The "Humpty Dumpty" Budget

"I doubt there's one in a million people who has any idea what's going on here," mused Senate Republican Leader Robert Dole. "And they're probably better off." In the Senate's mysterious manipulation of Ronald Reagan's proposed budget, Dole wound up offering an amendment he actually opposed, and the Republican-controlled Senate seemed to be shredding the very budget package it had worked out with the White House. Conceded Indiana Republican Dan Quayle: "Bit by bit, it's coming unraveled, no two ways about it."

Dole had started the week with a razor-thin victory. Ever since Reagan went on television last month to argue for his compromise budget, designed to cut spending by $300 billion over three years, Dole has been pushing for a Senate vote that would endorse the package as a whole. But the majority leader ran into trouble keeping his own party members in line. After two weeks of exhorting his troops while delaying the vote, he ended up making concessions to a few reluctant Republicans to win a 50-to-49 victory.

The win was largely symbolic. To get it, Dole had promised New York's Alfonse D'Amato and Florida's Paula Hawkins, both Republicans, that he would offer an amendment knocking out any limitations on cost of living (COLA) increases for Social Security recipients. Warned Colorado Republican William Armstrong: "It's a killer amendment . . . a wrecker amendment. It sets the stage for unraveling the whole package." Dole offered the amendment even though he opposed it; he knew that Democrats were poised to introduce the same vote-getting measure and preferred to let Republicans take the credit. The COLA restoration carried, 65 to 34, with eleven of the 22 Republicans up for re-election in 1986 supporting it.

If Social Security recipients were to get their full COLAs, the Senators quickly decided, veterans and retired government employees should also be entitled to theirs. Again Dole introduced this further emasculation of deficit reduction, and it passed easily, 80 to 18. The net effect of restoring all COLAs was to wipe out a projected saving of $34 billion over three years.

Perhaps the most surprising action, however, was the Senate's decision to hold defense spending to this year's level with only a $9.9 billion rise for inflation. Reagan had initially sought a 6% increase beyond the inflation rate. He had compromised with Republican leaders at 3%, or $20 billion. But when Republicans Charles Grassley of Iowa and Mark Hatfield of Oregon urged no increase above inflation, their proposal carried by a 51-to-48 vote.

Now that Dole has paved the way for amendments to the package, nearly 80 may be offered. Republicans alone have 28 ready that would put some $60 billion back into the budget. Support is also growing for a minimum tax on corporations as a way to fund all of the restored budget items.

Dole remained outwardly confident that after all the carnage, members will come to their senses and salvage the original package. But what he felt inwardly might have been inadvertently revealed when he predicted, "We'll put it back together, like Humpty Dumpty." All the King's men, of course, were unable to do that. Whether the President's could do any better remained in doubt.