A Test of Heart and Mind

By Hugh Sidey

One by one Ronald Reagan's budget allies are dropping away. Their ardor for his leadership is cooling, but in one of those quirks of politics, they still love the man.

He knows what is happening. But if anything, his growing isolation seems to give him more fervor to hold his course. "I will not budge ... I intend to stand firm ... I am not going to change." These are declarations to the dozens of visiting members of Congress who have trudged through the Oval Office in the past few days. Most of them have pleaded with him to raise more tax revenue, cap entitlement and defense programs and reduce the deficits.

"There is something deeper," says an aide. "The President is willing to live with his results. He does not believe there is going to be a depression, and he is not going to talk about a downer." As Reagan's wife Nancy explains, "Ronnie always sees the glass half full." That is what is so stirring--and so chilling--about the President.

The main struggle of the presidency is being waged with the economic data that pour into the White House. It is also a psychodrama. Reagan's gut tells him that sheer faith will pull the nation through. That cannot be charted.

The ides of March looms as a crucial time. Pollster Richard Wirthlin and Counsellor Ed Meese have warned the President that just about now President Carter began to yield to outside clamor. He lost his power through retreat and vacillation.

Senator Bob Packwood complained that Reagan has a different shortcoming: when confronted with a serious budget proposal, the President tends to respond with a non sequitur."Didn't they know," chortled Congressman Barber Conable of New York, "that successful leaders often must fill awkward moments with digressions?"

Reagan now searches for evidence to bolster his position. Economist Milton Friedman came by the White House last week and told the President that interest rates were at an in-between stage. Bankers who were betting on a Reagan retreat, Friedman said, predict the rates will go still higher; those who believe he will not yield expect the rates to come down. Stand firm, the economist declared, and rates will fall. Reagan nearly hugged him.

It may be no accident that Reagan hurried to California last Tuesday. Later, his voice boomed through the phone to Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker about the promising view from the Pacific hills. And there is something else out there--old friends, the millionaire claque that got him where he is. Some believe that last Christmas, when Reagan was leaning toward increased taxes, he came back on course after a few dinners with the "kitchen cabinet." On his 30th wedding anniversary last week, friends gave him a new tractor lawnmower with the Presidential seal on it.

Those who stand nervously outside Reagan's circle still wonder if he has something up his sleeve. "You don't negotiate until you have to," says a G.O.P. leader. "There is no alternative from Congress yet." Reagan has been uncharacteristically careful with words. When Senator Pete Domenici made his budget proposals at the White House, Reagan gave no hint of his feelings. "Thank you very much," he said, and moved on to other business.

Does some of that legendary pragmatism remain in the President? If the economy falls into deeper trouble, will he acknowledge it and change course? Or if the Congress hands him a rewritten budget, will he go along?

There is one clue. A few days ago, Howard Baker went down to the White House to talk about accelerating the deregulation of natural gas. "You can try it but we will probably lose," said Baker. On such evidence from a man he trusts, Reagan's mind instantly overruled his heart. He postponed deregulation.

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