Middle East Inch by Inch, Step by Step

By Scott MacLeod

Well, expectations were low. So, few were surprised when the latest round of Middle East diplomacy in Washington last week produced little measurable progress, though many were disappointed.

Not, however, Yitzhak Shamir. Determined to resist any American effort to press him into major negotiations or concessions, the Israeli Prime Minister told journalists flying with him to the U.S., "I am immune to pressure." So he was. For the Israeli delegation, the absence of any public breach between the two nations during two days of talks was itself a victory. Shamir had feared that President Bush might push an international peace conference, which he had cautiously endorsed during earlier meetings last week with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. And Shamir was deeply aggrieved by another Bush pronouncement, urging Israel to end its "occupation" of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

After the talks, Bush wound up lending qualified support to the one modestly promising part of Shamir's four-point proposal: allowing Palestinians in the occupied territories to elect representatives to negotiate with Israel for some limited "interim" self-rule, as promised more than a decade ago in the Camp David accords. While Shamir again repeated that Israel would never leave those areas, Bush did insist that the U.S. regards any such negotiations as just a first step toward a settlement. But Shamir felt his basic objectives were satisfied. "The Americans certainly don't agree with all of our policies," said an Israeli official. "But," he added, sounding relieved, "they realize they must work with us. We consider that a success."

Shamir's proposed elections come heavily, perhaps fatally, encumbered. He said the Palestinians must first stop their violent 16-month-old uprising, the intifadeh. Shamir also refused to countenance international supervision of the balloting, despite gentle prodding from Secretary of State James Baker, and rejected direct participation by the Palestine Liberation Organization, which the Arabs in the occupied territories already consider their legitimate representative.

Still, Bush said the U.S. would now work with Israel and the Palestinians to reach "a mutually acceptable formula for elections." U.S. officials express hope that such steps can lead to a substantive dialogue between the two parties in the dispute. But they were disappointed that the stubborn Shamir had not displayed enough change "in nuance and tone" to spark some real peace momentum. Despite Administration prodding, Shamir refused to outline what steps he might take toward reducing Israeli brutality against Palestinian demonstrators, such as lifting economic sanctions, reopening schools and putting an end to the demolition of houses. Shamir feels he can afford to be inflexible. Politically, he has never been stronger. Although last November's elections produced a stalemate, he outmaneuvered his rivals and now exercises almost complete control over foreign policy. Diplomatically, his Washington trip left behind at least a faint impression that Israel was taking some initiative.

As expected, P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat swiftly denounced Shamir's proposals, calling them "inappropriate, as usual," and many Palestinians in the occupied territories followed suit. In Jerusalem on Friday, the first day of the month-long Ramadan observance, hundreds of Palestinians pouring out of midday prayer services at the al Aqsa mosque on the Temple Mount launched an angry demonstration, throwing rocks and chanting anti-Israeli and anti- American slogans.

To the Bush Administration, such protests are not necessarily all bad. Rather than pressure Shamir directly, Bush's top advisers seem content to let the intifadeh do it for them. "We can let the uprising proceed, let the pressures continue to work on public opinion in Israel and the United States," explains a senior Bush adviser, "and try to channel those pressures in constructive directions." So for the time being, the Administration feels that the best policy is one of patient incrementalism. "The President does not believe conditions now exist for making peace, but he would like to see those conditions fostered, step by step," said the U.S. official. "Time is on our side." That, however, may mean years -- and a change in Prime Ministers.

With reporting by Dan Goodgame/Washington and Jon D. Hull with Shamir