A Breezy Theme

By William E. Smith

Slowly, deliberately, Ronald Reagan made his way westward from Hawaii through Indonesia last week as he headed toward Tokyo for his summit meeting with Western and Japanese leaders. The topics for the Tokyo meeting, which began on Sunday afternoon and was to continue through this Tuesday, were hard and pressing: trade, economic planning, the need to coordinate tough action against terrorism and, in the wake of Chernobyl, international safeguards against nuclear-power catastrophes. But Reagan's three-day stopover on the Indonesian resort island of Bali gave him a chance to highlight more visionary concepts, most notably his belief that the "winds of freedom" are blowing across the Pacific Rim and that democracy should be encouraged to flower among America's allies.

Reagan's breezy theme had a slightly familiar ring, harking back to Harold Macmillan's 1960 "wind of change" speech in Cape Town, in which the then British Prime Minister predicted the end of the colonial era in Africa. The words served as a reasonably suitable catchphrase for the President's longest journey since he took office (some 22,300 miles through twelve time zones). The trip carried him to a vast region in which one right-wing dictator, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, has recently been ousted and in which democratic stirrings have rippled through several other countries. Though a bit of turbulence complicated the trip, Reagan maintained that bracing winds were clearing the Pacific air.

Reagan encountered the first of the rough patches during the weekend he spent in Honolulu resting up in a pre-emptive strike against jet lag. The President placed a prearranged telephone call to Marcos, who has been living in Hawaii since his hasty departure from Manila two months ago. Aware that the call could cause criticism, Reagan had taken care to telephone Corazon Aquino before leaving Washington a couple of days earlier. Some White House aides thought the call to Marcos was an unnecessary exercise, but Reagan still regards the ousted Philippine leader as a longtime U.S. ally who deserves a decent measure of hospitality.

Though the Administration had hoped to downplay the gesture, Marcos aides shrewdly invited a local TV crew to film the start of the conversation. "I'm so happy that you are calling, Mr. President," declared the beaming Marcos. The exiled leader has been taking an increasingly active role in Philippine politics of late, even to the point of telephoning a speech to a throng of Marcos demonstrators in Manila. In his conversation with Reagan, Marcos attempted to win U.S. approval for a return to the Philippines, a request the President gently but firmly turned aside. Then a weeping Imelda Marcos got on the phone to Nancy Reagan, complaining about the vilification of the Marcoses in the press and her sense of imprisonment in Hawaii. According to some White House aides, the half-hour conversation proved to be unexpectedly discomfiting to the President and even more so to his wife.

Another mini-crisis arose when the Reagan party arrived in Bali. The Indonesian government, despite quiet but vigorous pressure from the traveling White House, refused to admit two Australian journalists who were covering the presidential visit. The same day, Indonesia summarily expelled a New York Times correspondent, Bangkok-based Barbara Crossette. The reasons in both cases apparently stemmed from the government's sensitivity over foreign-press accounts of Indonesian corruption and human rights violations (see box). Deciding that it was best not to provoke a public showdown, the White House said it would pursue the matter.

While Nancy Reagan visited a group of Balinese exhibits within the safe confines of the Nusa Dua Beach Hotel complex and made a game try at Balinese dancing, her husband met with Indonesian President Suharto and the foreign ministers of the six members of the 19-year-old Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)--Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. Early in his speech, Reagan told an anecdote about two men who are running away from a bear they encountered in a forest. When one man stops to put on his running shoes, the other asks incredulously, "You don't think that by putting on those shoes, you're going to outrun that bear?" To which the second man replies, "I don't have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you." As the ministers laughed, Reagan continued, "We won't put on running shoes. Standing together, we can make certain the people of this region remain free and secure."

In subsequent talks, the delegates mainly discussed economic problems. The nations of the ASEAN alliance together rank as the fifth-largest U.S. trading partner, having increased two-way trade from $967 million in 1967 to $23.5 billion last year. The Administration is delighted that these free-market nations have far outperformed their Marxist neighbors, but is concerned that since 1983 the bottom has fallen out of practically all the region's export commodities, not the least of which is oil. As a group, the ASEAN delegates called for more American investment. In response, the U.S. asked for an easing of trade restrictions.

