Fading Fervor

Khomeini is challenged but still in charge

"God, tell me it's a bad dream," sobbed the woman as she bent over her badly wounded husband in downtown Tehran. The couple had been among the more than 100,000 people who took to the streets last Sunday to protest the closure of the popular daily Ayandegan by the increasingly repressive rule of Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini. As they marched, they chanted slogans denouncing the "regime's encroachments on the people's fundamental liberties." Suddenly, sacks of fine earth were flung into the air by bands of marauding "phalangists," street toughs who break up antigovernment demonstrations. As the thick dust enveloped the crowd, the phalangists attacked with knives, clubs, iron bars, cleavers, chains and knuckle-dusters. In the confusion and panic some 200 people were injured. The demonstration, intended to be peaceful, had been called by the National Democratic Front, an alliance of liberal-democratic parties opposed to the dictatorial trend of the Islamic clergy.

The next day, in a counterdemonstration, more than 200,000 supporters of Khomeini marched in the streets of the capital. Roving bands of militants attacked the offices of leftist organizations, beating up their members and chanting, "Communism shall die, Islam shall win!" Despite a pledge by Minister of Interior Hashem Sabbagian to prevent violence, 1,000 demonstrators first ransacked and then occupied the headquarters of the Marxist Fedayan-e Khalq (People's Sacrifice guerrillas). Khomeini's supporters were prevented from occupying the offices of another leftist group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (People's Crusaders), only by a sit-in staged by young Mujahedin supporters declaring, "You will first have to walk over our dead bodies."

Not since Khomeini took power seven months ago had there been such scenes of violent protest in the capital. The repeated clashes throughout the week seemed to be a test of strength over the course of Iran's revolution. In his message to the nation on Jerusalem Day, set aside to demonstrate international Islamic solidarity with the Palestinians, Khomeini gave an ominous warning to his country's leftists. Said he: "I shall give the final word if you continue your devilish scheming." The Fedayan had issued a warning of their own. "Hundreds of us died in our struggle against the deposed Shah. We shall not balk at dying by the thousands in a war imposed on us by imperialism and its local agents, the reactionaries."

Was Khomeini beginning to lose popular support for his Islamic theocracy? Despite broader opposition the answer seemed to be no. Said a British diplomat: "We see troubles on the streets, but nothing on the scale of a civil war." While Khomeini's authority is being more openly challenged, the revolution still belongs to the Ayatullah and the conservative religious leaders who support him. They are backed by a nationwide "mosque structure" that acts as both an administrative and intelligence system for Khomeini, allowing him to reach out from his head quarters in the holy city of Qum to every corner of the country. His authority continues to overshadow that of the civil government headed by Premier Mehdi Bazargan. Khomeini's orders are enforced -- and often misinterpreted -- by thousands of armed "komitehs," local revolutionary organizations that in many cases are the only effective government.

The Revolutionary Guards that support Khomeini are made up of thousands of young militants who in effect comprise a national militia, desperately trying to keep order. Iran's regular armed forces, thoroughly demoralized in the wake of the Shah's departure and a wave of executions of senior officers, have ceased to be an effective government instrument.

Though the clergy is divided into moderate and conservative factions, and many disagree with Khomeini's conservatism, it has a vested interest in the new Islamic order. Says the Ayatullah Sadegh Khalkhali, former head of the controversial revolutionary court: "The mullahs staged the revolution and have come to power; they will stay in power whether the U.S. or the Soviet Union likes it or not."

Arrayed against the conservative mullahs are the highly vocal, well-organized forces of the left, veterans of years of underground opposition to the Shah. The two largest organizations are the Fedayan and the Mujahedin, similar in their socialist outlook, though the Fedayan is secular while the Mujahedin's beliefs are rooted in the Koran. In the wake of last week's attacks on their offices, though, Khomeini now risks driving these leftist groups underground. Says one Fedayan leader: "We are used to operations in a pervasively hostile atmosphere. We never allowed ourselves to develop flabby waistlines, with or without the Shah."

The moderate opposition, led by the National Front and its offshoot, the National Democratic Front, reflects the views of Iran's educated middle class. The trouble is that all the moderate political organizations are badly organized and largely ineffective.

While accepting the creation of an Islamic republic, they reject the antidemocratic views of the dominant clergy, including increasing restrictions on the press. Last week the government issued new rules that held foreign journalists "responsible for any article that is against the Islamic revolution." The moderates object in particular to the recently elected Assembly of Experts, a form of constituent assembly that this week begins to consider Iran's new draft constitution. Though the draft calls for an elected parliament (Majlis), it nevertheless leaves effective power in the hands of the clergy.

In the meantime, the government has to contend with increasing regional unrest among the nation's minorities and a deteriorating economic situation. Last week Kurdish rebels claimed to have shot down an Iranian Air Force F-4 Phantom jet in western Iran after fierce fighting broke out in the town of Paveh between Revolutionary Guards and Kurdish tribesmen. Even more worrisome for the oil-consuming industrial nations, however, is the danger of unrest among the 2 million Iranian Arabs in Khuzistan, center of Iran's oil industry. An inflamed Khuzistan would pose a serious threat to Iran's oil production, vital to the U.S., Japan and Western Europe.

Though Iran is currently earning $24 billion a year from oil, and there is no shortage of cash or foreign exchange reserves, government officials privately acknowledge that the rest of the industry is running at about 50% capacity. The result has been an unemployment rate of about 20%. Two weeks ago there were food riots in Tabriz, Iran's fourth largest city.

Despite rising discontent, it is clear that at present Khomeini's support dwarfs that of the divided opposition, which lacks any leader of comparable stature. Last Friday an estimated 1 million people thronged the streets of Tehran and other major cities at Khomeini's call to demonstrate their solidarity with the Palestinians. The message to a frustrated opposition was clear: they may threaten with their thousands, but for the present Khomeini has the support of millions. -

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