Is the Kennedy Quake Coming?

Signals from the Senator

Political seismographs throughout the U.S. have long been tuned to record any tremor signaling the quake that would rock the presidential campaign of 1980: the entrance of Democratic Senator Edward Kennedy into the race. Last week the Kennedy-watch instruments detected rumblings that made a party-rending announcement seem ever more likely, if not imminent.

The most notable sign was a frontpage report in the New York Times, immediately picked up by wire services and printed throughout the nation, that the Senator had talked during the congressional recess with his mother Rose, 89, and his estranged wife Joan, and that both had assured him of their support if he decided to seek the presidency. Each had earlier made separate public statements to the same effect. What was different was that the Times had got its story from Kennedy's Washington office. This was taken as evidence that Kennedy now wanted to publicize his family's backing. Indeed, when asked by other reporters, Kennedy readily confirmed the story, explaining, "Family considerations have always been a matter of enormous importance, and they continue to be. I suppose it is only natural I would talk with the members of my family."

Despite all the polls that show Kennedy the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination, the question of family opposition had long been considered a major obstacle to his candidacy. It was said that Rose, fearing for his safety, would resist letting her only surviving son run the risk of assassination. Another report was that Joan, who has been living in Boston apart from her husband and has undergone treatment for alcoholism, might strenuously object to any new public attention being forced on their relationship. Kennedy, however, attended his wife's 43rd birthday party in Hyannis Port on Labor Day weekend, and there suddenly were reports of a possible reconciliation.

The Senator has also worried lest a presidential race would leave him insufficient time to carry out the responsibilities he has assumed to aid the 13 children of his two slain brothers,* as well as his and Joan's three children. The family reassurance presumably eased that problem for him.

One thing seemed certain: there is now no way to stop the burgeoning draft-Kennedy movement, short of the Senator's declaring that he will not accept his party's nomination under any circumstances. It is flourishing in some 26 states.

In Florida, for example, a 43-member Kennedy committee has been at work since May. It has a full-time staff of eight salaried members, claims 100 full-time volunteers, has raised $50,000 and created organizations in 51 of the state's 67 counties. The committee is headed by Political Veterans Mike Abrams and Sergio Bendixen, who were early Carter work ers in 1975. Insists Abrams about Kennedy: "There's no doubt in our minds that he's running."

A Kennedy write-in drive is also well under way in New Hampshire, headed by Political Pros Dudley Dudley, a state executive councilor, and Joanne Symons, former Democratic state chairwoman. Like the Florida leaders, Dudley contends that she has received a clear but undisclosed signal that Kennedy will be running. Three people are working on full-time salaries to organize the Kennedy write-in campaign. Kennedy might well run ahead of Carter in the nation's first primary election on Feb. 26, even if Kennedy's name is not on the ballot.

To enter the primaries formally, Kennedy can wait until late December before making any announcement of candidacy, since the first state filing deadline, New Hampshire's, is Dec. 28. In fact, weekend reports had Kennedy planning a firm go-or-no-go decision by Thanksgiving. Last week's stories made Kennedy advocates more certain than ever that they have a willing -- and leading -- candidate.

* One of those children, Robert's son David, 24, who has repeatedly been charged with traffic violations, reported last week to New York City police that he had been robbed of $30 by three strangers in a Harlem hotel known to detectives as a hangout for drug users and dealers. Police doubted his account of being mugged, and some residents of the area claimed that he was a frequent visitor who purchased drugs there.

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