Suspending Their Judgment a Time Poll Shows

By Jacob V. Lamar Jr.

Ever the trouper, Ronald Reagan is back on the campaign trail this fall, urging voters to choose Republicans in November's Senate races lest his conservative revolution be stymied by a Democratic majority. "I can't have my hands tied by a totally hostile Congress," Reagan has told audiences in California, Colorado, Louisiana and Alabama.

But the President's message may not be getting through, according to a survey conducted for TIME this month by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman.* Despite Reagan's still spectacular popularity, few people seem persuaded by his endorsements of congressional candidates: 70% of those questioned said a presidential speech urging them to choose a certain candidate would make no difference in how they voted. In fact, 73% of Republicans said they would be utterly unswayed by the Reagan seal of approval.

On the eve of the final election of the Reagan presidency, the TIME survey found the proportion of Democrats to Republicans has continued to shrink. In 1980, fully 49% of those surveyed called themselves Democrats and only 28% Republicans. Today the numbers are 34% and 24%. While in 1980, 23% of the respondents said they did not belong to either party, today the figure has grown to 42%. But the historic realignment that some political observers predicted after the President's 1984 landslide re-election has not yet occurred. Instead, the U.S. is undergoing a process that might be called "dealignment." Only 19% of Americans say they are "loyal Democrats who vote mostly for Democratic candidates," and a mere 13% describe themselves as loyal Republican voters. Three out of five people claim they switch between the parties in the voting booth.

This lack of political loyalty reflects contradictory attitudes about the strengths and weaknesses of the two parties. Asked which party can better deal with the problems facing the country, 28% of respondents cite the Republicans and 21% the Democrats (46% say there is no real difference between the two). But when Americans are asked which party is better at looking out for people's interests in their area, the numbers

reverse: 34% say the Democrats, 19% the Republicans.

Generally, people believe the Republicans are more competent than the Democrats on economic issues: in keeping the country strong and prosperous (the G.O.P. leads 37% to 23%), dealing with inflation (32% to 18%) and reducing the federal-budget deficit (28% to 23%). The Democrats are considered more reliable on social issues: in ensuring the rights of women and minorities (38% to 15%), providing jobs for the unemployed (37% to 20%), and helping the middle class (37% to 24%). On foreign policy, Republicans are viewed as being better at dealing with the Soviet Union (37% to 20%), but Democrats and Republicans are considered about even in terms of keeping the country out of war (28% and 26% respectively).

This ambivalence means that the November elections are likely to produce what Republican Political Analyst Kevin Phillips calls a "transitional electorate" without a strong commitment either to the status quo or to change. When the TIME survey asked respondents how they would vote "if the election were held right now," 37% chose the Democrats and 33% the Republicans. A large number, 26%, were undecided. Independent voters leaned to the Republican candidates, 31% to 26%, with 39% undecided.

Tax reform seems to have solid support among Americans: 61% of those familiar with the bill before Congress think it will be good for the country -- although only 15% believe it will reduce their taxes and just 21% that it will make filling out tax forms any easier. The survey found that candidates who support protectionist trade legislation and tougher sanctions against South Africa are likely to win votes.

The most popular political position among voters is cutting Government spending. The least popular: raising taxes to reduce the deficit. The survey found that 65% of Americans would be more likely to select a candidate who favors "automatic reductions in Government spending to reduce the federal deficit." But that does not mean candidates have a sure issue in support ing the Gramm-Rudman budget-cutting approach: 56% said they would be more likely to vote for someone who favors "more Government spending for social programs to help lower-income Americans."

This contradiction is a familiar problem to political analysts. Says Phillips: "People will support the cuts in general as long as they affect someone else's programs and not theirs." To Democratic Pollster Paul Maslin "it's a classic case of people wanting their cake and eating it too."

Looking toward 1988, the poll indicates that the general good feelings of the Reagan era will have little impact on how Americans choose their next President. Three in five respondents believe that the country is better off now than in 1980 and that they personally are better off as well. Rating the President on a scale of 1 to 10, 64% gave him at least a 6. Yet when presented with the statement "The country will be better off if the next President follows the same policies that President Reagan has followed," Americans are split: 44% agree and 43% disagree. They are also split over the statement "After President Reagan leaves office, we should have a new policy direction in Government," with 42% agreeing and 42% disagreeing.

Nor has Reagan's popular aura rubbed off on other Republicans. When presented with the statement, "Given President Reagan's success in governing the country, we should stick with a Republican as our next President," 52% disagreed and 30% agreed. The response was pretty much the same to the declaration, "After eight years of having a Republican as President, it would be better if our next President were a Democrat." Fifty percent disagreed and 33% agreed.

A discrepancy has long existed between approval for Reagan as President and support for his policies. The gap was evident even during the 1984 re-election campaign, and it may be growing. Republican Phillips thinks that support remains stable for the general outline of Reaganism. But two years ago, says Phillips, "even more Americans would have wanted Reagan's policies to be continued. Now, with problems in agriculture, the trade pattern and the endless budget and deficit crises, Americans have even greater doubts."

Democratic Pollster Maslin also sees "a real division between people's feelings about policy, national leadership and Ronald Reagan. Democrats cannot make the mistake of insisting that Reagan's policies are always rejected, and therefore that no part of his program should be continued." In 1988, he thinks, voters will be looking for the "strength of leadership" that Reagan demonstrated, without wanting a "rubber stamp for everything he did." As the TIME survey demonstrates, the November races might be considered simply a prelude to the real battle for the soul of the nation two years from now.

FOOTNOTE: *The survey was conducted by telephone Sept. 8-10 with 1,014 Americans 18 years of age or older. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When comparisons are made with the results of previous polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.

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