Turnabout

What Zia wants: U.S. help

From the Khyber Pass to the shores of the Arabian Sea, the land has known all manner of conquerors: Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Tamerlane, the British raj. Today, Pakistan has as much geopolitical importance as it had centuries ago. To the west lies an Iran convulsed by Ayatullah Khomeini's revolution, to the east a teeming, sometimes hostile India, to the north and west an Afghanistan occupied by the Soviet army. When Pakistan's President Mohammed Zia ul-Haq, 58, meets President Reagan in Washington this week, strategic issues, not surprisingly, will dominate the agenda.

Zia's visit is a bench mark in Pakistan's relations with the U.S. Three years ago, rampaging demonstrators in Islamabad set fire to the U.S. embassy, leading to the deaths of a U.S. Marine, a U.S. Army warrant officer and two Pakistanis. In 1978 all U.S. aid to Pakistan had been suspended because the Carter Administration believed that Pakistan was using U.S.-supplied plutonium to develop a weapons-grade nuclear capability, an allegation Zia denies (see interview). But in 1981 Congress authorized a resumption of assistance, mainly because Soviet troops had invaded Afghanistan.

Completing the turnabout, the Reagan Administration is planning to spend $3.2 billion on military and economic aid to Zia's regime over the next five years. Topping the list of U.S.-made military hardware earmarked for Pakistan are 40 advanced F-16 fighter-bombers. The $1.1 billion aircraft package was delayed last week after Pakistan complained that it was not getting all the sophisticated electronic equipment that such other customers as Israel, Egypt and South Korea received. The problem has since been resolved, and the first six upgraded planes should be delivered in the next few weeks.

Several contentious issues remain. Zia, a devout Muslim who supports the Arab cause, is troubled by Washington's firm backing of Israel. The Reagan Administration would like Zia to curb Pakistan's opium production. According to drug-enforcement agents, an estimated 70% of the heroin (derived from opium) coming into the U.S. either originates in or passes through Pakistan. But overshadowing all else is Soviet activity in Afghanistan, which has driven 2.8 million Afghans to seek refuge in Pakistan. Says a Western diplomat in Islamabad: "Sometimes Zia's streak of religious fanaticism scares me. But he's the best we've got in a very dangerous situation."

The U.S. preoccupation with the political picture in Southwest Asia is likely to draw attention away from the situation inside Pakistan. Though Zia promised elections when he overthrew the government of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977, he has refused to set a specific date for fear of civil unrest and has shunted potential military rivals to the sidelines. But countless Pakistanis still hold him responsible for Bhutto's execution by hanging in 1979 after a show trial. Bhutto's Radcliffe-educated daughter Benazir, 29, remains under house arrest because her public appearance anywhere in Pakistan could instantly send thousands of her late father's supporters into the streets.

Zia's highly publicized campaign to strengthen Islamic values in Pakistani society has proved deeply divisive. He sees it as the only means of unifying the country's disparate ethnic groups, but the drive has alienated the intelligentsia and students, who deplore strictures on female behavior and on the use of alcohol. Zia's detractors go so far as to link the Increased number of youthful drug addicts in Pakistan, estimated to be as high as 50,000, to the rigidity of the Islamic code. They also note that although classical Arabic has been introduced to school curriculums, Pakistan's illiteracy rate remains 76%, unchanged over the past three years.

Still, Zia has shown himself to be an artful master of political compromise at home and abroad. When Shi'ite Muslims protested against the government's Koran-based compulsory tithing scheme, Zia backed off. He has also moved carefully in his rapprochement with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, with whom he would like to negotiate a no-war pact, and in his efforts to keep lines of communications open to the nettlesome Khomeini regime in Tehran. Zia will need all the political acumen he can muster if he is to negotiate successfully the narrow, obstacle-ridden path he has chosen.

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