Preying Hawke

A challenge for Fraser

Suddenly he seems to be everywhere--briefing candidates, wooing the press, and greeting voters with a cheery "G'day. How yer goin'?" Seizing the offensive on the campaign trail, Bob Hawke, 53, is not about to waste a long-awaited opportunity enhanced by some providential timing. On the same day that the way was cleared for Hawke to assume leadership of Australia's Labor Party, Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser unexpectedly scheduled general elections for March 5. In the space of barely a month, the charismatic and impatient Hawke could thus be catapulted from party expert on industrial relations to Prime Minister.

The breadth and brashness of Hawke's ambitions alarm some Australians as much as they delight others. The new contender is at once an urbane Rhodes scholar and a combative political gladhander, an articulate negotiator and a reformed alcoholic. He first attracted attention as president of the influential Australian Council of Trade Unions (A.C.T.U.) from 1970 to 1980. Even before Hawke was elected to Parliament, a 1979 poll revealed him as Australia's favorite choice for Prime Minister. When at last he did join Parliament two years ago, he was, he said, determined not to "warm my bum on a back bench." Hawke's subsequent lackluster performance has cast some doubts on his ability to govern. But after Labor suffered a demoralizing defeat in a by-election last December, the party decided to jettison Bill Hayden, 50, its colorless longtime leader, and gamble on Hawke's double-edged magnetism.

In calling early elections, Fraser had hoped to catch the opposition off-balance. After seven years in power, the rugged, often ruthless Prime Minister has seen his popularity decline with the economy. Unemployment runs currently at 10.1%, its highest rate since the Depression; inflation remains high at 11.2% annually; and the recession that began in 1981 shows every sign of deepening. To combat these problems, Fraser appeared two weeks ago in the town hall of Malvern, a cozy suburb of Melbourne, to promise more jobs for the young, more money for education, and tax cuts for small companies. On the following day, Hawke took over the floodlit stage of the Sydney Opera House's theater and, before an overflowing audience, fleshed out an ambitious $2.65 billion economic program of his own that aims to create jobs and rejuvenate public works and services.

The election's most divisive force, and perhaps its most decisive issue, is represented by Hawke's former colleagues in the trade unions. For three months they have adamantly opposed a Fraser wage freeze designed to slow inflation. If he is reelected, the Prime Minister plans to hold a referendum to increase his power over the recalcitrant unions. In contrast, the Labor Party huddled with the A.C.T.U. and proposed a detailed policy that would link wage increases to price rises. Contending that Hawke's union connections will handcuff rather than help him, Fraser dismissed the Labor plan as "a blueprint for union government."

The power of Hawke's personality has so far given Labor a 52%-to-42% lead in the latest polls. A state election two weeks ago in Western Australia resulted in a startling 7.8% swing to Labor, which now controls four of Australia's seven regions. But Labor has often before led in the polls and lost at the polling booths. If Fraser is the man many Australians love to hate, Hawke may be the one they are loath to embrace. The Australian Financial Review, for example, portrays Hawke as "everybody's mate, but maybe not the person to make us make the hard choices." Australians face the first such choice this week as they determine whether Hawke's challenge is indeed prodigious, or simply presumptuous. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.