A Murky but intriguing Trail

By Kenneth W. Banta.

Accusations and denials regarding a Bulgarian connection

In Italy it is called la Pista Bulgara (the Bulgarian Trail), and at diplomatic receptions from London to Moscow the talk quickly turns to the Bulgarian Connection. Everyone in Europe, it seems, has become fascinated by an allegation that, if true, could profoundly undermine East-West relations: that a Turkish gunman's attempt to assassinate Pope John Paul II in Rome 19 months ago was masterminded by the Soviet Union, which was angered by the Pontiffs support of Poland's Solidarity Union. The trail, it is rumored, could lead as high as Soviet Leader and former KGB Chief Yuri Andropov. The reactions in West European capitals range from total disbelief to qualified credulity. Says a top British official: "I think the Russians have become too sophisticated to try this sort of thing." A French government expert, however, notes that subversion from the Communist bloc is a "permanent threat" that must be taken seriously.

While much of the evidence points intriguingly toward Bulgarian and potentially Soviet complicity, it is still mostly circumstantial. As a result, the Italian authorities are treading very carefully. "It is a matter of extremely serious facts," Interior Minister Virginio Rognoni said last week, but up to now only "evidence, not proof, has emerged."

Much of the new evidence is believed to come from a confession given to Italian authorities by Mehmet Ali Agca, 24, the Turk who is now serving a life sentence in a Rome prison for his attempt on the Pope's life. According to accounts of his confession that were leaked to Rome newspapers, Agca says that he escaped from a Turkish jail in 1979 with the aid of a Turkish terrorist who allegedly worked for the Bulgarians. Agca went to Bulgaria and then to Rome, where he met three Bulgarians, including Sergei Ivanov Antonov, the head of the local office of Bulgaria's Balkan Airlines. Later, apparently, he was offered $ 1.25 million to kill the Pope.

After wounding the Pope, Agca was caught by police before he could duck into a getaway car. His alleged Bulgarian accomplices, two of whom Agca says were with him in the square, escaped.

Italian authorities arrested Antonov earlier this month in Rome, and at Italy's request, West German police picked up another suspect in Frankfurt. The Italians also put out an arrest warrant for a former secretary to the Bulgarian military attache and for an accountant at the Bulgarian embassy. The Bulgarian connection is further corroborated by telephone numbers that Agca gave to Italian authorities, which match those of Antonov's airline office and the Bulgarian embassy in Rome.

If all the allegations about Bulgarians could be proved, they would point strongly toward Soviet complicity. Not only is Bulgaria the Soviet Union's staunchest ally but, according to most experts, the Bulgarian secret service is run directly by the KGB. The allegations could implicate Andropov, who headed the KGB at the time, as well as former President Leonid Brezhnev. Says Stefan Sverdlev, a former colonel in the Bulgarian secret service who defected to Greece more than three years ago: "I do not doubt for one instant the role of the Bulgarian secret service in this attack. But if they did it, it was not on their own initiative." TIME has learned that the Pope believes the KGB ordered the assassination attempt.

The case against the Bulgarians, however, remains unproven. Agca has changed his story before, and his latest narrative contains apparent inconsistencies. For example, he described Antonov as wearing a beard, but Antonov has apparently always had a mustache. Although photographs taken at the time of the assassination attempt show a man who looks strikingly like Antonov standing only a few yards from the Pope, Antonov's lawyer says that he can prove that his client was not in St. Peter's Square at the time of the shooting.

Stung by the speculation, Bulgaria for the first time has explicitly denied involvement. At an unusual Sofia press conference, the director of Bulgaria's state news agency charged the West with a frame-up "aimed at influencing the sentiments of millions of Catholics." The Soviet news agency TASS rejected "absurd insinuations" linking Moscow to the plot. Even many Western analysts, while convinced that the Soviets often act through Bulgarian proxies, believe the assassination attempt was too sloppy to have been directed by the KGB. Says a West German intelligence official: "I cannot believe that the KGB would do something so slipshod and unprofessional. Why would the KGB be so stupid as to leave Bulgarians who were closely involved in the thing hanging around Rome, waiting to be arrested?"

Two other Italian cases, however, strengthen the Bulgarian connection. Luigi Scricciolo, 34, a former Italian labor official arrested in February on charges of spying for Bulgaria and aiding the terrorist Red Brigades, has reportedly named as his contact one of the Bulgarians implicated in the papal plot. In Trento, 200 people have been jailed on charges of smuggling arms and drugs into Western Europe under the direction of a man reputed to have close ties to Bulgaria. In Israel, intelligence officials have long asserted that Bulgaria has trained Palestine Liberation Organization terrorists.

For years it has been no secret in Western Europe that Bulgaria's secret service has tolerated the shipment of billions of dollars worth of arms from Turkey, much of it for use by terrorist organizations. The new allegations, however, raise fears that Soviet-directed terrorism and subversion reach farther, and with far less restraint, than had previously been believed. Italy's relations with Bulgaria are already badly frayed. But with so much at stake, Italy and its Western allies are prudently waiting for more solid evidence before making any additional charges public. --By Kenneth W. Banta. Reported by Barry Kalb/Rome with other bureaus

With reporting by Barry Kalb/Rome with other bureaus

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