Monday, May. 17, 1982

Will the Pope Go or Not?

Trips to England and Poland now raise some delicate issues

Is it wise, or even possible, for a Pope to visit a largely non-Roman Catholic country that is warring with a Catholic nation? And is it possible, or even wise, for a Pope to plan on a summer visit to his beloved homeland, which last week was the scene of new national unrest? Even as Pope John Paul II and his entourage were preparing for this week's pastoral tour of Fatima and other Portuguese cities, they were reassessing the risks and opportunities of the politically sensitive journey to England later this month and a possible pilgrimage to Poland in August.

Of the three papal excursions, the Fatima visit was by far the easiest to decide. For some time the Pope has wanted to visit the Shrine of Our Lady of Fatima to give thanks for his recovery from the attempted assassination of last May 13--the 64th anniversary of the first apparition of the Virgin at Fatima.

The long-planned, historic six-day visit to Britain--the first by a Pontiff since the 1534 schism under King Henry VIII--obviously requires some difficult calculations. But informed Vatican sources were relatively confident that the Pontiff would proceed on schedule, unless the fighting in the South Atlantic escalates dramatically. As one Vatican official puts it, "If there were an absolute state of [all-out] war, that would be different. He would have to dissociate himself from that. But he has constantly stressed that his visit is a pastoral visit," which by Vatican thinking means that the Pope could tour England without appearing to choose sides between the Argentines and British. Indeed, to cancel the trip might imply that Britain is in the wrong and thus exacerbate antipapal feelings there. Militant Protestants have already marched in the streets of several British cities to protest the expected visit. While a go decision would naturally not sit well with Argentina, the planning has reached such an advanced state that cancellation at this point might generate more static than it would prevent. And last week John Paul, in a general audience at St. Peter's, again appealed for a negotiated settlement in the Falklands crisis.

A Polish trip would create its own problems. During his moving and momentous Polish tour of 1979, the Pope indicated that he wanted to return in August 1982 for the sixth centennial of the icon of the Black Madonna, the center of the nation's major shrine. Last week, on the very day that martial-law authorities were breaking up demonstrations in a dozen or more Polish cities, the Pope told pilgrims in the Vatican gardens: "I am morally obliged to be together with my countrymen for this great anniversary...I hold this to be a duty of mine, a duty of the heart, the duty of a son toward his mother and nation." But, the Pontiff added, "there must be created adequate conditions for this, and I count on it, in the name of the prestige of Poland." John Paul's remarks were another papal prod to get the regime to come to terms with the Solidarity movement. But Warsaw is convinced that a papal return would be dangerous under current conditions. While the regime is eager to avoid the onus of canceling the papal visit, prospects for the trip seem dimmer than ever.

The Pope's travel decisions will be made with the aid of two sagacious Vatican diplomats: Secretary of State Agostino Cardinal Casaroli and Archbishop Achille Silvestrini, Secretary of the Council for Public Affairs (in effect the Vatican's foreign minister). As heavily as he is relying on anyone, John Paul is leaning on these two highly experienced advisers. But "the Pope is very much his own man," remarks one Vatican observer, "and will make up his own mind." He does not appear to be basing his decision on the counsel of the British Catholic hierarchy. But he will no doubt listen with special attentiveness to American Archbishop Paul Marcinkus, who handles the logistics and security for papal trips. By week's end, the archbishop was in constant touch with Portuguese authorities ("There will be police and security men everywhere," said one Fatima official) and worrying, next things next, about details of the trip to England.

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