Campaigning by the Numbers

By WALTER ISAACSON

A TIME poll shows Glenn and Mondale close and Reagan up

While Walter Mondale has more money and a far better campaign organization, John Glenn can take solace in figures. He is running a close second to the former Vice President, and each draws more support from Democrats and independent voters than all of the other contenders for their party's presidential nomination combined. But as the Democrats jostle and jockey on the hustings, the man they seek to unseat remains an elusive and increasingly formidable target. Ronald Reagan, ambling along at his own aw-shucks pace toward announcing for reelection, has perked up his poll ratings with a personal popularity that continues to outpace that of his policies or his party.

These are the main findings of a survey of American voters conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc. * When Democrats and independents were asked whom they preferred for the nomination, 28% picked Mondale and 26% chose Glenn, essentially the same support that each enjoyed when the summer began. The rest of the pack includes former Senator George McGovern, the 1972 nominee, with 8%; Civil Rights Leader Jesse Jackson, still mulling over whether to announce his candidacy, with 5%; California Senator Alan Cranston with 4%; Colorado Senator Gary Hart with 2%; former Florida Governor Reubin Askew with 2%; and South Carolina Senator Ernest Hollings with 1%. With almost ten months to go before the convention in San Francisco, 23% say they do not yet have a preference.

Among Democrats alone, Mondale leads Glenn, 29% to 25%, but Glenn has a nine-point advantage among independents, who in some states can vote in either party's primaries. Mondale's greatest strength is in the Northeast, where he tops Glenn by 35% to 24%; he trails the former astronaut in the Midwest and South. Mondale is the clear choice of blacks and other minorities, with 32% support, easily beating out Glenn with 12%, and even Jesse Jackson, who currently claims only 23% of that constituency.

At this early stage, the polls tend to reflect heavily the name recognition that each candidate enjoys. Glenn, Mondale, McGovern and Jackson are far better known than the other contenders. In the case of Hart, part of the reason he trails badly in the preference rankings is that 60% of the voters say they are not yet familiar enough with him to form an opinion.

One way to measure the strengths a candidate can build upon, and the liabilities that may hold him back, is to see how many people have already decided that he is either acceptable or unacceptable as "a possible President." When this measure is used among registered Democrats, Glenn seems to have a slightly larger reservoir to draw upon in his quest for the nomination. While 58% find him acceptable, only 14% of the party members label him unacceptable, with the rest not yet familiar with or sure about him. Mondale, who is better known, is acceptable to 66% of his party but unacceptable to 22%. McGovern and Jackson are both well known, but 39% of the Democrats say the South Dakotan would be unacceptable to them as President, and a full 51% feel that way about the black activist. Although the others trail in the polls, they have much room for growth within their party: Hart's acceptable/unacceptable ratio among party members is 23% to 14%, Cranston's is 20% to 22%, Hollings' is 7% to 15%, and Askew's is 8% to 15%.

Calculating a candidate's acceptability to Republicans and independents as well as Democrats gives an indication of who has more potential to win a general election. Although Glenn and Mondale are both considered acceptable by about 55% of all registered voters, some 33% declare that Mondale is not acceptable, while only 18% say that of Glenn. That may be partly because voters are less familiar with Glenn's positions and ideology. Jackson is labeled as not acceptable by 56% of all voters, McGovern by 46%, Cranston by 26%, Hart by 18%, and Askew and Hollings by 17%.

Whoever eventually wins the Democratic nomination may find it difficult to unseat Reagan if he runs again. The public's rating of the President's performance has risen to its highest level since the first year of his term, with favorable ratings outnumbering unfavorable ones 59% to 41%. In June 54% gave him favorable reviews, while in March the figure was only 45%. The gender gap was still notable: this time he got high ratings from 64% of the men and just 54% of the women surveyed. Only 35% of blacks and other minorities gave him favorable ratings, and a full 23% gave him the poorest possible grade on a l-to-10 scale.

