Angola Shifts in the Wind

By Guy D. Garcia

The small smile that creased his normally stolid face said more than a thousand press conferences: Assistant Secretary of State Chester Crocker was pleased. And with good reason. Seven years ago, he set out to negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict involving Angola, Cuba and South Africa. Last week the three countries jointly announced "a de facto cessation of hostilities" in the 13-year-old war and pledged to work toward the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Angola and neighboring Namibia. The impending agreement is not only a personal triumph for Crocker but also one of the most impressive examples of creative, consistent diplomacy in the Reagan era.

As some 3,000 South African troops began pulling out of Angola last week, however, some potentially explosive issues remained unresolved. For starters, the talks did not include representatives from either the Soviet-backed South West Africa People's Organization, which has an estimated 2,500 troops in Angola, or the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), which is backed by the U.S. and South Africa and has an army of some 25,000 in Angola. UNITA insists that it will continue fighting.

Crocker remained cautious about declaring an end to one of the world's most complicated and protracted conflicts. "It's on the verge of the pieces either pulling together or blowing up very fast," he said. "What I'm trying to do now is focus attention and pressure on the big pieces not yet resolved -- primarily the schedule for Cuban withdrawal." Cuba and Angola have proposed a three-to-four-year timetable to remove its estimated 50,000 troops from Angola, while South Africa has called for a complete Cuban withdrawal by next June. Says Crocker: "There will have to be a compromise."

For the time being, however, all three countries have agreed to a schedule of steps leading to the implementation of a three-way treaty drafted in Geneva two weeks ago. Among the main provisions:

-- A South African pullout from Angola by Sept. 1, by which time Cuba and Angola will present a timetable for the withdrawal of Cuban troops.

-- Implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 435, which South Africa agreed to in principle in 1978 but has never carried out. The resolution calls for Namibian independence and U.N.-supervised elections there.

-- A phased withdrawal of most of the estimated 50,000 South African troops from Namibia to be completed by Feb. 1, 1989, and the deployment of a 7,500- member U.N. peacekeeping force.

The accord vindicates Crocker's tenacious, realpolitik brand of diplomacy. A former director of African studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Crocker was hired by the State Department in 1981 and assumed the job of finding a solution to the turmoil in Africa.

Crocker credits the breakthrough in negotiations to his strategy of linking the competing interests with the comprehensive settlement he has mediated. He believes the antagonists in the regional drama have gradually come to accept his plan as their only way out of an inconclusive struggle. Says Crocker: "You have to create your own wind in the sails."

It did not hurt, of course, that the winds of war had also begun to blow in his favor. Last summer the Angolan army launched a Cuban-backed offensive against UNITA strongholds in the southeast of the country. South African forces responded with a full-scale counterattack that drove the Angolans and Cubans back to the town of Cuito Cuanavale. Three months ago in southwest Angola, Cuban troops took up positions as close as ten miles from the Namibian border. Bogged down in an expensive and demoralizing military stalemate, all three governments have become increasingly receptive to a settlement that would end the fighting while protecting their security interests.

Just as crucial, perhaps, was South Africa's realization that its best interests lay in reaching a Namibia settlement while the Reagan Administration was still in office. At the same time, the Soviets started throwing their weight behind the peace process. Crocker has held half a dozen meetings with his Soviet counterparts since March to discuss the superpowers' role in the conflict and to ask Moscow to urge both the Angolans and the South Africans to be flexible.

Even so, some diplomats are skeptical that Pretoria will honor its commitment to leave Namibia, which it has administered for 73 years. More than once during the past seven years, the South Africans have dashed Crocker's hopes for peace. Perhaps to show its good faith, South Africa has invited U.N. Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar to visit Pretoria as soon as possible to discuss independence for Namibia.

Meanwhile, representatives of the U.S., South Africa, Angola and Cuba plan to reconvene next week to discuss such issues as a schedule for withdrawal of Cuban troops, future South African aid to Angolan rebels and the presence of bases of the African National Congress, which is fighting a guerrilla campaign against South Africa. Asked about the upcoming negotiations, Crocker said, "Some bullets have been bitten. There are some more that have to be bitten. And soon."

With reporting by Bruce W. Nelan/ Johannesburg and Jay Peterzell/Washington