The 70% Solution

By Hunter R. Clark

As Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo, 42, strode into the headquarters of his Christian Democratic Party in downtown Guatemala City last week, he was one step closer to being his country's first elected civilian President in nearly two decades. By garnering almost 39% of the national vote, the charismatic center-left lawyer had outperformed his closest competitor, Newspaper Owner Jorge Carpio Nicolle, 53, of the moderately conservative National Center Union, who finished with 20%. But because he failed to capture an absolute majority, Cerezo must face Carpio in a runoff election on Dec. 8. Buoyed by his impressive showing, Cerezo declared confidently last week, "The second round will be a formality."

Still, almost everyone agrees that Guatemalan military officials will remain the real authority behind the scenes. "In the first six months I'll have 30% of the power," Cerezo told TIME last month. "In the first two years I'll have 50%, and I'll never have more than 70% of the power during my five-year term." Says Guatemala City Archbishop Prospero Penados del Barrio: "Whoever becomes President is going to have to move with great caution. You cannot have a dialogue with the armed forces."

The transition to civilian rule should allow the U.S. to increase military aid to the Guatemalan army, which has been locked in a costly war with leftist guerrillas since the early 1980s. Although the rebels were nearly exterminated in a counterinsurgency drive four years ago, they have grown back to a force of 5,000, according to their own estimate. "The fighting has increased, and will increase no matter who takes office," said a guerrilla spokesman in Guatemala City last week. The heightened activity is most evident in the country's western department of San Marcos and the northern jungles of El Peten.

Because of the ongoing social unrest, private investment in Guatemala has been almost nonexistent during the past five years. Partly as a result, the gross domestic product will drop 2% to 3% this year. The combined rate of joblessness and underemployment climbed from 31% in 1980 to around 44% in 1984. Meanwhile, interest payments on Guatemala's $2.3 billion foreign debt consume roughly 40% of the country's export earnings.

The U.S. Congress has authorized up to $10 million in military aid for Guatemala for fiscal 1986, provided a civilian government can demonstrate progress in reducing political murders and kidnapings. According to the U.S. embassy, only 440 people have died from political violence during the first nine months of this year, compared with 992 in all of 1984. Much of the killing is committed by rightwing death squads and the military. In addition, some 38,000 Guatemalans reportedly have disappeared under mysterious circumstances since 1980.

If he wins, Cerezo has promised, he will pursue peace talks with members of the National Guatemalan Revolutionary Union, an umbrella organization composed of four armed rebel groups. He has also said he will ask the International Monetary Fund to renegotiate the country's foreign debt. Through it all, the military will be watching. Warns one foreign observer: "If chaos starts to set in, the generals will not waste any time taking the government back." --By Hunter R. Clark. Reported by Ricardo Chavira/Guatemala City

With reporting by Reported by Ricardo Chavira/Guatemala City