Troubled Waters

Challenges for the U.S. and targets for Cuba

"If a nation shows that it knows how to act with reasonable efficiency and decency in social and political matters, if it keeps order and pays its obligations, it need fear no interference from the U.S. Chronic wrongdoing, or an impotence which results in a general loosening of the ties of civilized society, may in America, as elsewhere, ultimately require intervention by some civilized nation, and in the Western Hemisphere the adherence of the U.S. to the Monroe Doctrine may force the U.S., however reluctantly, in flagrant cases of such wrongdoing or impotence, to the exercise of an international police power."

Since Teddy Roosevelt issued that paternalistic "corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine in 1904, the U.S. has patrolled the Caribbean like a cop on a beat, using its "big stick" to enforce the "primary laws of civilized society." It has aborted revolutions, overthrown unacceptable governments, and sent in troops to restore order in several Caribbean nations, including Haiti, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic. Today, however, the Caribbean can no longer be considered an "American Lake." Travel ads entice U.S. tourists with the promise of swaying palms and unspoiled vistas of sandy beach. But the nationalistic winds sweeping through the Third World have created a new mood of anti-imperialism in the Caribbean, directed against the big Brother to the north. Says Deputy Prime Minister George Odium of newly independent St. Lucia: "The Caribbean is going through a period of searching for its own structures and systems. Traditionally we have had the Western systems and structures. Now we are looking at them to see how they are related to our own circumstances."

Washington is troubled by the new atmosphere in the area. In recent months there have been fears that the Caribbean has become an arena for superpower rivalry, with Havana, as usual, acting as Moscow's surrogate. Says a U.S. official: "There is a great concern that America and its ideological values are in retreat. If the Cubans were to lure the little island countries of the eastern Caribbean into their sphere of influence, it would send shock waves throughout Central America all the way to Cape Horn."

Indeed, some of those tremors have already been felt: 1) the five-week-long diplomatic wrangle with Moscow over the presence of a 2,600-man Soviet combat brigade in Cuba; 2) the Cuban-supported Sandinista revolution that overthrew Nicaragua's Dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle last summer; 3) the left-wing coup in Grenada last March, which replaced Prime Minister Sir Eric Gairy with a socialist regime that established relations with Havana. There is worry in Washington that the Sandinista revolt could spill over into El Salvador and Guatemala, where repressive military regimes are struggling against leftist dissidents. Grenada's warm embrace of Havana could set an example for other former British island possessions in the eastern Caribbean.

On Oct. 1, as a result of treaties ratified by the Senate in 1978, the U.S. ceded control of the Canal Zone to Panama, a country where anti-American voices can still be heard loud and clear. The U.S. will keep control of the canal itself until the 21st century, and retains the right to use military force to ensure its security. Nonetheless, some Congressmen were so concerned that Panama, at Cuba's urging, might eventually deny U.S. merchant vessels access to the canal that they nearly defeated legislation needed to put the treaty into effect.

U.S. policymakers also are watching the growing Cuban influence in Jamaica, where socialist Prime Minister Michael Manley has pursued increasingly close ties to Castro's government. Although Jamaica received $23 million in U.S. aid in 1978, it remains an economic basket case second only to Haiti in the hemisphere. Foreign debt has doubled in the past two years, and joblessness has led to bitter riots in the streets of Kingston. The lack of opportunities has led to a "brain drain" exodus of doctors, lawyers and technicians. There are now some 450 Cuban advisers on the island; most are civilian experts in agriculture, construction, education and public health. But Cuba's Ambassador to Jamaica, Ulises Estrada-Lescalles, has been identified by Western intelligence sources as an agent of the DGI, Cuba's counterpart to the CIA. British intelligence, noting that Manley is "walkIng a perilous tightrope," fears he may have to move Jamaica even further left to avoid being overthrown.

Unsettling developments are also taking place to the south and east. Guyana, site of last November's Jonestown horror, is ruled by the quixotically socialist government of Prime Minister Forbes Burnham, who is being pushed even further left by more radical opposition groups. Guyana now hosts 65 Cuban civilian advisers. A dozen or so Cuban advisers are also in the tiny Windward Island of St. Lucia (pop. 120,000), now ruled by newly elected leftist Premier Allan Louisy and his tough Marxist deputy, Odium. St. Vincent and Antigua, British colonies that are scheduled to become independent during the next few months, have well-developed radical leftist movements that could try to duplicate the Grenada coup once the Union Jack is pulled down for the last time.

Does the growing Cuban involvement in the Caribbean mean that Castro has revived his previously abandoned policy of attempting to "export revolution" throughout the region? The answer appears to be yes. Reports TIME Diplomatic Correspondent Strobe Talbott: "Officials at the State Department and National Security Council have no doubt --and indeed they have some evidence --that the Kremlin's department of global mischiefmaking, acting through its regional surrogates, the Cubans, are stirring up trouble in the once placid Caribbean, and then fishing in those troubled waters for political influence."

If that troublemaking were purely military, the U.S. might find it easy to confront. Despite recent buildups in the Cuban arsenal, which now includes at least one Soviet-supplied submarine and MiG-23 jet fighters, U.S. firepower is overwhelmingly superior. Moreover, President Carter has moved to strengthen U.S. forces in the Caribbean.