To determine true support for the President, rather than simply personal good will toward him, voters were asked if they hoped that he would run for a second term. For the first time in l 1/2years, voters said that they did, by 48% to 41%. Last June the sentiment was 46% to 42% against such a bid. The reason most often cited by those who said that their impressions of Reagan had improved during his term was his handling of inflation. Those who have a less favorable impression of Reagan tended to cite his record on unemployment. Almost 60% said that he had made sufficient progress on solving the problem of inflation, but roughly the same percentage said he had not made sufficient progress on unemployment.

Part of Reagan's success stems from an increase in the number of people who say that things in the U.S. tend to be going "very well" or "fairly well." That number has risen from 35% last December to 55% today. Indeed, these are the highest records of general satisfaction recorded in TIME-Yankelovich polls since 1978. Republicans are by far the most satisfied: 73% of them say that things are going well, compared with only 23% of the Democrats. There is also a gender gap in the responses. Some 62% of the men but only 49% of the women say things are going well. A similar sounding, which asks voters for their assessment of the "state of the nation," shows that the percentage of those responding "good" stayed near the 42% level reached in June, an increase from 27% last December and 11% in March 1980, during the depths of the Iranian hostage crisis.

Reagan is clearly the overwhelming choice among Republicans for their party's nomination. But should he choose not to run again, the current preferences among Republicans and independents for the nomination are 35% for Vice President George Bush, 19% for Senate

Majority Leader Howard Baker, 9% for Kansas Senator Robert Dole, 7% for New York Congressman Jack Kemp and 27% undecided.

In order of perceived importance, the nation's most pressing problems were reducing the risk of nuclear war, providing quality education, reducing waste and inefficiency in Government, dealing effectively with the Soviet Union and providing jobs for the unemployed. On the first two of these issues, approximately 35% of the voters thought the Democrats would do a better job, while about 20% felt the Republicans would be more competent. (The rest thought there would be no difference or expressed no opinion.) By 46% to 15%, Democrats were seen as more able to provide jobs for the unemployed. Voters thought the Republicans had a slight advantage in dealing with the Soviets and with Government waste. Those polled said that they would be far likelier to base their presidential vote on broad concerns rather than on narrower social issues, such as gun control, school prayer and abortion.

Voters rated Reagan highly on certain key personal attributes. Regarding his belief in traditional values, 64% gave him high marks and only 10% gave him low marks. He was deemed honest by 52% (vs. 17% who thought him "not very good" or "poor" in this regard), trustworthy by 52% (vs. 22%), experienced by 51% (vs. 19%) and good in times of crisis by 48% (vs. 14%). Ratings for Mondale and Glenn are lower at this time in all of these categories, probably in large part because they are untested as Presidents. Notably, only 18% felt Mondale catered to special interests, a charge frequently made by his critics. Reagan was faulted on this score by 31 %.

On the issues, Reagan's greatest strength is the perception that he "will keep our defenses strong." He also is given positive marks for maintaining good relations with allies and getting the economy back on track. His lowest ratings are on his ability to keep the U.S. out of a war and controlling Government spending. Mondale and Glenn, on the other hand, are ranked most highly in an area where Reagan is relatively weak: "Treating all Americans fairly." Like Reagan, both leading Democrats are considered unlikely to deal well with Government spending. But the spending issue may not be so important as it once was. When asked whether it was more important to "maintain programs for the needy even if it means a failure to cut the budget" or to "cut the budget even if it means fewer programs for the needy," voters chose the former course by 63% to 34%.

The TIME-Yankelovich survey also revealed a somewhat disturbing uncertainty about the events surrounding the downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 a month ago. When asked to sort out the chain of events, 62% said that "something happened we don't understand." Only 26% said they think the event occurred "exactly as the President says," although virtually none thought the plane was on a spy mission. Some 46% said the President has gone "far enough" in responding to the disaster, while 43% felt he had not.

Polls, of course, provide only a snapshot of a particular moment in the nation's thinking. As the lesser-known candidates gain greater recognition, and the views and personalities of each of the contenders become clearer in the voters' minds, there is much room for movement. But the snapshot is unambiguous on one point: any challenger who hopes to become the next President has his work cut out for him. --By Walter Isaacson

The findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters from Sept. 20 to Sept. 22. The xrtential sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When compared with the results of previous polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.