Reagan's Rising Woes

By John F. Stacks

A TIME poll shows slippage in his support--but his problems are reversible

He won the presidency in a landslide and governed through his first year with remarkable public support. His economic program rolled through Congress, overwhelming a demoralized opposition. Whatever skepticism there was about his policies and his competence was submerged in enthusiasm for the new directions he was setting. But now, a little more than a year after he took office, the political tides are beginning to run against Ronald Reagan.

Public confidence in his handling of the economy is draining away because of worries about recession and unemployment. Support for his foreign policy is diminishing, amid growing fears about a nuclear war and U.S. intentions in Central America. Finally, there are increasing doubts about Reagan's central campaign thesis that he could cut taxes, raise defense spending and balance the federal budget at the same time. One result: a clear majority of the country hopes that Reagan does not seek a second term as President of the United States.

These are the major findings of a public opinion survey conducted in mid-March for TIME by the research firm Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc.* The poll, of course, does not attempt to predict future attitudes toward the President and his policies. In many areas Reagan's sliding ratings match those of Jimmy Carter at a comparable period in his presidency. Carter rode the roller coaster of public opinion up and down through most of his four years in office.

Nonetheless, the Reagan downturn has come rather swiftly. Three months ago a TIME-Yankelovich survey found that 43% of those polled expressed "doubts and reservations" about the President, while a solid 55% said that they felt Reagan was a "leader you can trust." Now 51% said they have doubts, while 48% still trust him.

In two important policy areas, Reagan has also lost standing. A declining number of people, by comparison with last December's poll, expressed "a lot of confidence" in his handling of economic and foreign policy, while a growing number said they had "no real confidence." In December 25% of the voters told the Yankelovich pollsters they had full confidence in Reagan's economic management; that figure has dropped to 22% in the latest poll. Meanwhile, the President's "no confidence" rating has risen from 22% to 28% on this issue. On foreign policy, 20% had full confidence in Reagan (a drop of 5% since the December poll), while 31% said they had no confidence (compared with 22% in the previous poll). In the December survey, 25% said their impressions of Reagan had improved since he became President, while 26% said their impressions worsened. Now only 17% have an improved impression of the President; twice as many (35%) said their impression had worsened.

In December the Yankelovich pollsters asked voters to rate Reagan on a scale of 1 (poor) to 10 (excellent). Reagan received a median score of 5.9. His median has now dropped to 4.9. In December 59% gave him a score of 6 or higher, while only 39% rated him at 5 or lower. In the new survey 49% rated him on the high end of the scale and 50% on the low end.

As a man, Reagan is still liked by the voters. Indeed, 30% said that his personality was his strongest quality, while only 16% described his programs as his greatest strength. In an effort to discover the voters' overall political feelings about the President, the current survey asked voters whether they hoped Reagan would seek reelection. A majority (52%) said they hoped he would not run again while only 37% said they hoped he would.

Answers to the second-term question provided fresh evidence of the President's current weakness in the Northeast and Midwest, especially among blue-collar workers and union members. In these constituencies, the preference that Reagan not seek re-election corresponded roughly with the nationwide figures, while professionals and executives were evenly divided on the question. Even in the South and West, where Reagan's appeal is strongest, slight majorities of the voters preferred that he not seek a second term.

The voters still do not hold Reagan personally accountable for the recession. According to Yankelovich, 66% said they blamed Reagan himself either "not at all" or "only a little" for the economic downturn. Only 33% blamed him "a lot" or "fairly much," although this represents an increase of 8% since the December poll. At the same time 46% believe that the President's economic policy will help to curb inflation while only 21% said it will add to inflation.

Nonetheless, Reagan has failed to convince a majority of the voters that he can achieve his campaign pledge to cut taxes, increase military spending and balance the budget by 1986. An impressive 61% of those polled said that this is impossible. Even 49% of Republicans shared this view, while overall only 34% of the voters still had faith hat Reagan could deliver.

