Troubled Talks

A lost opportunity for Namibia

Outside the diplomatic entrance to the State Department Building in Washington last week, a small knot of demonstrators gathered to chant slogans and wave placards. But if the protesters' target, South African Foreign Minister Roelof ("Pik") Botha, was bothered by the demonstration, he gave no sign of it. After a private discussion with Secretary of State George Shultz, followed by a working lunch, Botha claimed confidently that the U.S. had a "real chance" of resolving one of southern Africa's thorniest problems: getting independence for Namibia, a vast, arid territory controlled by South Africa. Echoed a senior State Department official in response to Botha's optimism: "We do feel we have something viable on the way."

Maybe so. But there is a growing sense in diplomatic circles that the Reagan Administration's controversial policy of "constructive engagement" with South Africa in solving problems in that region is in deep trouble, very possibly of Washington's making. As recently as August, the US.'s highly publicized efforts to win Namibian independence by joining France, Britain, West Germany and Canada in negotiations, while remaining friendly to South Africa, appeared to be on the verge of success. Now, despite Washington's assertions to the contrary, the initiative appears to have virtually collapsed. Says John Barratt, director-general of the Johannesburg-based South African Institute of International Affairs: "In the future, there is little doubt that this will be seen as one of the greatest lost opportunities."

The change of mood is dramatically evident in Windhoek, the capital of the thinly populated (1 million) territory. Last summer the city was abuzz with preparations for the arrival of some 10,000 members of the United Nations Transitional Assistance Group (UNTAG), which was supposed to supervise and guarantee the move to independence. Local newspapers were full of advertisements seeking housing for the anticipated visitors. A U.N. representative toured the city to seek bids from local dealers for a fleet of cars and trucks for the transition team.

The air of expectancy has since evaporated. In place of the housing ads are reports, denied by the U.N., that the UNTAG operation has been canceled. In yet another pessimistic sign, the South African government last week announced a three-month extension in the term of its governing body for Namibia, the South West African National Assembly. Said Prime Minister Pieter W. Botha regarding the independence settlement: "We hope there will be greater clarity on that matter within the next three months, but it might naturally take longer." The government hinted that South African-supervised elections for the National Assembly might come early next year. Those elections could conceivably provide further ammunition for South Africa in its campaign to keep power out of the hands of the South West Africa Peoples Organization (SWAPO), the Marxist-dominated guerrilla movement that is leading the armed independence struggle.

Ironically enough, the South Africans appear to have fashioned a stalling tactic out of an idea first proposed by the Reagan Administration. As part of its "constructive engagement," Washington declared that it wanted to link Namibian independence and the withdrawal of some 20,000 South African troops stationed in the territory to the pullout of an estimated 20,000 Cuban troops from neighboring Marxist-led Angola. At first the South African government said that it would "not insist" on Cuban withdrawal as part of the independence deal. But now South African Prime Minister Botha is demanding a "clear agreement" on the Cuban departure.

Vice President George Bush continued to defend the notion of a Cuban-Namibian deal last week as he made a two-week tour of seven African nations. Calling the linkage "the key to the settlement," Bush declared that "we're going to stick with it." His words met with displeasure from his hosts, who included Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda, leader of one of the five "frontline" states that most actively support the SWAPO guerrillas. That did not bode well for the future of Namibia, nor for the U.S. image in black Africa.

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