A Hot Time on the Hustings

By WALTER ISAACSON

As elections near, Democrats wonder how many wins are enough

Not far from Jacksonville, Ill., Ronald Reagan stood in front of a farm wagon piled high with freshly harvested corn, defied the cold winds and predicted a warm economic climate just ahead. "It takes gumption to stick with longer-term solutions," he declared during a denunciation of the economic policies of past Democratic Administrations. "I don't want to go back. Do you?" Standing ankle-deep in the dark mud, about 4,000 farmers murmured no. Like the rest of the nation, even this partisan campaign crowd sounded slightly unsure about the political course the nation should take as the 1982 campaign headed into its final days.

The President went to Peoria and the prairies of Illinois last week to urge voters there, and across the nation, to "stay the course," to stick with the economic program that has become the focus of Campaign '82. Of course, Reagan himself is not on the ballot. The election is a typical mid-term medley of House, Senate and Governors' races, each with its own mix of personalities and local concerns. But Reagan is on the road, both as a campaigner and a cause, because the unspoken issue in race after race is the economic program that he and the Republican Party embarked on almost two years ago, and specifically its role in pushing the national unemployment rate to 10.1%.

For the Democrats, the economic issue is producing a rare semblance of unity: a wholehearted agreement to disagree with the President. "The Reagan program is not working because it is not fair," said House Speaker Tip O'Neill in a reply to Reagan's regular Saturday radio talk. Two once, and no doubt future, foes on the primary trail, former Vice President Walter Mondale and Senator Edward Kennedy, joined last week for a friendly vaudeville tour of Boston, to "help" Kennedy in his easy march toward reelection. Said Mondale of his prime competitor for the 1984 nomination: "Kennedy is a great Senator, and I want to keep him in the United States Senate--for at least six more years." Kennedy in turn pledged: "He has been my friend, he is my friend today, and he will be my friend, come what may."

National policies rarely determine the outcome of many individual mid-term elections. But unemployment has now become a local issue as depressed communities and neighborhoods are increasingly shaken by the epidemic of layoffs and business failures. Nowhere is that concern more evident than in that symbol of heartland America, Peoria (pop. 124,000, unemployment rate 16.5%) where the Pabst brewery earlier this year locked its gates, the Caterpillar Tractor Co. plant has laid off 8,000 workers over the past two years, and House Minority Leader Robert Michel, who faithfully shepherded the Reaganomics revolution through Congress, is having a substantially more difficult race than he might have expected. "Jobs, jobs, jobs," says Democrat G. Douglas Stephens, who is running against Michel. "That's what 99 out of 100 people on the street say is their concern."

So at a re-election rally featuring balloons, banners and Crooner Pat Boone, Reagan tried to ride to Michel's rescue. "I didn't cause this recession," the President said. "Bob Michel didn't cause it. But I do have a responsibility for getting us out, and I can't do it without Bob Michel."

After the 1980 Reagan landslide, Republicans dreamed of Michel becoming House Speaker in this election. But now the Democrats, who have a 49-seat House majority, seem likely to add at least 15 new members to their ranks. White House Spokesman David Gergen said last week that the Administration would consider it a victory if Republicans "come up on the sunny side of 20" seats lost. Such a result would not be much worse than the party in power traditionally fares in first-term off-year elections, and would represent neither a rejection nor a reaffirmation of Reagan's policies. But even such modest losses would jeopardize the tenuous coalition that allowed Reagan to win victories for his tax and social-spending cuts. It would provide the Democrats with their goal of a "midcourse correction" to curb what they view as the more radical aspects of Reagan's programs.

The key to an even greater Democratic shift will be the turnout of the unemployed. Another crucial bloc will be workers who fear they could soon join the jobless ranks. If those suffering from the recession are too disillusioned or apathetic to vote, as has often been the case, or if they stay home because they believe the Democrats are offering no alternatives, the Republicans will do well. But many strategists were saying last week that they sense a Republican Waterloo, with blue-collar workers joining the jobless and the worried in returning to the Democratic fold. "The fear factor is still there," says Representative Tony Coelho of California, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "It's there with those who fear their job is next." Says Nancy Sinnott of the National Republican Congressional Committee: "Unemployment may be hurting us more than we thought."

Both Democratic Pollster Peter Hart and Republican Pollster Robert Teeter last week said that it now seems possible for the Democrats to pick up two dozen House seats. Some analysts are even predicting a 40-seat gain. Any figure in that range would be a major rejection of the President's policies and make it almost impossible for the Administration to push any new economic initiatives through Congress. Democrats would then finally be forced to offer their own alternative budget and tax priorities in conjunction with the moderate Republican leadership in the Senate. Reagan's substantial defense-spending increases would probably be scaled back and social programs better protected.