Americans continue to believe in balancing the budget: 67% said it was a very important economic goal. That conviction produced one surprising conclusion of the survey: a clear majority of the voters indicated that they do not want their taxes cut as long as federal deficits are soaring. Some 53% said the scheduled 10% tax cut this year should not take place, and another 10% said taxes should actually be raised. Fewer than one in three (31%) believed in reducing taxes.

The voters not only disagreed with Reagan on tax cuts; they also rejected his priorities for reductions in federal spending. Reagan so far is standing firm on his planned 18% increase in the defense budget, and wants further cuts in social spending. But the public heavily favors cutting the military budget (48%) rather than domestic programs (23%). Some 61% agreed with the proposition that "you don't get more national security by throwing money at the problem." The reluctance of both Congress and the White House to reform Social Security is currently shared by the public. In the survey, 63% opposed slowing down the rate of increase in Social Security payments--a proposal that offers huge potential budget savings--while only 33% favor the idea.

The Yankelovich poll shows that Americans continue to be concerned about economic problems--their own and the nation's.

More than 55% said they are not better off than they were a year ago (41% said they were), while nearly three-quarters (74%) said they felt the country as a whole is not better off than a year ago. It was felt by 74% that the recession would last through this year or even next, and nearly a third said they were concerned about a possible depression.

These worries about economic matters, and about Reagan's handling of them, theoretically spell trouble for the President. Nonetheless, Americans still have a basic optimism about the economic future: 82% said they have some, or a lot of, confidence that brighter times are coming. This suggests that Reagan's standing in the polls would change quickly if the economic picture were to improve.

A somewhat similar situation faces Reagan in foreign policy matters. There is widespread disagreement with his approach, but that disagreement is not firmly rooted and appears susceptible to change. For example, 73% of those polled said they are opposed to sending military and other aid to El Salvador, regardless of who wins the election there. Despite arguments to the contrary advanced by the Administration and other observers, 74% felt that U.S. involvement in El Salvador could "turn into another situation like Viet Nam."

And 63% said that by selling arms to Arab nations such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, the Administration was not helping to bring peace to the Middle East.

There is sharp public disagreement with Reagan on nuclear weapons policy. Some 71% said they favored emphasizing negotiations on disarmament rather than an expansion of the nation's nuclear arsenal. And 56% believe Reagan has emphasized the buildup of nuclear arms rather than disarmament negotiations. Indeed, almost a third of the voters said that Reagan's policies increase the threat of nuclear war, while 23% thought his policies decrease the threat. Reflecting the growing popularity of the nuclear-freeze movement, 70% favored resolutions urging the U.S. and Soviet governments to halt the testing, production and deployment of nuclear weapons.

These seemingly decisive rejections of Reagan's foreign policy, however, coexist with a widespread public attitude that the Soviet Union's military objectives are "offensive" as opposed to "defensive" (61% to 29%). More important, a new "volatility index" devised by the Yankelovich organization, which has been tested in previous polls, indicates that these opinions are easily subject to change. In addition to asking voters whether they favored or opposed a given proposition, the Yankelovich pollsters inquired how often voters discussed the issue, how deeply they felt it affected them, how easily they could change their minds and whether or not they felt fully informed.

According to Yankelovich, the volatility index shows that strong majorities in favor of registering handguns (60%) and against the outlawing of abortion (56%) are based on firmly held opinions. The index suggests, on the other hand, that American opinion on aid to El Salvador is very volatile indeed, as are views about arms sales to Arab nations.

The current survey demonstrates a troubling loss of popular support for the Reagan presidency. But it also suggests that, like Presidents before him, Reagan has simply passed through the period of mild euphoria that attends the early months of each new Administration. His loss of popular support is far from irreversible. An improved economy and the prospect of a budget more nearly in balance would doubtless lift his domestic ratings. It remains to be seen whether more coherent and consistent explanations of the Administration's foreign policy will influence public attitudes, or whether the statistical evidence of public disagreement will harden from volatile views to firmly held opinions--with intriguing political implications for the President and his advisers.

--By John F. Stacks

* The survey polled 1,019 registered voters nation-wide by telephone on March 16,17 and 18.The sampling error is plus or minus 3%. In comparing results of this study with previous TIME-Yankelovach polls, the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.

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