Guatemala Giving Democracy A Chance

By John Moody/Guatemala City

Even by the brutal standards of Central American politics, Guatemala's reputation for murderous repression is chilling. Since a U.S.-backed coup in 1954, more than 100,000 civilians have been slaughtered by right-wing death squads and left-wing guerrillas, or have disappeared. As many as 250,000 people are believed to have fled the country, some 40,000 of them to neighboring Mexico. Thus, when Mexican President Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado last week praised Guatemala's democratic principles during his first state visit to that country, he was acknowledging an important change in the land that was once the jewel of the Mayan empire.

Much of the credit for Guatemala's democratic revival goes to President Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo, 44. Since taking office in January 1986 as only the second civilian leader in 30 years, Cerezo has walked a delicate line of placating the military, which wields ultimate power, and nurturing the country's democratic seedlings. A lawyer by training, Cerezo has shown a skilled hand in dealing with Guatemala's domestic problems. Last week, at the door of the national palace, he confronted relatives of some of the thousands of people who are missing and presumed to have been killed in political violence, often by the army. In a suave four-minute speech, the President vowed to investigate the disappearances but wisely avoided any promises to prosecute military officers responsible for the terror.

Cerezo in recent months has also become a prime mover in Central American efforts to find a negotiated settlement to the war in Nicaragua. Two days before De la Madrid arrived, President Jose Napoleon Duarte of El Salvador slipped unannounced into Santo Tomas, some 30 miles south of the capital, where Cerezo has a country retreat. The Duarte visit, which no doubt included discussion of the region's problems, was part of Cerezo's intricate diplomatic skein. Last month Cerezo met with President Daniel Ortega Saavedra in Nicaragua. The Sandinista leader reiterated his refusal to negotiate with the U.S.-backed contras, but the two agreed to keep talking. Cerezo's critics believe his attempt to be an honest broker in the Nicaraguan conflict has jeopardized Guatemala's ties to the U.S. This year American military aid was slashed to $2.4 million, less than half the 1986 level. While Guatemalans suspect that the reduction is Washington's way of showing its displeasure, U.S. officials deny that. Congressional sources say the decrease was merely the result of Gramm-Rudman budget cutting. Next month Cerezo will travel to Washington to meet with President Reagan.

Cerezo's biggest test as a diplomat will come at the end of June, when he is scheduled to play host to a summit meeting of five Central American countries in the Guatemalan border town of Esquipulas. The meeting will discuss a ten-point peace plan unveiled in February by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez. Some U.S. and Central American officials think that the Arias plan, which would require all Central American governments to negotiate with opposition groups and hold democratic elections, could be the basis for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Nicaraguan conflict. The Sandinistas are likely to oppose the Arias proposal, but Cerezo still pushes ahead, staking his hard- won prestige on the summit. Says Vice Foreign Minister Jose Luis Chea: "Vinicio has a good sense of timing. He believes that so long as we keep talking, there is a chance for peace."

So far Cerezo, who has already survived two reported coup attempts, has had timing and luck on his side. If he is to serve his full term until 1991 and promote a peaceful settlement in Nicaragua, he will need lots more of both.