Election Under the Gun

By Marguerite Johnson

A strongman will take over a shattered country

Even by the arcane standards of Lebanon's contorted politics, it was an extraordinary election. Despite demands by Lebanese leftist and Muslim politicians that the voting be postponed until Israeli troops had withdrawn from Beirut, the deeply divided Parliament went ahead last week and elected Israel's chief military and political ally in Lebanon to a six-year term as President. He is Bashir Gemayel, 34, commander of the country's principal Christian militias and leader of the Phalangist Party. Gemayel was the only candidate for the post, largely because no other Christian leader dared to oppose him. He promptly declared that his election had been "a big achievement for our democracy," and pledged to reunite the country and re-establish its sovereignty by hastening the departure of foreign forces when he assumes power from outgoing President Elias Sarkis in late September.

Gemayel's task will be gravely complicated by Lebanon's crazy-quilt of political and religious factionalism. Under the terms of a national covenant worked out in 1943 when Lebanon became independent from France, the Christians are the dominant political force in Parliament, although the Muslims are now thought to outnumber them (no census has been taken since 1932). Moreover, both the Christians and the Muslims are divided into feuding sects. After the civil war ended in 1976, the Phalangists sought the support of the Israelis, who saw them as a strong and friendly force that could stabilize Lebanon.

As he tries to take control of his riven country, Gemayel also suffers from a more personal handicap, a reputation as a violent and ruthless strongman (see box). His stature was hardly helped by the brutal tactics that ensured his election last week.

The bullet-pocked Parliament building had been deemed too dangerous for the special session, so the meeting was moved to the Lebanese army's military academy at Fayadiyeh in the hills above the city, deep within Christian-controlled territory. When only 56 deputies showed up for the crucial vote, six short of the 62 required for a quorum, Gemayel militiamen went into action. After what one aide described as a number of "forceful" telephone calls, several cars pulled up to the building. The reluctant deputies were hustled into the chamber by burly escorts.

By a vote of 57 to 0, with five abstentions, Gemayel won the election. Even before the tally was read out, his followers launched a celebration as raucous as the fusillades that had saluted departing Palestinian fighters all week. Gunmen all over East Beirut fired their weapons into the air. Others detonated grenades in empty lots, while cars roared up and down the streets flying Lebanese flags and waving huge pictures of the President-elect. Gemayel held court at the family home, a 300-year-old estate at Bikfaya in the mountains northeast of Beirut, for two days before returning to the city to consult with other Christian officials.

Gemayel's opponents were quick to seek revenge for his election. The homes or businesses of at least a dozen parliamentary deputies, including those forcibly brought to the election session, were attacked or blown up. Among them was the West Beirut residence of Kamal Assad, the Muslim speaker of the assembly, whose home was struck by three rocket-propelled grenades. At the same time, Gemayel's bitter foes in the north declared themselves in open revolt against his government. Militiamen loyal to former Prime Minister Rashid Karami and to former President Suleiman Franjieh set up roadblocks between Beirut and Tripoli and declared the territory in that region "liberated." Said Franjieh: "We reject and refuse to recognize what the Israeli enemy has imposed on us."

The response to Gemayel's election by Muslim leaders in Beirut was somewhat more guarded. A top-ranking delegation of political figures met the afternoon of the balloting with former Prime Minister Saeb Salam, a senior Lebanese statesman, and issued a statement sharply critical of the manner in which the election had been held. But the group did not reject Gemayel's election outright. Later in the week Gemayel made a series of conciliatory overtures to Muslim leaders, stating that he hoped to talk with them in the next few days. Responded Salam: "He has been saying some good words, but we are waiting for deeds." Salam added that he and his associates were particularly anxious to see if Gemayel would rein in the Phalangist militiamen who have continued to harass Muslims and Palestinians with impunity.

Gemayel's attempts to win over his former foes were not helped by the warm congratulatory telegram he received from Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, who addressed him as "my dear friend." Begin has said that he hopes Israel and Lebanon will soon sign a peace treaty. Although Gemayel has remained noncommittal on the issue, Christian elders, including his father Pierre Gemayel, are known to be opposed to any step that would take Lebanon out of the Arab League and subject it to the kind of economic and political ostracism that Egypt received when it made its own separate peace with Israel.

Israeli officials publicly are counting on Gemayel's election to provide the solution to Lebanon's strife, but privately they express strong doubts about the prospects for his success. Israeli analysts point out, for example, that a whole restructuring of Lebanese society is necessary if the country is ever to be genuinely unified. They simply do not believe that Gemayel has the political clout or ability to accomplish that goal. Said one Israeli politician who has had close dealings with Gemayel in recent years: "In the long run, I think he will have to give up too much power to his liking. I doubt he will do that."

Israeli officials are irked that Gemayel, who has received some $250 million in Israeli military aid for his militia, did little to help them rout the P.L.O. guerrillas. The Israelis do not rule out the possibility that the President-elect may initiate armed conflict himself in an effort to destroy any opposition to his rule. Said one Israeli expert: "Gemayel's style is to bring things to a head."

One problem that is likely to complicate Israeli relations with the new leader is Jerusalem's support for Major Sa'ad Haddad, the Christian commander who has acted as an Israeli surrogate in southern Lebanon for the past six years. Haddad said last week that unless a peace treaty with Israel is signed, he will refuse to in corporate his militia into the Lebanese army as part of an overall Gemayel plan to disband the various Christian factions in the country.

Washington, too, was hopeful about Gemayel's election. Only hours after the vote, President Reagan sent a congratulatory message to Gemayel, promising that the U.S. would "work closely with the new government in the complex and difficult task ahead." Administration officials see Gemayel's election as the first step toward strengthening the central government in Lebanon and creating a stronger military, essential steps if the withdrawal of both Israeli and Syrian troops is to be negotiated. But there are also skeptics in the Administration who fear that if Gemayel resorts to ruthless tactics he will only further fragment the country. Said a senior official in Washington:

"We hope he'll put the national interest above his own."

Those most pessimistic about Gemayel's election, perhaps, are the Palestinian civilians who will remain behind after the P.L.O. fighters have left and who fear Gemayel. Even now, mothers in West Beirut are prone to tell their misbehaving children: "Don't do that. Bashir will come and get you." Last week Gemayel's Phalangist militiamen were taking food out of some cars heading into West Beirut and throwing it into the street. Palestinians are afraid that he may order a harsh crack down to drive them out of the country. Said a retired schoolteacher: "Bashir's election means that all the suffering of the last seven years was for nothing. We are worse off" than when the fighting began."

But many other Lebanese were optimistic last week that Gemayel could reach an accommodation with the major Muslim groups. A true Christian- Muslim entente would go far toward achieving stability. If Lebanon's new President can indeed make the right gestures toward his opponents, he may yet have a chance to salvage his shattered country.

-- By Marguerite Johnson. Reported by Robert Slater/Jerusalem and Roberto Suro /Beirut

With reporting by Robert Slater, Roberto Suro

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