Rejiggering Old Equations

By William R. Doerner

While the hostage crisis ostensibly revolved around a dispute between Lebanese , Shi'ites and the Israeli government, it was played out against the larger and ever tortured context of Middle East politics. The American diplomacy used in bringing the Beirut drama to a conclusion, moreover, produced some new twists and turns in the labyrinth of Washington's policy in the Middle East, an area of vital but sometimes conflicting U.S. concerns. For the Reagan Administration, the episode revealed some casting changes among principal characters, created some fresh strains between the U.S. and countries in the region, and may have even opened new opportunities for diplomatic progress.

The most clearly enhanced diplomatic position, if only because of such previously abysmal relations with the Reagan Administration, belonged to Syria and its President for the past 14 years, Hafez Assad. In putting his prestige on the line by guaranteeing the safe delivery of the 39 U.S. hostages from their various Shi'ite captors, including the fanatics of Hizballah (Party of God), Assad convincingly demonstrated that he controls many of the levers of power in seemingly chaotic Lebanon. Ronald Reagan acknowledged Syria's "central responsibility" in the successful efforts to free the hostages, and the President also telephoned his thanks to Assad, an ally of both the Soviet Union and Iran. "There's no doubt about it," said a State Department official. "Syria's role was important and positive."

Even so, the evidence that Washington planned to work for a wider diplomatic opening to Syria was mixed at best. State Department Spokesman Bernard Kalb pointedly remarked that Syria remained on the list of countries that the U.S. regards as sponsors of terrorism "because according to reliable reports a number of terrorist organizations have received some form of support" from Damascus. Furthermore, there is no sign that Assad has wavered in his firm opposition to a peace initiative put forward by Jordan's King Hussein and Palestine Liberation Organization Leader Yasser Arafat, which calls for direct negotiations with Israel. Assad is unhappy that Hussein and Arafat are acting without Damascus' consent. The Syrian President also insists that any settlement between Israel and its neighbors must come from an international conference involving all front-line Arab states, the Soviet Union and the U.S., a gathering that Washington and Jerusalem adamantly oppose. In short, said National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane last week in an interview with ABC News, on most Middle East issues there remains "considerable disagreement" between the U.S. and Syria.

Another helping hand in the hostage crisis may have come from Iran, an even less likely source than Syria. Some State Department officials dismissed Tehran's role as negligible. But leaders of Hizballah, which has close ties to Iran and its Islamic revolution, were persuaded somehow to release four hostages who were held apart from the rest of the other TWA passengers. The arm twisting may have been performed by a delegation of Iranian officials visiting Damascus at the time. The prime intermediary would presumably have been its leader, Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, who is reportedly seeking to improve Tehran's rock-bottom diplomatic image and was deeply embarrassed by Hizballah's role in the Beirut hijacking. Tehran, moreover, has reason to appear attentive to the desires of Assad, who has supported Iran in its nearly five-year-old war of attrition with Iraq.

The U.S. decision to press for the closing of the Beirut airport has already put new strains on Washington's relationship with Lebanon, to the extent that the government of Lebanon still exists as a functioning entity. The paralysis of the Lebanese leadership was never clearer than during the hostage crisis, when President Amin Gemayel was able to provide no substantive aid. Instead, Washington early on negotiated directly with Nabih Berri, leader of the Shi'ite Amal militia. Berri emerged from the hostage episode as an ascendant figure in Lebanon's factional struggles, and rising Shi'ite assertiveness will clearly remain a factor in the country's eventual shakeout. Despite the inevitable ballads about the crisis that have sprouted on U.S. radio stations with lyrics like "they're just chicken Shi'ites," the majority of those in that branch of Islam are peaceful and respectable, and Washington will have to take account of their aspirations.

The crisis temporarily drew Washington's attention away from the Middle East peace process, which is painfully slow even without distractions. Last week King Hussein provided a bit of momentum by meeting in the Jordanian resort town of Aqaba with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, leader of the only Arab nation that has concluded a peace treaty with Israel. The two leaders discussed details of the initiative, sponsored jointly by Hussein and Arafat, aimed at establishing a Palestinian homeland on the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip that would somehow be linked to Jordan. Hussein and Arafat are ! scheduled to propose a joint negotiating delegation. The question is whether Arafat can put together a list of prominent Palestinians who are not active in the P.L.O., a move that would intensify radical Arab opposition to his leadership. Washington refuses to bargain directly with that group on the ground that it has never recognized Israel's right to exist.

Caught in cross fire during the crisis, Israel could count few if any gains. It was part of an arrangement that had at least the appearance of making concessions to terrorists, a violation of national policy. Last week, barely a day after the hostages were freed, Israeli officials ordered the repatriation of 300 of the Lebanese detainees, leaving about 460 still awaiting release from Atlit prison. Nor did the Israelis enjoy watching the U.S. becoming indebted to Assad, whom they regard as Jerusalem's most dangerous enemy. Finally, Israel suffered in U.S. public opinion, at least early in the crisis. A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken as the hostages were being released showed that one-third of the sample agreed with the assertion that "the U.S. should reduce its ties to Israel in order to lessen the acts of terrorism against Americans in the Middle East." The same poll, however, showed that the percentage of those who felt Israel had not done enough to help resolve the crisis had fallen from 53% to 37%.

With reporting by William Stewart/Washington and Dean Fischer/Cairo