The Senate is unlikely to change hands. With only 13 of its 54 seats at stake, and most incumbents apparently secure, the G.O.P. expects to save its eight-member majority from more than one or two losses. Within the states, however, a more sizable shift is likely. Of the 36 Governors' mansions up for grabs, 16 are currently held by Republicans, and the Democrats have a chance of winning up to eleven of the 16.

The psychological impact of the voting results may well transcend the practical outcome. If Republicans minimize their losses, it will give Reagan a new surge of perceived authority to continue the course he has set. A Democratic landslide would frighten even those Republicans who were spared defeat into taking a more independent line from the White House. Indeed, the symbolic importance attached to the outcome could be self-fulfilling: even though the election is really a collection of 504 unrelated races, if both Democrats and Republicans increasingly view it as a referendum on Reagan's economic policies, the election could become just such a test.

The most critical testing ground is in the Midwest, where the recession has slammed into the heavy industries and fertile farm lands with a vengeance. Popular Republican Governors are retiring in Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. All of those seats could be captured by Democrats. They are also hotly challenging Republican incumbents in Nebraska and Illinois, states that were on Reagan's itinerary last week. At an Omaha rally for Governor Charles Thone, who is in a tight race with Democrat Bob Kerrey, the President preached his faith in economic recovery with a religious fervor. "Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning," he said, borrowing from Psalm 30. "America has endured a long terrible night of economic hardship, but we are seeing the first welcome bursts of sunshine."

Another significant battleground will be the 58 House seats that are empty because either an incumbent is retiring or redistricting has created a new spot. In those places, the heavy advantages of incumbency will not be a factor. Florida has four of the newly drawn seats, more than any other state. There, the Democrats, making an issue of Social Security as well as the economy, should carry at least two of the new districts. "Not since 1964 has Social Security played such an important part in a campaign," says Florida State University Political Scientist Douglas St. Angelo. In California, where the Democrats controlled the redistricting process, they are likely to win the state's two new seats and three or four others.

A major consideration in many races will be the activity of blacks, for whom the unemployment rate is more than 20%. "The blacks hate Reagan with a vengeance," says Pollster Hart. "Everything we see suggests there will be a better turnout among minorities." Southern Christian Leadership Conference President Joseph Lowery agrees: "Blacks are outraged at the gross insensitivity shown toward them and the willingness to cure inflation by sacrificing the poor on the altar of unemployment." As many as a million new black voters have registered for this year's election, according to Joseph Madison of the N.A.A.C.P. A Chicago group last month signed up 40,000 new voters, largely by sending vans to the city's unemployment and welfare offices. Says Congressional Delegate Walter Faun troy of Washington, D.C.: "There is more black voter registration than at any time since the Voting Rights Act was passed [in 1964]."

But this year as always, the most important factor of all will be the mosaic of local issues that make generalizations difficult in a mid-term election. In a newly created Texas district where layoffs would seem to dictate a clear showdown on economic issues, Democrat Tom Vandergriff is likely to beat Republican Jim Bradshaw because Bradshaw is an inept campaigner. Sample gaffe: in responding to a charge that he was polarizing ethnic groups, he said, "That makes me madder than a Jap." North Carolina Democrat Ike Andrews and Illinois Republican Philip Crane were arrested for drunken driving this month, and Indiana Republican Joel Deckard ran his car into a tree and, say police, refused to take a sobriety test. Democrat Roxanne Conlin, running for Governor of Iowa, was almost knocked out of the race when it was revealed that she and her husband paid no state tax last year despite their net worth of $2.2 million. As important as ideologies are, the personalities of many Senate candidates, notably Republican Millicent Fenwick in New Jersey, Republican Lowell Weicker in Connecticut and Democrat Jerry Brown in California, are overriding factors in their races.

Only in some 60 or so House races and perhaps a dozen Senate and gubernatorial battles do close contests and clear policy differences between the candidates combine to provide a barometer of the popularity of Reagan's programs. But these crucial showdowns will determine the balance of political power in Congress and in the nation's key states. With more than 50% of the voters declaring themselves undecided on their congressional choices in a Republican poll last week, the verdict is still as unpredictable--and of such importance--as the weather on Election Day. --By Walter Isaacson.

Reported by Neil MacNeil/Washington and Christopher Ogden/Chicago

With reporting by Neil MacNeil, Christopher Ogden

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