Monday, Aug. 22, 1983

Surviving a Severe Test

The world's fourth largest democracy re-elects its President

It was a proud day for Nigerians, the second presidential election since the country returned to civilian rule in 1979. From the dense rain forests of the southern delta to the desert in the north, they turned out in record throngs by car, camel and canoe to vote at some 160,000 polling stations. Belying their reputation for volatility, Nigerians waited patiently in lines for up to eight hours to have their say in their country's government. By the end of the day, 25.4 million voters had placed their thumbprints in indelible purple ink beside the symbol of one of the six parties participating in the race.

Five days later the last votes had been tallied and officials announced that President Shehu Shagari, 58, had been overwhelmingly re-elected as leader of the world's fourth largest democracy (after India, the U.S. and Japan). Shagari, a soft-spoken Muslim who writes poetry in Hausa, the language of the north, won more than 12 million votes, or 47% of the total. He satisfied a second requirement, designed to ensure broad national support, by garnering 25% of the vote in 16 of the country's 19 states.

Nigerians were relieved that their young democracy had survived one of its most severe tests. When the military turned the country back to civilian rule in 1979, few believed that the new government would be able to cope with the intense ethnic and tribal loyalties that had spawned the military takeovers of the past. Declared Shagari after his reelection: "It is a victory for all Nigerians; it is a victory for democracy." Nigeria, he said, would remain nonaligned but "very much" tied to the West.

Although election day was peaceful, nearly 100 people died in political violence during the six-month campaign. Shagari took a stern line on law and order. He did not allow the army to supervise polling stations, as it had done in 1979, but troops were deployed at checkpoints in troubled areas. Still, there were charges of voting irregularities.

Shagari's power base is in the predominantly agricultural and Muslim north. But he also picked up votes in regions populated by minority tribes. Shagari's re-election effectively ended the political careers of his two main rivals: Chief Obafemi Awolowo, 74, leader of the Unity Party, and Nnamdi Azikiwe, 78, head of the Nigerian People's Party.

Shagari's main concern now is the parlous state of the Nigerian economy. When he was elected to his first term, Nigeria was booming as a result of high oil prices and expanding production. As oil prices dropped in 1981 and OPEC tightened its production quotas, Nigerian oil revenues, which normally account for 90% of the country's export earnings, fell from $26 billion a year to $10 billion. The government is currently negotiating with the International Monetary Fund for a three-year loan that will help ease its balance of payments deficit.

The President will have to deal with the country's rampant corruption. Few federal or state contracts, for example, are awarded without payment of a "mobilization fee," which can amount to 40% of the contract. Shagari is personally untainted, but among those accused of corruption are some of the political barons who helped bring him to power. Says a Western analyst: "The question is whether Shagari has the courage to rein them in. If he does not, there could be trouble ahead." This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.