Garden Thorns

It isn 't all roses for Jimmy

"We all have to wonder and fear where we will be after four more years of the Carter Administration." This sort of taunt, shouted by Senator Edward Kennedy at the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO convention last week, is stirring considerable anxiety in the White House.

The President and his aides have no fear that Kennedy will somehow snatch away the Democratic nomination. Whatever the outcome of this week's Pennsylvania primary, Jimmy Carter's lead in delegates still looks insurmountable. But the President's aides fret that if Kennedy carries his challenge all the way to the convention in August, his increasingly sharp attacks will undermine Carter among traditionally Democratic voting groups whose support the President must retain to win reelection.

One warning signal for Carter was sounded at the Arizona caucuses on April 12. Kennedy took 55% of the vote, and probably will win 16 delegates to Carter's 13. While those numbers are small--and were partly offset by Carter's apparent win of eight delegates to Kennedy's five in Idaho's caucuses last week--White House strategists noted that Kennedy scored heavily among Arizona's Hispanics. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Kennedy's crowds of working-class whites and blacks were larger and more enthusiastic than the audiences that showed up for Carter's surrogates, principally Rosalynn and Vice President Walter Mondale.

Philadelphia Democrats not only gave Kennedy a warm reception but turned down an offer to hear Carter's campaign chairman, Robert Strauss. Said a local party leader: "We don't want anyone from the B team." Carter's advisers also fear that contributions may dry up. His re-election committee has raised $13 million but spent it all, and aides estimate they will need an additional $4 million for the remaining caucuses and primary campaigns.

To counter the damage, some aides urged Carter at a strategy session earlier this month to begin campaigning, at least in a few nonprimary states. Carter refused the advice. He sounded a little regretful of his pledge not to campaign actively until the hostages are freed, but he was unwilling to reverse himself. Several aides privately found his refusal stubborn and illogical. The President would permit them only to state publicly that he will not stay in the Rose Garden indefinitely: after the Democratic convention in August, he will come out and campaign. qed

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