A Democratic Domino Effect?

They flashed the now familiar "L" sign used by Corazon Aquino's followers in the Philippines and chanted antigovernment slogans similar to those that recently rang out in Manila. Inspired by Aquino's success in toppling Filipino Strongman Ferdinand Marcos, more than 4,000 South Koreans last week marched in Seoul, hoping to bring the same kind of democratic people power to their country. Said Leading Dissident Kim Dae Jung: "As the Argentine situation has affected other Latin American countries in their struggle for democratization, the Philippine situation will have a domino effect on other Asian countries fighting for democracy."

The rally, the largest antigovernment demonstration since President Chun Doo Hwan grabbed power six years ago, was called by the opposition New Korea Democratic Party. It has launched a campaign to sign up 10 million people to back constitutional reforms that would permit direct election of the President instead of the current electoral-college system, which favors the government. Chun insists that this will jeopardize the country's political stability, and has refused to allow an amendment until after the elections and the summer Olympic Games, which will be held in South Korea in 1988.

In another development, Stephen Cardinal Kim Sou Hwan, the Roman Catholic primate of South Korea, last week endorsed the calls for reform. The Philippine Catholic Church played an important role in toppling Marcos. "There are no reasons why the revisions should be delayed," said Cardinal Kim. "We have to bring democracy to Korea urgently." Added Dissident Kim Young Sam, an N.K.D.P. adviser: "To delay democratization is to deny it."

Despite the proximity of the two countries, differences between them far outweigh similarities. Discontent in South Korea has just begun to surface. And although Cardinal Kim's words may carry moral weight, Roman Catholics account for less than 5% of the South Korean population, while some 85% of Filipinos are Catholic. The Philippine economy had been ravaged by the inept and corrupt bungling of Marcos and his cronies, but South Korean business has thrived under Chun. The former army general also continues to enjoy the support of a strong military.

Perhaps the most important difference between the two countries is that South Korea borders on Communist North Korea. The Communist danger makes it very unlikely that the Reagan Administration would abandon the Chun government. "We are not going to try to foment revolt in South Korea," says one State Department official.

Chun backers in Seoul warn that it is "irresponsible and self-destroying" for opposition politicians to draw parallels between South Korea and the Philippines. Nonetheless, the President has made conciliatory gestures toward the dissidents. At first he threatened to arrest anyone who circulated or signed the constitutional-amendment petition. He later relented, saying that he would permit their campaign if opponents agreed not to engage in street demonstrations. Last week, however, riot police stood on the sidelines, allowing protesters to parade freely through the street of seoul.