The Philippines Storybook Rise, Uncertain Future

By Pico Iyer

At the beginning, good fortune seemed to take her by the hand. Almost overnight, she in turn promised her countrymen a new world of integrity, democracy and grace. In the twelve weeks since she toppled Ferdinand Marcos, Philippine President Corazon Aquino has disbanded the discredited Marcos- controlled National Assembly and replaced the deposed dictator's self- serving 1973 constitution with a provisional "Freedom Constitution" of her own. She has converted the presidential Malacanang Palace into a public museum of her predecessor's egregious extravagance, and last week, in her first press conference with foreign reporters, the new leader displayed a characteristic blend of sincerity and firmness rarely seen during the Marcos era. "If nothing else," she said, "I think I should be given credit for having helped remove Mr. Marcos from office."

The single most important feature of Aquino's new government, however, may be the one thing it shares with the Marcos regime: a staggering agenda of problems that include a $26.2 billion foreign debt, the military threat posed by 16,000 Communist insurgents and a political system crippled by two decades of corruption. Though Aquino has committed no major blunders, she has yet to answer the questions that will arise once her honeymoon ends. "Her credibility is high in terms of popular support," says Edgardo Angara, president of the University of the Philippines. "What may be a little unsettling to some people is the question of whether that credibility is backed up by the political ability to manage."

The most fundamental issue before Aquino is how to undertake a thoroughgoing purge of Marcos' corrupt legacy without seeming authoritarian. On the local level, for example, the new government has already removed 71 of the 74 governors and 52 of the 60 city mayors who belong to Marcos' party. But in discharging them so peremptorily, the President has sparked complaints that she is indulging a Marcos-like self-interest. "I thought she was going to be a nonpartisan President," grumbles Richard Gordon, the dynamic young mayor of Olangapo, who was replaced by an Aquino appointee. "But it's still personality politics that prevails here."

The Augean mess left by Marcos has proved even more paralyzing in the economic sphere. Although Aquino's very presence has helped to restore the confidence of the international business community, new investments have been slow to arrive. By one estimate, the government would have to maintain a formidable 6.3% annual growth rate just to repay on schedule a fortune in foreign loans. Meanwhile, roughly 45% of the work force is underemployed, and two of every three Filipinos live below the poverty line.

Aquino's most urgent task, however, may be to consolidate control over the military as it tries to beat back the guerrillas of the New People's Army. The President has moved briskly to restore the credibility of the military by retiring more than half the country's 103 generals and placing new commanders in all four of the armed services. But here too the government is divided. Aquino's 26-member Cabinet includes both military hard-liners like Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile, the architect of martial law during the Marcos regime, and human rights activists who wish to investigate alleged army offenses. The rift between the civilian and the military factions has been seized upon by the Communists as yet another reason not to accept Aquino's invitation to disarm. "How can she secure her share of responsibility in the negotiations," says Communist Party Founder Jose Maria Sison, "without having full control of the armed forces?"

The ongoing struggle in the countryside remains the principal concern of Washington, which has seemed decidedly cool toward the Aquino government. On his way to meet the new President two weeks ago, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz declared, without much conviction, "Well, I assume she's in control." Nonetheless, the Administration has been increasingly impressed with the calm authority of the former homemaker, and recently pledged an additional $150 million in aid to Manila. "She's surprising us in some ways," said one Washington official. "She also seems clearly preferable to any of the alternatives." That much has been underlined by the troublesome presence in Hawaii of Marcos, whose payment of supporters to stir up unrest in Manila has irritated even the usually imperturbable Shultz. "He's causing trouble," declared the Secretary of State last week, "and some of it goes beyond just argument."

In running her Cabinet, whose members are drawn from most shades of the political rainbow, Aquino has largely chosen to delegate responsibility. The very diversity of the group, she claims, is an example of democracy in action. But hers remains a treacherous tightrope walk. Says Leandro Alejandro, the secretary-general of Bayan, the leftist political alliance: "If she goes to the right, she will lose a lot of her popularity, but if she goes to the left, the U.S. will not stand for it. And if she fights the military, she might end up in exile."

In the end, however, the new leader may mostly be a victim of her single great achievement: returning political freedom to the Philippines. It was Aquino, after all, who released Sison from jail, along with some 500 other political prisoners. She also permitted Marcos loyalists to protest her rule for three straight weeks in the streets of Manila. And she has actively encouraged the open questioning that Marcos so forcefully muzzled. "Less than 100 days is not enough time for a government to produce an impact," says Businessman Leonardo Alejandrino, "especially a government that almost by its own admission was not ready to hold office. But it is a long enough time for the euphoria to start wearing thin." Fortune may have lent a hand with the storybook beginning, but it is up to Aquino alone to secure a happy ending.

With reporting by Sandra Burton and Nelly Sindayen/ Manila