Marching (Back) to Pretoria

Looking for peace, Botha withdraws troops from Angola

Prime Minister Pieter W. Botha called it "a new era of realism in southern Africa." Although it was only a first, tentative step toward ending the hostilities that have torn the region for decades and prevented neighboring Namibia (SouthWest Africa) from becoming independent, there were hopes last week that this time peace might really be attainable. Starting immediately, Botha announced in Cape Town at the opening of the session of Parliament, South Africa was disengaging its forces from Angola. The statement was itself a good sign; in the past, South Africa has always denied that it even had a military presence in Angola. Botha went on to say that he hoped the gesture would lead to an end of the bush war that has raged and sputtered for 17 years between South African troops and guerrillas of the South-West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO), which is recognized by the United Nations as the official representative of Namibia. Botha's decision was made more dramatic by the fact that his government had just completed what it called a victorious five-week invasion of Angola in pursuit of SWAPO forces. But the costs of the military campaign, as well as of South Africa's continued occupation of Namibia in defiance of the U.N., had simply become too high, he explained. The tab this year:

$1.5 billion, nearly 10% of South Africa's annual budget.

Said Botha: "South Africa is no longer prepared to shoulder the tremendous financial burden of South-West Africa alone." Human costs were high as well.

Twenty-one soldiers were killed in the latest incursion, the highest toll for a single South African military maneuver since 1976. The Johannesburg Sunday Express offered a national prayer: "Lord, spare us from victory. The year has begun with another victory in a war we are destined to lose." Botha's disengagement pleased the Reagan Administration, which has been working to effect an overall settlement in the area that would eventually lead to the removal from Angola of Cuba's 26,000 troops and advisers. In recent weeks, U.S. officials have engaged in talks with representatives of both Angola and South Africa in the Cape Verde Islands.

Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Chester Crocker visited Cape Town two weeks ago for talks with Prime Minister Botha and his Foreign Minister, Roelof ("Pik") Botha. The Prime Minister told Parliament that the government's decision to disengage was based, at least partly, on "assurances" received from the U.S. Just what those assurances were is unclear, but presumably Angola promised Washington that it would attempt to restrain the SWAPO guerrillas during the disengagement period.

Botha declared that a Cuban withdrawal was "far in the future." But Angola is in serious economic straits and may be as eager to end the conflict as is South Africa. What the U.S. hopes for, as a senior American diplomat put it, is a "sea change" of attitude in the region. "It is people's behavior that will count." Now that South Africa has made its move, U.S. officials hope that a trial cease-fire of 30 days can be prolonged. For that to happen, there would have to be cooperative understanding among all parties. At present, no one can be sure whether Botha's withdrawal is a first step toward peace, or the only one.