The South Shall Rise Again "Mega

By Evan Thomas

The last time the Southern states formally banded together to assert their political will, the Civil War broke out. Nothing quite so cataclysmic is likely to ensue from Dixie's creation of a "Mega Tuesday," the first great regional primary. But the rush of Southern and Border states to join in a plan to hold primaries on the same Tuesday early in the 1988 election season--March 8, to be precise--could produce the greatest change in the way party nominees are chosen since the reform movement of the 1970s.

For the past two decades, Southern political leaders as divergent as Jimmy Carter and George Wallace have been talking about the need for their region to exercise greater clout in picking candidates for the White House. First, in 1972, Florida held an early-March primary. When Alabama and Georgia climbed / aboard in 1980, the result was what came to be known in the last presidential election as Super Tuesday. Over the past year, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee decided to stage primaries on the second Tuesday in March. Mississippi is expected to follow suit in the next week or two. If, as anticipated, several other Southern states--including North Carolina and, most prominently, Texas--get on the bandwagon, then Super Tuesday will need a new superlative.

All in all, a dozen or so Southern states are expected to hold primaries or caucuses during the second week of March. Almost one-third of the delegates at the nominating conventions will be on the line. Duke University Political Scientist Joel Fleishman calls the regional primary "a logical extension of the South trying to find its place in the sun." Texas State Senator John Traeger, chairman of the Southern Legislative Conference and a leading proponent of the Mega Tuesday idea, puts it even more emphatically: "The South has risen again."

The impetus has come largely from the Democrats, who control all the Southern state legislatures and thus have the power to set primary dates. They have long felt that the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in February give the Snow Belt an inordinate voice in picking the party's nominee. A Southern primary, they hope, will amplify their region's voice and enhance prospects that the Democrats will nominate a centrist, someone who can win back significant Southern real estate and thereby shatter what has become the modern G.O.P. base of presidential politics: most of the old Confederacy as well as much of the West. With the Democratic Party groping through an identity crisis in the wake of two landslide losses to Ronald Reagan, Southern Democrats see an opening to reshape the party in an image more to their liking. "It's a risk," says Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee, "but when you lose 49 states, it's time to take some risks."

Maybe so, but in politics the only sure rule is the law of unintended consequences. Among them:

Rather than diminish the clout of Iowa and New Hampshire, the Southern primary may actually enhance it. Only three weeks separate New Hampshire and Mega Tuesday, and recent history shows that victory feeds on itself when the tests come rapid-fire. Says Republican Hopeful Congressman Jack Kemp: "You tell me who wins the New Hampshire primary, and I'll tell you who the Southern regional primary favors." The biggest beneficiary of the Southern primary may not be a centrist candidate like, say, Gary Hart, but the fiery symbol of the party's left wing: Jesse Jackson. While three or four middle-of-the-roaders are divvying up most of the white vote, Jackson could not only pick up a number of white votes but also score heavily among blacks, who make up nearly a quarter of the South's voters. The Jackson factor is cited by one leading contender for the Democratic nomination, New York Governor Mario Cuomo. "If Southern voters do coalesce around a regional candidate, say a (Senator) Sam Nunn (of Georgia) or (former Governor) Chuck Robb (of Virginia), they would strike a real blow," says Cuomo. "But that will be tough, in my mind, for any one candidate to bring off."

As an ethnic New Yorker often tagged as a liberal, Cuomo might seem poorly served by a Southern sweepstakes. But in an interview with TIME Correspondent Robert Ajemian, he insisted that regional issues and loyalties do not count for much in the age of TV. "I don't see a set of fundamental values that make Southerners different from Northerners. Let's use (Massachusetts Governor) Mike Dukakis as an example. What would he talk about? He'd talk about coming from struggle. Southerners would understand that. He'd talk about hard work, values, family. They'd understand that. He'd talk about decent respect for law and order. He'd talk about firmness but kindness too." Substitute the name Mario Cuomo for Mike Dukakis, and you have an idea what the New Yorker might talk about down South in 1988.

By synchronizing one big blowout early in the campaign season, the South risks losing its leverage down the long road to the conventions in July and August. After Mega Tuesday, candidates will have little reason to address Southern voters' concerns until autumn.

Whatever the ultimate consequences of Mega Tuesday, the Southern primary seems likely to inspire imitators in other regions during the coming months. Already politicians in New Jersey and California, whose primaries come last on the campaign trail, are talking of switching from early June to April. South Dakota has already decided to hold a primary in late February, even though the Democratic National Committee has decreed that only Iowa and New Hampshire should be entitled to a February head start. Colorado Governor Richard Lamm, chairman of the Western Governors' Association, last month sent letters to 15 other Governors pushing the idea of a Western regional primary. Says former Democratic Party Chairman Robert Strauss: "Other states are going to think about their schedules, and we'll probably see more changes. It will add to the confusion. This is going to be one son of a gun of an election."

Bunching primaries early in the season could shorten the grueling and overlong race. But this so-called front loading may backfire too. Candidates will no longer be able to concentrate on just a few states early on and hope to build momentum. They will have to be active in many states all at once. The effect could be to lengthen, not shorten, the campaign season. As it is, Michigan's complex process of picking Republican delegates gets under way this summer, and 1987 is shaping up as a flat-out campaign year. All of which will favor well-financed, well-organized front runners like Vice President George Bush and make it harder for a promising but underfunded dark horse to break into the front ranks.

Is there a better way? A bill introduced in Congress by Democratic Congressman Sander Levin of Michigan would take over the timing of primaries from the states and set up a series of "interregional" primaries spaced at regular intervals from March to June. The state groupings--one from the East, say, one from the Midwest, a couple from the South, and so on--would be selected randomly at first and then rotate dates in succeeding elections. That might seem entirely too rational and equitable. For better or worse, the slapdash and shifting process that ends up choosing presidential nominees is far more likely to be determined by states jealously vying for an inside position.

With reporting by Laurence I. Barrett/Washington and Don Winbush/Atlanta