"A" for Effort, "F" for Execution

The political fallout from Dasht-e-Kavir

"The worse I do, the more popular I get," mused President John F. Kennedy, baffled by his spurt in the polls after the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Can Jimmy Carter make political gains from a military misfortune? The consensus among political experts is that he may in the short run because the country tends to rally round a President in a crisis, even a crisis that he has caused. But on reflection the voters are likely to conclude that once again Carter has failed. Said Theodore Lowi, a political science professor at Cornell: "History has proved that presidential support always improves following a major foreign policy event. But such support will not be long-lasting."

The first test of Carter's support after the Iranian debacle came in the Michigan caucuses, where Ted Kennedy edged Carter by 71 delegates to 70. Said Sam Fishman, a political organizer for the United Auto Workers and a Kennedy backer: "If the rescue effort had been successful, Carter would have won by a fairly substantial margin. But it didn't work, and that had to have some negative impact."

Even so, Carter's presidential rivals were cautious about criticizing him. Kennedy did not utter a word of reproach. "Whatever our other differences," he said, "we are one nation in our commitment to the hostages, our concern for their families, and our sorrow for the brave men who gave their lives trying to rescue their fellow citizens." Ronald Reagan was equally restrained. Said he: "It is time for us as a nation and a people to stand united. It is a moment when words should be few and confined essentially to our prayers."

At a campaign stop in Livonia, Mich., George Bush was told by a high school senior: "We're students and we're scared to death about what we read this morning." Replied Bush: "Don't be scared. Support your President. That's what I'd do." The crowd burst into applause. Bush continued: "I have broken with the President on other things, but let me tell you, he made a tough decision." But then Bush added: "If the President had acted sooner, those hostages would have been out of there, and I believe that the U.S. would not have been subject to the dwindling erosion of respect around the world."

Of all the presidential candidates, John Anderson sounded the most critical note. Said he: "This is a very painful thing for a country that is dispirited at the moment because of the protracted nature of the crisis. This is one more blow to the body politic in the sense that Americans will really anguish over the fact that we could not carry out the rescue successfully. Even failure in what was a valiant and justifiable effort carries with it a certain price. My admittedly superficial reaction is that, to some extent, the President has suffered political damage."

Most voters did not question the President's intentions, only his competence. They gave him an "A" for effort but an "F" for execution. Said former Reagan Aide Lyn Nofziger: "Some will say at least he tried. But others feel that if we didn't know already he was inept, this proves it. Republicans are not clucking in glee. They are wringing their hands, like the guy I had lunch with who said, 'It took him five months to do this. He could have done it in five days.' " Wisconsin Democratic Congressman Henry Reuss urged Carter to withdraw from the presidential race so that he could "serve out his term in as dignified a manner as possible."

At week's end, one of the most anguished assessments of the domestic consequences of the rescue attempt came from a senior Democratic Senator. After being briefed by officials in the State Department, he too expressed concern that political considerations might have figured in Carter's decision to go ahead with the mission. Said the Senator: "The whole thing has heavy political overtones." The Senator concluded from his private briefing that the mission was one of high risk and that "no one would have done it who was not running for the presidency." Looking ahead at the political fallout from Dasht-e-Kavir, the Senator added: "My guess is that we are going to hear a lot of rumbles from this."

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