Mounting Tensions on Two Fronts

By William E. Smith

Iran gains in the gulf, and Israel threatens the P.L.O.

Two wars--one active, the other sporadic and threatening--preoccupied the Middle East last week. On the Persian Gulf, Iran appeared to be gaining a crucial edge in its 19-month-long war with Iraq. A fierce battle raged for control of Khorramshahr, the strategic Iranian port city captured by Iraq shortly after the fighting began in September 1980. Some 800 miles to the west, Israeli fighter-bombers attacked a cluster of Palestine Liberation Organization strongholds in central and southern Lebanon, and the P.L.O. responded by sending volleys of artillery into northern Israel. In Jerusalem, one government leader after another declared that the ten-month, U.S.-negotiated cease-fire along the Israeli-Lebanese border had in effect collapsed.

In both areas of conflict, the latest developments caused alarm. Moderate Arab governments, particularly those of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, are deeply worried about the effects of a possible Iraqi defeat. They note that, according to the latest reports from Tehran, the Ayatullah Khomeini's goal is nothing less than the downfall of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who launched the war partly in an effort to topple Khomeini. Saddam's fall, the moderate Arabs fear, would realign the balance of forces in the region in favor of Iran and its main Arab supporter, Syria. Any change would worry Israel, which, though it has been supporting Iran against Iraq, remains hostile to the Syrians.

The current Iranian offensive began on April 30, when Tehran's forces established a bridgehead west of the Karun River in Khuzistan province. Although the Iranians have successfully regained a large share of their lost territory since the beginning of the year (see map), they encountered strong Iraqi resistance last week. One reason is that the Iraqis this time have relied heavily on their air force, carrying out persistent strikes against the Iranians. Some diplomats believe that the unexpected strength shown by the Iraqi air force results from the presence of an estimated 60 Egyptian pilots now said to be flying Iraq's Soviet-made jet fighters. Egypt has supplied arms to the Iraqis for the past year, and was recently reported to have sent 400 soldiers as well. Now there are rumors that Egyptian troops in larger numbers will soon be on their way to assist the beleaguered Iraqis.

Despite conflicting claims about casualties and accomplishments, it was clear that a significant battle was under way. Baghdad's predicament was that it apparently neither can win nor afford to lose. Iraq has been given at least $40 billion in aid by Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, but Iran has almost three times Iraq's population, plus a religiously motivated desire to win.

Thus the key to Iraq's salvation may be Egypt--a bitter irony, since no Arab country has opposed the Camp David peace process more angrily than Iraq. Nor has anyone more outspokenly denounced the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat for making peace with Israel than Saddam Hussein. But Sadat is dead, and his successor, President Hosni Mubarak, is anxious to end Egypt's estrangement from the other moderate Arab states.

Mubarak, however, has repeatedly maintained that the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty is an irreversible fact. "We intend to honor our commitments to Israel meticulously, in good faith, and without any wavering," he said last month. Egypt will not insist that the other Arabs join the Camp David process, but it will ask them to accept what Cairo has accomplished and quietly welcome Egypt back into the mainstream of Arab affairs. For several weeks there have been hints that some of the Arabs were looking for an excuse to do just that. Last week Sultan Qaboos of Oman paid a state visit to Egypt, and an Iraqi delegation arrived in Cairo to mark the resumption of regular air service between Egypt and Iraq. In the next few weeks Morocco and Egypt are expected to resume diplomatic relations.

In the meantime, Israel was engaged in a public and private debate over whether to launch an all-out strike against P.L.O. positions in Lebanon. The Cabinet was split over the issue. Opposition Leader Shimon Peres called on all parties concerned "to avoid an escalation." The respected newspaper Ha'aretz expressed its hope that "the government has not taken leave of its senses to such an extent that it would knowingly push for an overall military confrontation in Lebanon." But an aide to Prime Minister Menachem Begin declared that "sooner or later we shall have to do something." In the Israeli north, many people had already spent at least one night in air-raid shelters, obviously determined not to be caught unprotected in the event of a Palestinian artillery barrage.

Throughout the week, both Prime Minister Begin and President Mubarak conferred with U.S. Special Negotiator Richard Fairbanks, who was trying to get the stalled autonomy talks moving again. The sticking point at the moment: Israel's determination to hold at least one of the sessions in Jerusalem, and Egypt's desire to avoid making a gesture that might appear to be a recognition of Israeli sovereignty over all of the Holy City.

In Arab eyes that issue was overshadowed by the growing perception that Washington has no clear idea of how to pursue the peace process now that Israel has returned the Sinai to Egypt. The Reagan Administration's failure to press Israel to grant some form of autonomy to the Palestinian residents of the West Bank and Gaza, as provided in the Camp David agreements, has alarmed Arab leaders. It has given them the impression that the U.S. tacitly supports both the Begin government's increasingly firm military control of the occupied territories and its apparent plan to launch a powerful offensive against the P.L.O. in southern Lebanon. Whether that view is accurate or not, it has caused anger and confusion among the Arabs and set back the cause of peace. --By William E. Smith. Reported by David Aikman/Jerusalem and William Stewart/Beirut

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN, William Stewart

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