Turnaround on Two Fronts

By Marguerite Johnson

Morale soars with a victory over Iraq and growing stability

Not since the first spring of their revolution three years ago had Iranians seemed so self-confident. "It is time for you to count on the great power of the Iranian nation in this region," Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi proclaimed to the crowds that thronged to Imam Hossein Square in downtown Tehran to commemorate the founding of the Islamic Republic. Moussavi's exuberance was understandable: for the first time since Iraqi Strongman Saddam Hussein launched his invasion of Iran's oil-rich Khuzistan province 18 months ago, Iran could boast that it had gained the upper hand on the battlefield. Appropriately, the places of honor at the rally went to the front-line heroes and wounded soldiers of Iran's bitter struggle with its neighbor.

The sudden prospect of an all-out military victory cheered Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini's countrymen at a time when the government appears to have finally consolidated its powers. Until recently, political stability seemed beyond reach. Power struggles had racked virtually every sector of the government, and the economy was on the brink of ruin. An assassination campaign by leftist Mujahedin guerrillas claimed the lives of nearly the entire top tier of the government last year. Most costly of all has been the war with Iraq, which bled off $7 billion, or an estimated 17% of the government's annual budget. But the war also provided a strong rallying point for the nation. Says a Middle Eastern diplomat in Tehran: "The Iraqis gave [Iran's leaders] a chance to unite the people. The war gave the revolution the perfect means to hide some serious social and economic problems."

The Iranian offensive that altered the course of the war was dubbed "undeniable victory," and it proved to be quick and efficient. In a well-coordinated six-day campaign late last month, Iran's armed forces recaptured some 850 sq. mi. of territory in Khuzistan, all but decimating the Iraqi Fourth Army. Although the Iraqis had expected the operation, they were nevertheless caught off guard. Brigadier General Khatab Omar Najim, commander of the 60th Iraqi Armor Brigade and now an Iranian prisoner of war, told a group of Western correspondents that on the second day of the offensive, his front lines were resisting a moderate assault when suddenly his headquarters in the rear came under attack. "My entire staff was captured," he said. Iranian military officials claim to have inflicted 20,000 casualties and captured 15,500 Iraqi troops of a force that initially numbered 75,000.

Even allowing for some exaggeration, it was plain that the engagement was a disaster for Iraq. Dozens of burned-out Soviet-built tanks and hundreds of armored vehicles Uttered the flatlands, many mired in sand softened by March rains. A charred radar dish was draped with a poster of Khomeini and banners that proclaimed GOD is GREAT! Fired by religious fervor and a belief in the rightness of their cause, Iranian soldiers have proved to be a far more potent fighting force than Saddam Hussein expected. "When you believe in God, you win," said a young fighter pilot who, like many Iranians, had been trained in the U.S.; he still wore a breast patch from Laughlin Air Force Base in Del Rio, Texas. The Iranians have also worked something of a miracle with the sophisticated American weaponry with which the Shah had built the most feared arsenal in the Persian Gulf. Despite a lack of spare parts, F-4 Phantoms can be seen refueling in midair, and F-5 fighters take off on sorties fully armed with bombs and missiles.

The Iranians are poised to strike south toward the last and most important piece of territory still held by the Iraqis. That does not bode well for Saddam Hussein and his Arab allies. His chief military supporter, Jordan's King Hussein, rushed to Baghdad for consultations after the Iranian victory, as did Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan. Iranian officials insist that they have no plans to attack Iraq, but they do want compensation for war losses and an unconditional retreat to the previous border along the disputed Shatt al Arab waterway.

The sooner Iran can end the war, the sooner it can begin to recoup economically. Virtually all of the big development projects launched by the Shah have been standing half-finished because of shortages of cash, disputes over frozen assets and squabbles over priorities. Iran managed to sell only 1 million bbl. of oil a day last year, half as much as it had projected. Gasoline and staple foods are strictly rationed. Essential items such as meat, rice and sugar are distributed to poor and working-class areas first. Still, Tehran does not give the appearance of extreme hardship. Traffic jams can be paralyzing, and almost anything can be had for a price. A pair of blue jeans imported from Taiwan goes for $100 in the bazaar.

The government appears to have made gains in its internal war against the Mujahedin. This success has freed many units of the Revolutionary Guards, a civilian militia used to combat domestic opponents in the chaotic period following the revolution, to serve in the battle against Iraq. Fewer officials are being purged these days for political reasons, though Revolutionary Guards last week arrested former Foreign Minister Sadegh Ghotbzadeh, who has long been at odds with the ruling Islamic fundamentalists.

The greatest uncertainty Iran faces is what will happen when Khomeini, 81 and ailing, passes from the scene. Intense jockeying persists within the ranks of the ruling Shi'ite clergy, and even government officials acknowledge that the transfer of power poses great dangers.

--By Marguerite Johnson.

-- Reported by Roberto Sum/Tehran

With reporting by Roberto Suro

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