While in Bali, Reagan had his first direct contact with a high official of President Corazon Aquino's new Philippine government, spending about 35 minutes with Vice President and Foreign Minister Salvador Laurel. Their encounter apparently produced friction as well as understanding. Laurel's complaint: Washington's fainthearted support of the Aquino government was creating "cobwebs of doubt." After the meeting, Secretary of State George Shultz, in one of his splenetic moods, tartly criticized Laurel's demand for increased U.S. aid on top of the additional $150 million that had been promised a week earlier. Said Shultz: "Vice President Laurel, I must say, gave the impression that his needs were infinite, and we don't have an infinite capacity to provide money." Reagan's phone call to Marcos may have contributed to Laurel's cobwebs of doubt. But the real problem in U.S.-Philippine relations is not Marcos. Rather, it stems from Administration unease over whether the Aquino government can effectively deal with the country's continuing Communist insurgency. At least 500 Filipinos have been killed in guerrilla fighting since Aquino came to power, and U.S. officials believe the number of insurgents may actually have increased to 22,500. While the insurgency has not necessarily grown worse under Aquino, neither has the security situation improved dramatically, as some had expected, with the fall of Marcos.

Underlying Reagan's meetings with ASEAN ministers and his rhetoric about the winds of freedom were tough questions about human rights and democratic reforms among America's allies in the region. Despite Reagan's grand pronouncements, the Administration takes a pragmatic view concerning the internal affairs of its Third World allies, encouraging reforms where practical while pressing the view that economic growth and the strengthening of a middle class will lead to a growing commitment to democracy (see ESSAY). What is unusual at the moment is the range of Asian nations, apart from the Philippines, where signs of democratic unrest are being seen. For example:

In South Korea, after months of opposition political activity, President Chun Doo Hwan said last week that he would conditionally agree to opposition demands that the constitution be changed before his term expires in 1988. Among the proposed changes: the adoption of direct, popular presidential elections.

In Taiwan a growing movement of government opponents commonly known as tangwai (outside the party) looms as an unofficial challenger to the ruling Kuomintang. The government of President Chiang Ching-kuo, 85, considers the country to be in a state of emergency and will not give the dissidents official status as a political party. The news last week that a pacemaker had been implanted in Chiang's chest is bound to encourage those impatient for change.

In Singapore the remarkable 21-year rule of Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, 63, is winding down. Lee has talked about retiring in 1988, or perhaps taking over as President. Reluctant to surrender power to the younger leaders he himself has picked, Lee boasts, "The master controls are still with me." But probably not for long.

In Pakistan a democratic change of power may be in the making. Opposition Politician Benazir Bhutto, 32, returned from exile last month to confront the country's military ruler, President Mohammed Zia ul-Haq. Nine years ago, Zia seized power from Benazir's father, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and two years later allowed Bhutto to be executed following his conviction on charges of conspiracy to murder an opposition politician. Benazir quickly demonstrated that she possesses her father's courage and political flair, as well as his headstrong nature. Pakistanis rallied to her by the hundreds of thousands. The next move, in a country whose nearly 40-year political history has been a tug-of-war between the generals and the politicians, is likely to be an effort by Benazir, through strikes and mass demonstrations, to step up the pressure on Zia to call elections.

In Thailand, after his coalition government was defeated on a crucial parliamentary vote in a domestic political fight, Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda dissolved the National Assembly and called elections for July.

On Friday, while Mrs. Reagan made brief ceremonial visits to Malaysia and Thailand, the President flew north to the Tokyo summit. A few days earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone had called on his countrymen to "pause and reflect on your own life-style" as a preliminary step toward restructuring the economy away from its dependence on exports. That was good news to the Reagan Administration, which last week reported that the March U.S. trade deficit had widened by $2 billion, to $14.5 billion, with the deficit in trade with Japan setting an all-time one-month record of $5.5 billion. In Tokyo on Saturday, Reagan called on Nakasone, and the two discussed ways of resolving the imbalance.

In assessing the trip thus far, the President's imagemakers were well aware that, instead of worldwide headlines heralding Reagan's efforts and Asia's commitment to free trade and economic growth, the only real news from Bali had concerned Administration reaction to the Soviet nuclear disaster. But they were also aware that his discussions at the summit, with or without headlines, could affect the nature of international trade for years to come.

With reporting by Sandra Burton and Barrett Seaman/Bali