Trying to Keep It Clean

By John Moody

"On election day, bring two pieces of bread and a bottle of water. Bring a candle too. You should stay until the voting and the counting are over. If you think these will not do, bring a 2-by-2 piece of wood and protect your ballot with it."

Vice-Presidential Candidate Salvador Laurel, who issues this warning repeatedly at opposition rallies, is not alone in voicing the fear that Ferdinand Marcos will somehow rig the Feb. 7 elections to ensure his victory. The U.S., equally concerned, has insisted that the Marcos government officially accredit the National Citizens Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL), an independent group that helped prevent widespread fraud in the 1984 parliamentary elections, to monitor the balloting. In addition, President Reagan last week appointed a delegation of lawmakers and private citizens to observe the vote. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, agreed to take part in the mission despite some reservations. Said he: "It would be a serious mistake for the United States not to demonstrate its support for democracy in the Philippines." Other lawmakers refused to go on the grounds that any U.S. presence could serve to legitimize a questionable election result.

Marcos enjoys several significant advantages even before the balloting begins. His K.B.L. Party has a campaign war chest of $160 million, six times the amount Corazon Aquino and Laurel have at their disposal. Marcos commands the armed forces, whose troops serve as peacekeepers, and he appoints the Commission on Elections. Most important, perhaps, the President and his supporters own all five television stations in the country, and have imposed a virtual blackout on coverage of the Aquino campaign.

Geographic sprawl and an outdated balloting system make the Philippines susceptible to vote fixing. Of the 90,000 polling stations located on more than 7,000 islands, only a handful have votes tabulated by computer. The majority use paper ballots, manual counting, chalkboard addition and telephone or telex messages to relay the results.

NAMFREL has devised "Operation Quick Count," a monitoring network that relies on sheer numbers. It has recruited 150,000 Filipinos to oversee each step of the elections. Operation Quick Count will start early on election day: voters are being urged to turn up at 7 a.m., when the polls open, to make certain the ballot boxes are empty. Last week, however, the Commission on Elections said it would not allow foreign reporters or "unauthorized" observers to come within 150 ft. of polling places. Says a U.S. expert who traveled to the Philippines last month to study the election process: "It discredits the claim that the government welcomes observers and has nothing to hide."

The biggest danger of fraud, according to NAMFREL Chairman Jose Concepcion, occurs as the padlocked ballot boxes are transported from rural precincts to the municipal halls for canvassing. "On the way, the ballot transporters can make as many stops as they want for snacks, inviting the inspectors along," he says. "Meanwhile, the ballots could be switched or substituted." To prevent such irregularities, Concepcion wants convoys of five to ten cars to accompany the ballot boxes.

Once unlocked, the boxes will be placed on tables in plain view. One by one, the ballots will be counted, and the votes recorded on a blackboard. NAMFREL is suggesting that local residents look over the shoulders of those calling out the votes, surround the blackboard to ensure that the chalk does not slip, and take photographs of the final tallies. The official count will be certified with the thumbprints of observers from both major parties.

No one expects NAMFREL to guarantee a 100% clean election. But experts believe that the citizen poll-watching effort, if properly funded and implemented, should be able to reduce fraud to a tolerable level, especially if Marcos allows Operation Quick Count to publicize returns early enough to prevent massive changes in tallies later on. The best guarantee of fairness, however, is a decisive vote. Opposition tacticians think that unless Aquino commands a 12% to 15% lead when the polls close, Marcos will find a way to alter the results in his favor. By contrast, the President will have to win by a landslide if he hopes to convince his countrymen and the U.S. that his victory is legitimate.

With reporting by Nelly Sindayen/Manila and Alessandra Stanley/Washington