into his mouth and fired.

As Ford, his white guayabera drenched with his bodyguard's blood and with television cameras whirring, tried to stumble away, two of the attackers lifted their clubs and methodically struck him again and again. Only the intercession of a PDF officer, who hustled Ford into a car and sped away, saved the white-haired candidate from what might have been a fatal mauling.

It was political revenge at its most brutal, the latest and most vicious reminder yet of Noriega's arrogant lawlessness. For more than a year, Noriega has ignored two U.S. indictments accusing him of complicity in the international drug trade. He has jailed or deported opponents, destroyed the sprigs of a free press, and watched his country slide into economic ruin rather than give up the whips of power. Nonetheless, Noriega outdid himself last week by stealing an election so brazenly that, in the words of Venezuelan President Carlos Andres Perez, it amounted to "a coup d'etat."

Concerned that Noriega's proclivity for street violence might put Americans in Panama at risk, President George Bush ordered some 2,000 troops to join the 10,300 American soldiers already stationed on Panamanian soil. He advised all U.S. Government employees and dependents living off U.S. bases to move temporarily to safer quarters, and recalled Ambassador Arthur Davis, a step just short of breaking off diplomatic relations.

Washington's response to Noriega's provocations was measured and moderate, particularly in view of its 18-month-old campaign to oust him. But Noriega's departure continues to be Washington's main goal, and National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft disclosed last week that the U.S. has resumed efforts to find a country willing to offer Noriega refuge. In unusually blunt language, Bush told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday that "the will of the people should not be thwarted by this man and a handful of Doberman thugs. They ought to do everything they can to get Mr. Noriega out of there." Asked if he wished to temper his comments, the President replied, "No, I would add no words of caution."

Noriega, who remained out of sight for most of the week, did not emerge unscathed from the sorry election exercise. Panamanian voters dealt him a stinging rebuke in rejecting, by more than 2 to 1, the presidential candidacy of Carlos Duque, the general's longtime friend and business manager. So clear was the electorate's embrace of the opposition, a coalition known as the Democratic Alliance of Civil Opposition and led by lawyer Guillermo Endara, that authorities felt obliged to declare the election null and void. That decision was widely interpreted as an admission by Noriega that given such a lopsided vote, not even he could foist Duque on his country. Vowed Ricardo Arias Calderon, the coalition's candidate for First Vice President: "We will continue to fight by all peaceful means."

Even though his election plans were disrupted, Noriega remained in control of Panama. But his rule is no longer as absolute as it was a week ago. The elections bestowed a certain legitimacy on the opposition and forced Noriega to consult more frequently than usual with the military, the key to his power. Noriega may also be looking over his shoulder more often at rank-and-file members of the PDF , as the general's election analysts concede that significant numbers of uniformed voters chose Endara over Duque. Even Panama's highly influential Roman Catholic Church, which had remained silent throughout the crisis, felt compelled to issue a statement deploring Noriega's effort to "frustrate popular will."

Meanwhile, part of a battalion of U.S. troops from Fort Ord, Calif., began arriving at Howard Air Force Base, near Panama City. They will be joined by other light-infantry units from Fort Polk, La., and Marine assault troops from Camp Lejeune, N.C. Also transported into Panama will be some 200 support vehicles, including armored personnel carriers and mortar carriers. At the same time, hundreds of military dependents in Panama evacuated their homes and moved to the safety of the ten U.S. military bases that bestride the 50-mile- long Panama Canal.

Endara, a political disciple of the late Panamanian President Arnulfo Arias, ran a spirited campaign in the three months before the May 7 voting. Washington funneled some $10 million in campaign funds to the opposition, evidently hoping that if Endara and his running mates won, Noriega would be forced to reach an accommodation with them. As Panamanians turned out in large numbers to cast their ballots, Endara had reason to be confident: polls showed he was favored over Duque by at least 2 to 1 and perhaps by as much as 3 to 1. But Noriega apparently deluded himself into believing that Duque, a self- styled populist, could win with only minimal cheating.

Throughout election day, teams of international poll watchers, including several members of Congress, witnessed balloting irregularities, notably the disappearance from voting registers of the names of longtime residents in some districts. But the glitches appeared to be minor. After the polls closed at 6 p.m., however, bands of armed men, some in uniform and some in civilian dress, raided ballot centers and confiscated the actas, tabulation sheets showing the vote totals and signed by representatives of all the political parties. Luis Del Rio, an overseer at a polling station in the suburb of San Miguelito, surrendered his tabulation documents to a gang of men who burst in at 4:30 a.m. and pointed a machine gun at his groin. In many cases the intruders left behind new actas with fake signatures. When the Electoral Tribunal got around to announcing the preliminary count three days after the election, it claimed that the Duque ticket was leading with almost two-thirds of the vote.

One of the first observers to cry foul was former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, a hero to many Panamanians for his role in signing the 1977 treaty pledging to place the canal under local sovereignty in the year 2000. Received cordially by Noriega the day before the election, Carter got a very different reception after he concluded that the election had been stolen. When Carter tried to telephone Noriega, he was told the general was too busy to talk. When Carter tried to hold a press conference at the Panama City convention center, where the votes were being tallied, he was barred from the premises. Said Carter: "The government has taken the election by fraud."

