Hopeful Hints

A message from Angola

The Reagan Administration in the past year has quietly pursued negotiations for the independence of Namibia (South West Africa) along two tracks. The first has involved ironing out the fine points of establishing a constitution and scheduling free elections. That requires maintaining the confidence of both the South African government, which still administers Namibia in defiance of United Nations resolutions, and of Sam Nujoma, leader of the Marxist-oriented South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO), which has U.N. support. The second track has been to persuade Angola to rid itself of some 20,000 Cuban troops. In exchange, Angola would be assured a cease-fire in the hit-and-run war that South Africa has been waging for 15 years against SWAPO guerrillas, who have, in turn, conducted raids inside Namibia.

Progress on both tracks has been slow, but now the U.S.-led Western negotiating group, which includes Britain, Canada, France and West Germany, has new ground for modest optimism.

Most striking, perhaps, is the new willingness of Angolan President. Jose Havana have acted as security forces for Luanda's Marxist-Leninist government since their arrival in 1975. The Cuban presence has long discouraged the South Africans from considering a cease-fire along the Namibia-Angola border, a precondition for Namibian independence. Earlier this month, President Dos Santos met with Cuban Foreign Minister Isidore Malmierca Peoli in the Angolan capital. They agreed that Cuban troops would be withdrawn from Angola "as soon as all signs of possible invasion" from South Africa have stopped. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Chester Crocker had previously met with a high Angolan official to discuss the Cuban forces.

The Angolans have good reason for wanting to rid themselves of the Cubans. The impoverished Luanda government must pay the troops in precious hard currency. Moreover, the Cubans have not succeeded in stamping out the resistance of Jonas Savimbi, a South African-backed rebel whose forces roam free in much of southern Angola. Dos Santos evidently believes a Cuban withdrawal will bring in significant Western economic aid to exploit Angola's vast mineral resources. But any withdrawal of the Cubans would leave open to question the fate of Savimbi and his antigovernment forces. Says one U.S. analyst: "There are many divisions among Angolans. It's hard to figure out what they want."

Even so, a Cuban withdrawal from Angola would considerably ease Pretoria's fears of a Soviet-dominated axis of black states stretching from Mozambique on the Indian Ocean to Namibia on the Atlantic. The South African government recently made its most positive move toward Namibian independence so far by agreeing to Western-backed constitutional principles and a complicated set of procedures for elections, which would make up the first phase of a settlement. SWAPO, however, has balked at the complicated electoral rules, designed to protect the rights of Namibia's 100,000 whites (out of a total population of 1 million).

The second phase of a possible settlement would include guarantees for security and fairness during elections. These matters present problems for South Africa, which is concerned about the makeup and visibility of a proposed 7,500-member U.N. peace-keeping group that would supervise a cease-fire (see following interview). The South Africans are deeply distrustful of the U.N. since the General Assembly has declared SWAPO the authentic representative of the Namibian people. Given the South Africans' reluctance to relinquish the territory, a final settlement still seems elusive, but it may be a bit closer than ever before. qed

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