Saber Rattling By Connally

A risky Middle East stand

To separate himself from the pack of Republican contenders, bold John Connally is staking out a series of controversial positions on U.S. foreign policy. As a political strategy it may be a shrewd move, but the policies themselves may prove risky, even dangerous.

Connally first startled the political establishment three weeks ago with his maverick call for "Palestinian self-determination." He said that in exchange this might win Arab promises of stable oil prices. He also suggested that the deal be policed by U.S. military power.

Connally's statement predictably evoked howls of outrage from friends of Israel, for whom "self-determination" is a synonym for an independent Palestinian state. They denounced it as capitulation to oil blackmail. Rita Hauser, a prominent New York Republican, quit her post as top Jewish adviser in Connally's campaign. Philadelphia Republican Mayoral Candidate David Marston publicly snubbed the Texan by refusing to be photographed with him.

Big John defended himself. Said he:

"I am a friend of Israel. To say that I have equated the price of oil to the liberty of Israel is rank distortion." The U.S., he said, is forever committed "by moral imperative" to protect Israel. But he refused to retract his plea for a new realism, adding: "I'm only saying America has broader interests in the Middle East."

Connally has a point, and he consulted such experts as Henry Kissinger and Jordan's King Hussein before adopting it. Although his proposal goes somewhat further than Jimmy Carter's support of a Palestinian "homeland," self-determination is obviously a principle that has widespread support. Indeed, some experts believe it is the only principle that can attract the volatile Palestinians to the negotiating table. Other experts wonder, nonetheless, what coercion would persuade the Israelis to agree to any plan that might bring the Palestine Liberation Organization to sovereign power. And, although the pro-Israeli protests may be exaggerated, any suggestion that political concessions might stabilize the price of oil seems improbable.

Last week in New York, Connally turned his expansive approach to foreign trade. Government and business must be more aggressive, he said, and must send a new breed of technological "Yankee traders" to exploit rich Asian markets. Most notably, like Democratic Presidential Aspirant Jerry Brown, Connally advocated a North American common market. "This economic union would be a formidable trading bloc," he said. Here too there are problems. Mexico has already denounced the idea as little more than latter-day Yankee imperialism designed to capture Mexican oil. It is also, according to one prominent businessman, ''hideously complex.''

Most troubling-- but also perhaps most politically appealing-- is Connally's hand-on-the-holster posture. Talking to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, Connally elaborated his call for in creased U.S. military presence around the world. ''The growth in the size and capability of Soviet strategic forces exceeds the Nazi buildup of the '30s,'' Connally warned. In the Middle East, particularly, he demanded that the U.S. ''move quickly to establish a rough balance of military power.'' By that he meant that the U.S. should have ''major Air Force components operating from the former Israeli airfields in the Sinai and a new Fifth Fleet stationed in the Indian Ocean.''

Though U.S. diplomats favor resisting So viet pressure on the Middle East, they see little benefit in committing U.S. armed forces to the area. They warn that such a move might goad Moscow to respond in kind, perhaps by dispatching Soviet troops to buttress Syrian positions near the Golan Heights.

The rhetoric of military confrontation may sound splendid in a political cam paign, but if voters consider the perils of stationing U.S. armed forces in the Middle East, they may find saber rattling a less effective policy than it was in the days when wars were fought with sabers.

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