But Castro has chosen to challenge U.S. hegemony in the Caribbean by picking "targets of opportunity"--places where a minimum of aid can yield high propaganda dividends without directly confronting U.S. might. In Nicaragua, Castro did little more than supply arms and some training for the Sandinistas, who also received assistance from Latin America's remaining handful of democracies. Instead of attempting to foment revolutions, the Cuban leader has launched an aggressive campaign of diplomacy and aid that speaks to the social ills plaguing the Caribbean. Says a British Caribbean specialist: "The Cubans did not create these conditions. They were opportunities which developed over time and are rooted in a younger generation's rejection of poverty, unemployment and what they regard as U.S. neocolonialism."

As a U.S. official adds, "Cuba represents an alternative path to development, very different from the old traditional British model that hasn't worked too well." Years after independence, former British colonies remain, almost without exception, poorly endowed with natural resources and handicapped by single-commodity, export-oriented economies that present few opportunities for rapid growth or full employment. Unemployment in the 22 Caribbean nations averages 40%. Millions of their citizens, including thousands of Haitian boat people, have made their way to jobs in America.

In most cases, the new Caribbean nations depend on their former colonial masters to buy their largely agricultural products. Trapped between their dependence on the one hand and their need to assert their independence on the other, many have adopted an anti-Western stance. Even though Cuba survives only by massive infusions of Soviet aid (an estimated $2.5 billion a year), Castro's nose-thumbing attitude toward the U.S. and his admitted achievements--notably the elimination of illiteracy--provide an alluring model for Cuba's neighbors. Says Abraham Lowenthal, a U.S. authority on Latin America: "These countries are satellites in search of an orbit. They may become part of the Cuban orbit, but not for military reasons. If the Cubans succeed, it will be because Cuba is able to convey a greater sense of social and economic integration, a greater sense of nation-building and a greater ability to employ people. "

Cuba has been careful to aim only at those targets where it can win friends with a minimum investment. In Grenada, for example, notes one businessman, "the Cubans made an excellent choice of aid when they gave the island its first fishing trawler"--a 65-ft. vessel that will greatly augment the tiny catch made by the country's fleet of small, open fishing boats. In an interview with TIME, Grenada's Socialist Prime Minister Maurice Bishop claimed that "one of the reasons Cubans are in Grenada is because the Americans aren't." He said it took ten days after the coup for U.S. Ambassador Frank Ortiz to assure him that the U.S. would not intervene on behalf of Gairy, a bizarre advocate of voodoo and flying saucer research. The Prime Minister also said that Ortiz gave him a list specifying which nations Grenada could establish relations with. ("We are a soverign country and nobody has the right to tell us who our friends are.") The State Department flatly denies Bishop's charge.

Cuba does not attempt to intervene in countries where only large infusions of aid could produce perceptible change, or relatively well-off countries where local governments are strong enough to resist Communist incursions. Haiti, with a per capita income of only $230 a year, is an example of the former. Explains an exiled opposition leader: "Who would want to inherit Haiti's problems?" Castro's ambitions have also been frustrated on Dominica, where Hurricane David blew away not only thousands of homes, but the odds-on chance that Leftist David Rosie Douglas would unseat Prime Minister Oliver Seraphin in the December elections. When Grenada's Prime Minister Bishop and a team of Cubans arrived on the little island (750 sq. mi.) with a promise of $5 million in relief assistance from Havana, they were greeted by scores of U.S. flags fluttering from surviving buildings. The spontaneous display of the flags, (which a merchant had brought to the island to be sewn into colorful shirts) indicated that the U.S. had beaten the Cubans to a Caribbean disaster with tangible aid--for a change.

In the Caribbean and elsewhere, claimed Castro last week, "we are being very discreet and trying hard not to embarrass Carter." He made the statement the night before he left New York, at an informal dinner for heads of U.S. news organizations, including Time Inc. Castro claimed that he once talked Panama's Omar Torrijos out of seizing the Canal when negotiations with the U.S. were stalled; that he is eager to begin pulling his troops out of Africa as soon as the situation in Namibia and Zimbabwe-Rhodesia is settled; and that Zbigniew Brzezinski is personally to blame for "the mess-up" in U.S.-Cuban relations by giving President Carter bad, inflammatory advice.

In fact, Jimmy Carter may be the first U.S. President to have what can fairly be called a Caribbean policy. He expressed his interest in the region early by dispatching his wife Rosalynn, Secretary of State Cyrus Vance and then U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young on official visits. In 1977 the National Security Council set up an interagency task force to review the area's problems. Two months ago Vance sent former Under Secretary of State Philip Habib on a ten-day tour of the area to re-examine U.S. policy. Among Habib's still secret recommendations: providing generous aid through multilateral organizations like the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development, which includes several European nations as well as Venezuela, Japan, Brazil and Canada. Though some Caribbean nations would prefer unilateral assistance from the U.S., a multinational approach would short-cut the resentment that stemmed from John Kennedy's Alliance for Progress, which many Caribbeans viewed as an attempt by the U.S. to play a "big daddy" role.

Money alone will not turn the Caribbean into paradise. After all, Puerto Rico gets more than $1 billion in federal aid, but unemployment hovers at 18% and the living standard is well below that of the mainland U.S. Still, there is a growing recognition by the Administration that "poverty is the real menace" --to cite the words of Francisco Pena Gomez, secretary-general of the Dominican Republic's ruling party. As one policymaker puts it, "There's a feeling that the U.S. should get more involved with a country like Nicaragua or a Caribbean island that is lashing out at us. The more we get involved, the more likely we are to see a moderate outcome. If we walk away from problem countries, we'll only encourage radicalism."

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