On Monday some 5,000 Panamanians converged on the auditorium to protest Noriega's wholesale vote switching, but police dispersed them by firing live ammunition above the crowd. A Panamanian cameraman nonetheless was wounded.

The bloodiest violence occurred three days later at the end of a parade of some 3,000 led through Panama City by Endara and his two running mates. As the rally broke up at Santa Ana Plaza, the trio alighted from a car and told a PDF escort that they wanted to turn off the main steet and disband. The officer in charge asked them to wait briefly. Suddenly the ranks of the uniformed officers parted to admit members of the Dignity Battalion, a paramilitary group founded by Noriega.

As the goons pushed their way toward Endara, a party official shouted, "Watch out!" The warning was too late. One attacker clubbed Endara over the head with a spike-tipped metal rod. Arias Calderon was also beaten on the head. Ford was attacked with a metal pipe and a wooden plank. Some of the thugs brandished handguns, in one case with deadly results. An attacker felled one of Ford's bodyguards, Manuel Alexis Guerra, with an iron bar, then shot and killed him. Eventually, aides lifted Endara past the attackers and soldiers and took him by taxi to the hospital. Ford also required medical care, and Arias Calderon escaped to a safe house.

Other Latin American governments condemned Panama's hijacked election, though most, reflecting the region's distaste for the bad old days of U.S. gunboat diplomacy, pointedly declared that the country's problems did not warrant outside intervention. Foreign ministers of the Group of Eight, an economic and social partnership in Latin America that Panama was suspended from in 1988, declared their "profound concern" for Panama and called for the "free and unrestricted enforcement of the popular will." In Washington the Organization of American States scheduled a meeting this week to discuss the "serious crisis." U.S. congressional reaction to Noriega's latest brutality ranged from resigned shrugs to reckless calls on Bush to abrogate the Panama Canal treaty unilaterally. As Sol Linowitz, who helped negotiate the 1978 pact for the Carter Administration, points out, the treaty is the only legal basis for a U.S. military presence in Panama. If Washington breaks the treaty, the U.S. will automatically give up the right to have troops stationed at the canal.

Bush was determined to approach Panama's crisis with prudence, one of his favorite watchwords. On the one hand, said National Security Adviser Scowcroft, "we're trying to demonstrate that this is not business as usual," meaning that some U.S. response was required. On the other hand, Bush did not want to risk strengthening Noriega by appearing to meddle without sufficient cause in Panamanian affairs. What primarily concerned Bush was the safety of the 52,000 Americans living in Panama, who include, besides military members and their families, some 28,000 civilians, many of them retired canal employees who live in what used to be known as the Canal Zone and are still called "zonies."

Besides sending in more troops and recalling Ambassador Davis, Bush called on governments in the region to keep pressure on Noriega and vowed to maintain U.S. economic sanctions. These moves, as press secretary Marlin Fitzwater candidly admitted, were "not aimed at overthrowing Noriega." That is, if anything, an understatement, since similar measures taken a year ago by the Reagan Administration only strengthened the embattled dictator's determination to hang on. Yet getting rid of Noriega remains the long-term goal that Bush inherited from his predecessor. And Bush did flash an unmistakable sign of encouragement to reformist elements within the 15,000-member PDF -- a subgroup that has kept a low profile under the general but is certain to figure in a post-Noriega Panama. Said Bush: "A professional Panamanian Defense Force can have an important role to play in Panama's democratic future."

The Administration took the unusual step of recognizing Endara as Panama's President-elect. In effect, the U.S. rejected not only the fraudulent official returns but also the subsequent nullification of the vote. What impact, if any, that action will have is far from clear. In March 1988 the U.S. recognized Eric Arturo Delvalle as Panama's Chief Executive, even though he went into exile after being ousted for attempting to fire Noriega. Thus the disagreement between Noriega and Washington on who is leading the country has dragged on for 14 months.

Despite Noriega's violent tactics, the opposition was willing to meet with the Panamanian leader. There were hints that Noriega might also be amenable to talks. One of the general's supporters, former Commerce Minister Mario Rognoni, suggested that possible intermediaries for such an undertaking might be Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez, a Mexican official or a papal envoy. But precisely what would be negotiated at such a session remained unclear. Noriega may plan eventually to schedule another presidential election and find another loyalist to serve as his stand-in. Endara and his allies, for their part, are adamant that any pact with Noriega must include his departure.

Other Noriega confidants speculated that the general might be willing to step down -- provided Washington drops its drug indictments against him. That is a condition that Reagan accepted a year ago but that Bush has rejected. Noriega may attempt to reopen negotiations with the U.S. on that matter, if only to buy time. Unless a solution can be found quickly, Bush, like Reagan, could find himself sinking ever deeper into a frustrating brawl with a dictator whom few care for but no one knows how to get rid of.

With reporting by Ricardo Chavira/Washington, Michael Duffy with Bush, and John Moody/Panama City