Highs for Mondale and Reagan

By Evan Thomas

A TIME poll also shows growing concern about nuclear war

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination between Walter Mondale and John Glenn, almost neck and neck just three months ago, shows signs of becoming a runaway. According to a poll taken for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc.,* the former Vice President's lead over the Ohio Senator, a narrow 28% to 26% in September, has stretched to a gaping 34% to 18% among Democrats and independent voters. Among Democrats alone, Mondale does even better: 39% to 16%. In the poll of Democrats and independents, the other candidates trail badly: George McGovern and Jesse Jackson are at 6%; Alan Cranston and Gary Hart at 2%; and Reubin Askew and Fritz Rollings bring up the rear, at 1%. But one-quarter are still undecided, and polls this early in the campaign tend heavily to reflect name recognition of the candidates.

Glenn's strategy has been to portray himself as an independent, forward-thinking centrist and paint Mondale as an oldfashioned, big-spending liberal who cannot say no to special-interest groups. But the voters, Democrats included, still find Glenn and Mondale almost indistinguishable politically, except that Mondale is seen as the more experienced leader (37% to 16%). The two rate about the same in "avoiding giving in to pressure from special-interest groups" and "going for the right solutions and not sticking to party positions." Neither is given high marks for "bringing new and fresh solutions."

While Mondale has risen in the polls, so has the man he seeks to unseat, Ronald Reagan. The President is riding a tide of good feeling generated by the robust economic recovery. About 60% of those responding to the poll "feel that things are going well these days," while about one-third were as sanguine a year ago. In fact, the country's mood is better than at any other time in the past six years. Nonetheless, the number of those who say that they feel "a lot of confidence in the future" (35%) has remained virtually unchanged all year. Public Opinion Analyst Daniel Yankelovich says that most Americans have still not regained the innate optimism that marked the 1950s and early '60s.

Matching the public mood, Reagan's favorable rating stands at 60%, up from 45% last March and his best showing since December 1981. Most cite domestic issues, particularly lowered inflation, as the cause of their improved opinions.

Perhaps in recognition of Reagan's current edge on economic matters, Mondale is planning to stress foreign policy issues in a series of speeches over the next month. The poll indicates that the public will be listening intently. In the past, economic issues were considered far more potent politically than foreign affairs. But now people have begun to worry about events abroad. In responding to the question of what were the main problems facing the nation, 31% said the danger of war, while 27% cited unemployment. Almost as many (18%) were concerned about the Middle East and the nuclear arms race as about inflation (20%). In January 1981, by contrast, more than 80% of the public focused on domestic issues, while only one-third were primarily concerned with public affairs.

The U.S. invasion of Grenada had a cathartic effect on a public frustrated by the post-Viet Nam feeling of military impotence. By 58% to 32%, those polled said the invasion was in the best interests of the nation. Fully 64% of those who favored the action cited as the reason for their approval the simple feeling that it was "important for the nation to assert itself."

Feelings are more mixed about the presence of U.S. Marines in Lebanon. Slightly more (49% to 44%) want to keep the troops there than bring them home, but those who want the troops out appear to feel more strongly than those who want them to stay. While voters welcome the Administration's new assertiveness, however, they do not want it to go too far. In September, just after the shooting down of the Korean Air Lines jet, 57% agreed that "we have to weaken the Soviet economy and their military power even at the risk of nuclear war." Now only 46% agree with that statement. When asked what are the important goals for the nation, 67% picked "reducing the risk of nuclear war," more than chose any other goal.

The public shows little confidence in the President's peace-keeping abilities. When the public judges Reagan's handling of the major issues, he gets positive ratings on all but one: his ability to keep the country out of war. (Though 26% think there is a good chance he will "keep us out of war," 33% do not.) Further more, while Reagan's ratings have improved in virtually every other category since last September, they have declined in this most crucial one.

For the Democrats, the war jitters could be an opening to exploit. So far, Democrats overall are rated somewhat better at reducing the risk of a nuclear war than are Republicans (32% to 24%), but their edge has dropped slightly since September, when it stood at 34% to 20%. While one-third give Reagan low marks on his ability to keep the country out of war, Mondale is graded poorly in this field by only 9% and Glenn by only 8%. The Democrats consistently outscore the Republicans on social issues like education, the environment and civil rights.

But the Democrats have struck out on another issue they have stressed: reduction of the huge federal deficit. The public has even less faith that the Democrats will balance the budget than that the Republicans will. Nor do voters seem to care much about a balanced budget. While reducing the risk of nuclear war ranked No. 1 as a national goal, a balanced budget ranked 13th, behind such expensive items as providing quality health care and keeping U.S. defenses strong.

--By Evan Thomas

* The findings are based on a telephone survey from Dec. 6 to Dec. 8 of 1,000 registered voters. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When compared with the results of previous polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.