The Spreading Pall of Gloom

By William E. Smith

Israel mourns its dead as hopes for peace begin to fade

Acknowledging that the U.S. has not been making much progress in arranging a withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, Secretary of State George Shultz declared last week that the negotiations "are not going quite as fast as we would like." After a pause, he added, "It ain't easy." Another senior U.S. official was even more discouraged. "We try to see the bright side, give everyone the benefit of the doubt, cajole and plead," he said. "But the momentum is giving out, and we may be at a stopping point."

Less than three months after President Reagan offered his own plan, drawing positive reactions from much of the Arab world, the initiative appeared to be stalled. Last week, impatient that so little progress was being made on even the relatively simple matter of troop withdrawal, the Administration dispatched its chief Middle East negotiator, Philip Habib, back to the area. The U.S. had hoped that the 45,000 Israeli soldiers, 30,000 Syrian troops and 7,000 Palestinian fighters still in Lebanon would be gone by the end of the year. Now the Administration will be satisfied if the withdrawal has begun by then.

Among the reasons for Washington's current state of gloom, the most important is the feeling that Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin will never budge in his determination to hold on to the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Beyond that, U.S. officials are worried that Yasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, may not be in a strong enough position within the P.L.O. to enter into any peace negotiations now. Finally, the U.S. has decided that although such moderate Arab states as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan would like to take advantage of the Reagan initiative, they seem uncertain how to do so. At the moment, Washington's best hope is that King Hussein of Jordan, who is scheduled to visit the U.S. next month, will decide to join the talks, either on his own or with Arafat's approval. Still, officials fear that the opportunity created by the evacuation of P.L.O. fighters from Beirut three months ago is passing quickly.

In Israel, diplomatic issues received little attention last week. Prime Minister Begin had returned to Jerusalem upon learning of the death of his wife of 43 years, Aliza, 62, who had been hospitalized for much of the past year with respiratory problems. Begin was in Los Angeles when he received the news, and immediately canceled a ten-day trip that was to have taken him to Washington for talks with President Reagan. After his wife's funeral on Monday, Begin remained in seclusion in his Jerusalem home. No new dates have been set for his meeting with Reagan.

At the same time, Israel was mourning the victims of the explosion two weeks ago that destroyed the Israeli military headquarters in Tyre, Lebanon, killing 75 Israelis and 14 Arabs. The disaster, the deadliest single incident in Israel's history, was at first thought to have been an act of terrorism. By last week, however, Israeli authorities were convinced that it was an accident, probably caused by the escape of gas from the kitchen of the poorly constructed building.

In the aftermath of the disaster, many Israelis felt a renewed urge to get their country's forces out of Lebanon. One Cabinet member, Energy Minister Yitzhak Moda'i, proposed that Israel undertake a unilateral withdrawal from certain parts of Lebanon in order to test Syrian and Lebanese intentions. Such a move would be welcomed by the Lebanese, who increasingly resent the continued Israeli occupation. Many of them blame the Israeli presence for the sporadic factional fighting between Christians and Muslims in the hilly Chouf and Aley regions a few miles southeast of Beirut. Meanwhile, the Israelis and the Lebanese have not agreed even on how to proceed with the withdrawal negotiations. The Israelis want to talk directly with the Lebanese about all aspects of future relations between the two countries. The Lebanese, determined to strengthen their Arab ties, prefer to use the U.S. as a middleman and, for the time being, to limit any talks to military questions.

In Jerusalem, the official investigation of the Beirut massacre continued, and once again the commission of inquiry heard testimony that appeared to contradict the previous statements of Begin and his Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. Lieut. Colonel Ze'ev Zeharin, an aide to Chief of Staff Rafael Eitan, testified that he was "100% sure" Sharon first spoke on Tuesday evening, Sept. 14, two days before the massacre began, about the plan for Lebanese Christian militiamen to enter the Palestinian camps. Sharon had testified that he first broached the subject on the following day. Zeharin also said Eitan had told him that on Saturday morning, Sept. 18, Begin had called Eitan, asking for information about the Gaza Hospital, located in one of the camps where the massacre was going on. Two weeks ago, Begin told the commission that he had not learned about the atrocities until late Saturday, when he heard a BBC newscast. Another witness last week was Communications Minister Mordechai Zipori, who testified that he was told on Friday morning, Sept. 17, that killing was going on in the camps, and that he so informed Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir.

The latest testimony strengthened the view that Israeli military authorities should have known that a decision to allow Lebanese militiamen into the Palestinian camps could have terrible consequences. According to a public opinion survey in the Jerusalem Post, Sharon's support has fallen from 51.8% in August to 37.5% in October.

Begin has fared better. According to the same poll, the Prime Minister's support declined from 54% in August to 42.9% in September, but then increased to 44.8% in October. His closest rival is President Yitzhak Navon, with 18.4%, followed by former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, with 11.1%. Opposition Leader Shimon Peres is a distant fourth, with only 3.3%. Reason: the Sephardic Jews who support Begin approve of his hard line toward the Arabs, massacre or no massacre, and the Sephardim now make up more than half of the Israeli population. --By William E. Smith. Reported by David Halevy/Jerusalem and Johanna McGeary/Washington

With reporting by David Halevy/Jerusalem, Johanna McGeary/Washington

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