Middle East Destined for a Dogfight

By William E. Smith

Israel's national unity government appeared to work smoothly enough in its first 31 months. But by last week its two leaders, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, seemed increasingly destined to tangle in a bitter clash of wills. The reason: Peres wants Israel to cooperate with Jordan, the U.S. and probably Egypt in the convening of an international peace conference on the Middle East, but Shamir is dead set against the idea. When Peres left on a trip to Western Europe to pursue the plan, Shamir declared testily, "I hope he fails." Last week the Prime Minister made a quick visit to Paris. His stated mission: "To undermine European support for an international conference."

What was going on? A few weeks ago Peres reportedly held secret talks with Jordan's King Hussein. Peres apparently found a ready partner in Hussein, who has long advocated a peace conference at which he could deal directly with Israel without being branded a traitor to the Arab cause. His efforts to form a negotiating partnership with Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat failed a year ago.

Peres has evidently concluded that the time is right for a peace initiative. In the interests of Palestinian unity, the P.L.O. recently cut itself off from both Jordan and Egypt, and remains estranged from Syria. Hussein was known to be impatient over the prevailing stalemate. Furthermore, the U.S. has been conferring with Israel, Jordan and Egypt about the possibility of a redefined peace conference. Unresolved were the questions of how the Palestinians would be represented in such a forum and under what conditions the Soviet Union would be invited.

If such a conference should take place, many believe it would quickly disintegrate into a dust storm of irreconcilable differences. No matter. It has already become a political issue that could break up Israel's national unity government. Peres is convinced that he has enough of a commitment from Hussein to justify requesting the Israeli Cabinet to endorse the idea of a conference. If it refuses, he seems determined to keep the peace initiative alive by bringing down the government and pushing for early elections. Peres told Israeli newspaper editors last week that he was "more than optimistic" about the prospects for peace talks. Replied Shamir: "I believe it would be irresponsible with regard to the country's interests to thrust us into the whirlpool of elections . . . and, God forbid, send the country back into the period of inflation and instability."

Thus the lines are drawn for a fierce political battle. The Likud fears that Peres has already made a deal with Hussein, committing the Labor Party to a territorial compromise over the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the price of Jordan's participation. Peres will travel to Washington next week to see Secretary of State George Shultz. The Reagan Administration has been lukewarm about an international conference, but American diplomats in the region have sought dutifully to mediate a workable plan. The last thing Washington wants is to be pitched into the midst of a political battle royal.

With reporting by Johanna McGeary/Jerusalem