Chip on His Shoulder

By Hugh Sidey

The Presidency

At least twelve hours before U.S. F-14 fighters shot down two Libyan jets over the Gulf of Sidra, the Western White House of Ronald Reagan was alert to the possibility of an incident. By Wednesday, more than 40 Soviet-made SU-22s swarmed up from Libyan airfields to probe the U.S. Navy task force on maneuvers. There was even a subtle Soviet endorsement for the Libyan flights.The Soviet destroyer Kashin, which was only a few hundred yards away, trained its guns on ships in the task force, a direct violation of the safety-at-seas treaty signed by the U.S. and the Soviets in 1972.

Reagan knew the confrontation was coming and so did his men, right to the flyers in the F-14s. It was not to be "a direct provocation," explained one of the architects for the maneuvers. But the U.S. "had placed a chip on its shoulder, and the Libyans could try to knock it off if they wished." Behind this bravado was the simple but passionate belief by Reagan that, at home and abroad, when the structures of civilization are threatened the President must respond quickly and decisively. Freedom of the seas was the principle at stake off Libya's coast and, according to one top Navy man, "we were not about to go into a confrontation without adequate force to prevail." Hence, the aircraft carriers Nimitz and Forrestal and 14 other ships formed Reagan's "Big Stick."

After four years of Jimmy Carter's bad timing and timidity in foreign affairs, the world has had to make quite an adjustment. The Soviets, while continuing to denounce Reagan on the surface, have grown oddly silent beneath the waves. By this time in Carter's first year, they had agreed to put troops into Ethiopia and were engineering a coup in Afghanistan.

While they still scoff publicly that all American Presidents are alike, accumulation of secret analysis now suggests an adversary slightly off balance. Instead of constantly challenging the U.S., the Soviets grow more eager to talk about reduction of world tension. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger believes that if Reagan holds his course, it could lead to a new era of superpower moderation.

"People had lost all faith in our capacity to act," declares Kissinger. "Now, they think Reagan is in charge." Kissinger's rules for the exercise of power are illuminating. There are no rewards for losing in the cause of moderation, he claims. Nor should a President agonize after making a decision. If he does, it conveys doubt and insecurity and invites renewed assault. Most crises, says Kissinger, get worse with time and get bigger if only nibbled at instead of bitten off. Kissinger's conclusion: if Reagan can sustain his reputation as quick, tough and total, that reputation is not likely to be challenged.

But reputations are not made of one or two incidents. They are the accumulation of many acts, big and small. Reagan's expanding foreign policy dossier includes decisions on the neutron bomb, Japanese auto imports, the Soviet grain embargo, arms to China. The Administration's domestic actions have also etched the Reagan image deeper in a number of ways.

Last week several Cabinet officers reported to the White House that by firing 12,000 illegally striking air controllers and not having second thoughts, Reagan may have enhanced his overseas respect more than by any other thing he has done. That view was reflected by London's Economist, a thoughtful publication that has kept meticulous accounts on Reagan. He has, the magazine noted, "astonished both his friends and his opponents . . . this is the week for ordinary people to call to him a clear 'bravo.' " Apparently the American people have been doing that. Pollster Richard Wirthlin last week hustled his latest sampling out to Reagan in California. It showed deepening support across the country--a feeling that Reagan's recent actions, from his victory over the air controllers right up to his air victory over Libya, have clearly been in the national interest.

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