A Move Toward Partition

By James Kelly

As Gemayel visits the U.S., Begin approves a partialpullout in Lebanon

The timing could not have been less apt. Just as Lebanese President Amin Gemayel arrived in Washington last week, in a desperate bid for U.S. help in rebuilding his shattered country, Israel took a step that could make that task virtually impossible. In a unanimous vote, the Israeli Cabinet approved a partial withdrawal of the country's forces in Lebanon. The pullback, which should be completed by October, could lead to what the U.S. most fears: the de facto partitioning of Lebanon between Israel and Syria, leaving Gemayel's government in control of only the area around Beirut.

The Israeli decision came less than 24 hours after Prime Minister Menachem Begin canceled a trip to Washington planned for this week. The meeting was to have been the first between Begin and Ronald Reagan since June 1982. It would no doubt have given the President an opportunity to express his reservations about Israel's redeployment plans. Begin, who has been in poor health, cited only "personal reasons" for his decision.

As if to underscore Lebanon's frailty, the level of violence escalated during the week. More than 20 people were killed Friday' and 65 were wounded as first Beirut Airport and then many of the capital's suburbs were bombarded by rival Christian Phalangist and Druze artillerymen. A U.S. Navy air controller and two Marines were among those injured at the airport, where the 1,200 Marines who are part of the four-nation peace-keeping force have their headquarters. Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Druze sect, took "full responsibility" for the airport attack. On Saturday he and two other Lebanese opposition leaders announced that they had formed a Syrianbacked "National Salvation Front" to challenge Gemayel's leadership.

On his way to the U.S., Gemayel stopped in France to confer with King Hussein of Jordan, who was vacationing near Nice. In Washington the Lebanese President warned his hosts that if the U.S. did not persuade both Israel and Syria to withdraw their troops from Lebanon soon, his fragile government could collapse. Gemayel also expressed his opposition to Israel's redeployment plan. Said he: "The partial withdrawal gives the impression, unfortunately, and I can't believe it, that the U.S. effort has failed."

Few officials in Washington could legitimately disagree. Last May Secretary of State George Shultz negotiated a Lebanese-Israeli accord providing for the withdrawal of Israel's 36,000 troops from Lebanon on the condition that Syria also pulled out its 60,000 men. But Syrian President Hafez Assad, who has received some $3.5 billion worth of arms from the Soviet Union over the past year, has refused to go along with the arrangement.

The Israeli decision guaranteed that the main topic of discussion between Gemayel and the U.S. would be the partial military withdrawal. Both Reagan and Gemayel disapproved of the decision, but the U.S. was prepared to go along with it. In a series of meetings that stretched over three days, U.S. officials assured Gemayel that they would stress to the Israelis that any redeployment should be the first stage of a complete pullout. To assuage Gemayel further, the Administration also agreed to transform $150 million in loans to the Lebanese into outright grants. But by the time Reagan met with Gemayel for two hours last Friday, it was clear that the U.S. had no new strategies. Said a senior American diplomat: "Frankly, the best we can do for Lebanon is work with them to restore a sense of momentum on complete withdrawal."

In the absence of fresh ideas, Reagan opted for fresh faces. With Gemayel standing beside him, the President announced that Special Envoy Philip Habib, who has been the Administration's principal troubleshooter in the Middle East, would be replaced by Robert C. McFarlane, Deputy National Security Adviser. Habib, 63, was described as leaving to pursue "private commitments," but in reality he had outlived his usefulness. The Israelis distrusted him and, more important, the Syrians flatly refused to see him. McFarlane, 46, has little expertise in the region, but the former Marine colonel has won bipartisan praise for his work at the National Security Council. Since McFarlane will retain his present post, Middle East policy will now be brought more firmly under the control of NSC Adviser William Clark. McFarlane admitted that no new approaches were in the offing. "We'll try harder," he said, "but there is no fundamental change in strategy."

The new Israeli military line will probably run eastward from the mouth of the Awali River, 17 miles south of Beirut, then fishhook north into the Bekaa Valley (see map). No withdrawal will take place on the eastern front, where Israeli troops face the Syrians. But by moving away from the Beirut suburbs and parts of the Chouf Mountains southeast of the city, the Israelis hope to avoid being trapped in any crossfire between the Lebanese Christian and Druze militias.

