Going Right

A conservative in Lisbon

Five years have passed since Portugal threw off half a century of dictatorship, but its road to a stable democracy remains bumpy. After eleven short-lived governments, assorted coups and countercoups, and much maneuvering between various military factions, the country is politically and economically weary. Following the fall of Socialist Premier Mario Scares' minority regime in mid-1978, the squabbling factions in the National Assembly were unable to agree on a new government. So last summer Portugal's President, General Antonio Ramalho Eanes, called an election in hope that a "coherent" left-of-center government would emerge. It was not to be. Last week, when a record 87.5% of the electorate went to the polls, the vote instead went narrowly to a new center-right coalition called the Democratic Alliance. Its leader, Francisco Sa Carneiro, 45, an ambitious, sometimes abrasive, conservative lawyer-politician, is expected to be named Premier.

The Alliance, composed of Sa Carneiro's Center Social Democrats, the Christian Democrats and the tiny Monarchist Party, picked up 42.2% of the vote. The final tally is expected to give the Alliance a governing majority of 128 or 129 of the parliament's 250 seats.

Scares' Socialists, punished by the voters for their dilatory performance while in power, got only 27% of the vote, vs. 35% in 1976. Although the share of the vote won by the Alliance parties was up by 4%, substantial gains were posted by Alvaro Cunhal's pro-Moscow Communists, whose share grew from 14.6% to 19%, reflecting increasing influence not only in industrialized Lisbon but also in the conservative, Roman Catholic north. With the next election due in the fall of 1980, Sa Carneiro must prove quickly that his government can do better than its predecessors in coping with Portugal's problems of rising inflation and unemployment, both now at about 25%, and falling business investment and living standards.

The diminutive (5 ft. 4 in.), energetic Sa Carneiro is accused by leftist detractors of acting like a "little king." He, in turn, scorns the willingness to compromise that was Scares' trademark. Says Sa Carneiro: "This was the evil of the Socialist Party. They conciliated with us and the Communists. It does not work." As a member between 1969 and 1973 of the rubber-stamp parliament of the post-Salazar dictatorship led by Marcello Caetano, Sa Carneiro pressed for political liberalization, including curbs on the brutal secret police. After the revolution, he was made a Minister Without Portfolio, but he soon quit to form his own party, which opposed nationalization of banks and major industries. Last year he quit the Center Social Democrats when half its Assembly members voted to support the Socialists. Sorely in need of his leadership, the party later welcomed him back as its chief.

Besides fighting with his leftist opponents, Sa Carneiro has defied the conventions of the Catholic Church, to which 90% of Portugal's population belong. While still married to a Portuguese wife, with whom he has had five children, he lives openly in Lisbon with Snu Bonnier Abecassis, 38, a Swedish publishing executive who is herself married. Nonetheless, Portugal's bishops backed his campaign, urging Catholics to "vote correctly," meaning for the Democratic Alliance, on Election Day.

As Premier, Sa Carneiro's initial strategy will be to consolidate the Alliance's narrow base in the Assembly and promote private investment in order to obtain a stronger majority in the 1980 elections. If the Democratic Alliance does well then, he would move to repeal the excesses of the revolution, chiefly by rolling back the collectivization of farms (a prime reason Portugal now imports 50% of its food) and curbing nationalized industries. In the meantime, says Sa Carneiro: "We will let the system function. Everybody, including us, will be very cautious because of the coming elections." With reason. If the conservatives fail, the voters might be inclined to turn to the one political group that has not yet had a chance to rule: the Communists.

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