"There Is Deep, Deep Opposition"

After Robert Leiken returned last week from a five-day trip to Nicaragua with Les Aspin, a Democratic Congressman from Wisconsin, he spoke with TIME White House Correspondent Barrett Seaman. Excerpts from his remarks:

On the Sandinistas. It is now clear to me that from the beginning the overwhelming majority of this group was not just Marxist-Leninist but strongly proSoviet and particularly pro-Cuban. In the contra camps we visited, they used the term engano, which means "we were tricked, we were hoaxed." The Sandinistas have not only lost popular support, I think they are detested by the population.

On contra support within Nicaragua. I have gone to a number of towns in Nicaragua where I have found that the youth are simply not there. I ask their parents where they've gone, and they say they've gone off to join the contras. We stopped at a breadline in Managua. There were about 250 people. We asked them how long they had been there. About three hours. Had they had breadlines like this before the Sandinistas? No, just in the past two years. We asked who was responsible, and finally one woman said, "Come on, tell the truth: the Sandinistas are responsible." And everyone said, "That's right." It is very, very clear there is deep, deep opposition to the Sandinistas.

On the size of the contra force. Despite their shortcomings, the contras are an authentic army of Nicaraguans, mainly peasants, fighting for their liberty against a repressive tyranny supported and maintained in power by the Soviet Union. The contras are many times larger than the Sandinistas ever were. If you put the major leftist insurgencies in Latin America together, they still wouldn't add up to as many as the contras.

On why the contras need U.S. support. They're facing a military machine that, after the Cubans, is the most sophisticated and best trained in Latin America, far and away the biggest in Central America. You need people, but you've also got tohave equipment. Another way of looking at it is that it's stunning that they've done as well as they have in the face of a very sophisticated state security system. There's a morale factor too. They feel the other side has got a superpower committed to it, whereas the U.S. is ambivalent.

On contra reform. Right now, the Nicaraguan Democratic Force (F.D.N., the largest contra army) and United Nicaraguan Opposition (the main contra political organization) are a little bit like the tail wagging the dog. The military has to become subordinate to U.N.O. It's also important that the military be represented, so it's not just a bunch of politicians running the army. There is also a need for unity with other groups. One reason for the success of the Sandinistas is that they've been fighting a one-front war.

Reform is most important in the F.D.N., which has been accused of human rights violations. Reform would have a very practical military and diplomatic effect on a lot of Nicaraguans who left the country. These are middle- and working-class people who have expressed a desire to fight but who are afraid that the F.D.N. would create another dictatorship. Beyond Nicaragua, if the contras were acceptable to Latin Americans, then the Latin Americans would stop using Central America as their way to express anger at the U.S.

On the Roman Catholic Church. The church has been a traditional refuge for national patriotic sentiment in Nicaragua, but it is now in deep trouble. The Sandinistas have taken over their welfare office and shut down their radio and press.

On a possible U.S. invasion. It would be an enormous historical mistake. It would completely polarize the U.S. It would set back the American image in Latin America and in Europe. But I don't think the Sandinistas would put up the kind of resistance most people think. This idea that we're getting dragged into a military situation that can't be won is based too much on historical analogies. It's understandable; the U.S. went through a real trauma over Viet Nam.

On the analogy to Viet Nam. More and more, my sense is the Nicaraguans feel that the outside imperialist powers are the Soviet Union and Cuba. This is a popular struggle, but the people are on the U.S. side this time. Plus you've got rugged terrain, and you've got countries on two borders that supply sanctuaries. Finally, the geopolitical situation is favorable to the U.S. It's the Soviets who have long logistical lines, not us. I think the contras have a chance of winning if we have a stable, bipartisan policy of support.