The move will shorten supply lines and make the Israeli forces less vulnerable to attack. But there are political advantages too. A partial withdrawal, Begin supporters could argue, is better than no withdrawal. Since the end of the war in Lebanon, 155 Israelis have died in the country and 2,600 have been injured. As a result, the continuing Israeli presence has eroded Begin's domestic support. In a poll published last week in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, only 30.9% named Begin as the person best suited to be Prime Minister, a sharp decline from 45% six weeks earlier.

Begin's decision to cancel his trip puzzled Israelis and Americans alike. For months he has reportedly been depressed by the apparent failure of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, as well as by the death last November of his wife of 43 years. His grief worsened five weeks ago when his trusted friend Deputy Prime Minister Simcha Ehrlich died suddenly. As an aide put it, "If you're not in the mood to sing, can you sing?"

If Begin is despondent enough to back out of a trip to the U.S., members of Israel's opposition Labor Party were asking last week, is he well enough to stay on as Prime Minister? According to Begin's aides, the answer is yes. "It's no secret that since his wife's death and the Lebanese casualties, he is not a happy man," says an adviser. "It has changed his mood. But it does not mean he cannot operate." Others noted that the Prime Minister may simply have wanted to avoid discussing the planned redeployment with Reagan face to face. Begin appeared more subdued than usual last week as he addressed the Knesset on the country's problems. Arriving at the Knesset, he nonetheless greeted a colleague by poking fun at the rumors. "So, how do I look? Alive or dead?"

Still, Begin's habits have changed. He goes to his office in the mornings but spends most afternoons at the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem. He delegates more tasks to subordinates. No longer does he dominate meetings. "It used to be when you were in a conversation with him, he would do 85% of the talking and you would do 15%," a diplomat observes. "Now it's just the reverse."

On subjects that interest Begin, according to a Cabinet minister, he is lucid and alert, but on topics that do not engage him he can be "apathetic." Begin has occasionally had such spells before, however, and he has always managed to snap out of them. Says a Western ambassador, pointing to his head: "It hasn't changed him up here. He's still got it up there."

As Beirut buried its latest dead, Lebanese authorities and Western diplomats suspected that the most recent attacks on the Christian quarters were the work not only of Druze militiamen but of their Syrian backers. In retaliation, perhaps, the Druze-owned Summerland Hotel was bombed last week, killing six and injuring 20. By striking at the hotel, the bombers attacked a symbol of Beirut's will to endure; Israeli shells nearly wrecked the complex during last year's war, but Owner Raja Saab rebuilt it in five months at a cost of $10 million. The hotel and its beach club became a gathering place for all religious factions, a placid oasis in a devastated terrain. The Israelis also had reason to note an irony in the violence last week. For the first time since their invasion of Lebanon more than 13 months ago, several villages in western Galilee, an area of northern Israel bordering on Lebanon, were hit by Katyusha rockets fired from southern Lebanon. The purpose of Operation Peace for Galilee, as the June 6, 1982, invasion of Lebanon was called, had been to ensure that northern Israel would never again be subject to such shelling.

There was, however, one bit of good news from the Middle East last week. David Dodge, 61, acting president of the American University of Beirut, suddenly reappeared, alive and well, after having been abducted from the campus last summer. Kidnaped by pro-Iranian Shi'ite Muslim militants, Dodge was reportedly first held in the Iranian embassy in Beirut, and then spirited to the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon. At some point, his captors apparently took him into Syria and then to Iran, where he stayed for several months. During his meeting with Assad in Damascus on July 6, Secretary of State Shultz is said to have asked the Syrian President to try to win Dodge's release. Assad was a logical intermediary: not only are Syrian-Iranian relations harmonious, but the President's younger brother Rifaat heads Syria's security forces and has close ties with the militant group that seized Dodge. How Syria eventually intervened remains a mystery, but the White House publicly thanked Assad and Brother Rifaat for their "humani tarian efforts." For one day last week, at least, Washington considered Assad somewhat of a hero. --By James Kelly.

Reported by Harry Kelly/Jerusalem and Johanna McGeary/Washington

With reporting by Harry Kelly, Johanna McGeary This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.