And Now, the Greater Lakes

By Jamie Murphy

Nine-foot combers bore down upon seawalls, crested and broke, hurling tons of spume 20 feet or higher into the air. Water streamed down the windows of shoreside high-rises. Inside, chandeliers swayed and furniture trembled. These vivid scenes were not of a city on the Gulf Coast in the midst of a hurricane. Instead, the locale was Chicago's lakefront last week, and no hurricane was involved. The storm was just a late autumn blow.

The apartment buildings along Lake Michigan were deluged for a more ominous reason: the water in the Great Lakes is rising to record levels. This year even minor storms may cause major damage. Those who live along the shores of what constitutes the largest body of fresh water in the world are trying desperately to protect their property, dumping sandbags in front of their homes, even moving entire houses to higher ground. Erie, the shallowest lake, has grown especially dangerous as waves several feet high smash against homes. "We haven't had water levels like this since we started keeping records in 1860," says Philip Keillor, of the University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute. "And we've done a lot of building on the lake-front since then."

The watermark in the Great Lakes depends on the weather. A hot, dry spell means not only less rainfall but a higher rate of evaporation from the lakes' surfaces. But precipitation has been above normal for 15 of the past 18 years, and temperatures have grown cooler. September, for example, is usually a dry month, but it brought drenching rains to the Great Lakes basin. In October Lake Michigan crept to an average of 581.6 ft. above sea level, more than a foot higher than a year earlier and topping its 20th century record of 581 ft., set in 1974. Lakes Huron and Erie climbed to new heights, while Superior and Ontario are swelling fast.

Proposals for relief include channeling more water out of Lake Michigan into the Chicago River and reversing two Canadian rivers that spill into Lake Superior. But experts are pessimistic. "Lowering the lake levels by any significant amount is going to take eight to twelve years," says Wisconsin Sea Grant's Jim Lubner. "Even under the most aggressive plans proposed, we're talking about lowering the levels only a foot or so."

How high will the waters rise? Scientists debated that question at a conference in Racine, Wis., last month. "We agree we can reasonably expect next year's maximum to be ten inches above this year's," says Charles Collinson, principal geologist at the Illinois State Geological Survey. Projections based on long-term weather patterns offer no comfort. Says Collinson: "We agree we can expect high lake levels for six years and possibly even a decade more." Curtis Larsen, a U.S. Geological Survey researcher who has studied the lakes' ebb and flow dating back 7,000 years, predicts Lake Michigan may ultimately reach 585 ft., three feet above this year's record breaker. If that happens, streets would be submerged, sewer systems would be badly damaged, and tens of thousands of homes would be destroyed.

With reporting by Reported by J. Madeleine Nash/Chicago