Moscow Mission

Just a friendly gesture

For months the Soviet Union has been gaining a long-coveted foothold in Iran. In mid-October the ruling Islamic Republic Party accepted Moscow's offer to send agents to Iran to strengthen Tehran's intelligence and security forces, as well as bolster the Islamic Guard, the I.R.P.'s military arm. Another Soviet team was dispatched to assist in rebuilding the country's devastated economy. Now the Soviets, in their boldest ploy to date, are pressing Iran to sign a mutual cooperation pact that would effectively draw Khomeini's revolutionary government into Moscow's sphere of influence.

The proposal was first made during a Nov. 18 meeting in Tehran between Vladimir Vinogradov, the Soviet Ambassador to Iran, and Iranian Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Vinogradov argued that the growing discontent of fundamentalist, right-wing clergymen with Khomeini's policies, together with what he called the "CIA-backed leftists" of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (People's Crusaders), had brought Iran to the brink of a civil war. Vinogradov told Mousavi that Iran would be ripe for a U.S.-backed counterrevolution. His deal: increased Soviet protection, presumably in the form of arms and technical advisers, in exchange for a formal five-to ten-year "friendship and mutual assistance treaty" between the U.S.S.R. and Iran. The Kremlin would stand ready to defend Iran against "foreign-led subversion."

The following day Mousavi briefed the Ayatullah on Vinogradov's proposal, then officially informed the Soviets that it was under consideration. Khomeini is known to be deeply suspicious of Moscow for its role in crushing Islamic revolutionaries in Afghanistan, and is wary of allowing Iran to become a strategic pawn of either superpower. But growing numbers of the ruling clergy are beginning to believe the Soviets can be used for protection and economic assistance without compromising Iranian autonomy.

The Soviets are keenly aware of the Khomeini regime's vulnerability. Iran's foreign reserves of $1 billion are drying up rapidly. The government needs $800 million more per month than its oil revenues provide just to supply the basic needs of its restive population. Since November the regime has had to divert $1.5 billion in development and welfare funds to help finance the prolonged war with Iraq. Oil exports have leveled off at 900,000 bbl. per day, providing $966 million a month in revenues, compared with $1.74 billion in 1978. In a nation of 39.8 million, 4 million are now jobless, and as many as 2 million are homeless because of the war. Some observers believe that much of private industry will come to a standstill by spring because of a lack of raw materials and spare parts.

The talks about the friendship treaty between Iran and the Soviet Union are reportedly continuing. The mullahs seem intent on drawing out negotiations in order to assure themselves of Soviet assistance without paying the political price of aligning the country with Moscow. But the Kremlin wants a signed deal before it will start to deliver.

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