Hanoi vs. ASEAN's Paper Tigers

A formidable army alarms Viet Nam's neighbors

Fear of Viet Nam's military might casts a doleful shadow over the future of every non-Communist country in Southeast Asia. Man for man, weapon for weapon, Hanoi's 600,000 troops constitute the most redoubtable middle-size army in the world, with the possible exception of Israel's. If the Vietnamese invaded Thailand, and if Bangkok called on its near neighbors for help, the combined five-nation ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) forces would be paper tigers in the face of Hanoi's overwhelming superiority in experience and firepower. Since Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore would be capable of sending only token military aid to Thailand, that country's untried forces would be quickly subdued.

Though the U.S. is committed to providing Thailand with extensive weaponry (but no troops) in case of a Vietnamese invasion, Washington has granted Bangkok only $30.8 million in military assistance this year. Peking has assured the Thais that it would come to Bangkok's aid with troops if their country is invaded. China's invasion of Viet Nam last February provided few clues to the capabilities of the 3.5 million-man People's Liberation Army, since the Chinese withdrew before engaging in a major encounter with regular Vietnamese forces. Currently, China is trying to upgrade its obsolescent weaponry by buying arms from Western Europe.

Last week, TIME correspondents interviewed military analysts in Washington and Southeast Asia. Their estimate of the current alignment of forces:

> VIET NAM. Hanoi's 600,000-man army has proved itself eminently capable of fighting conventional wars as well as guerrilla operations when copiously supplied from the outside. Viet Nam's formidable arsenal includes American-made equipment that was captured intact with the fall of South Viet Nam's President Nguyen Van Thieu: 800,000 M-16 rifles, 550 tanks, 130,000 tons of ammunition and 1,000 aircraft of varying types. Lately, Hanoi has acquired some highly effective Soviet-made weaponry, including 900 medium and light tanks. Its 300 combat aircraft, mostly MiGs, are of Soviet or Chinese manufacture.

> THAILAND. Like most of the ASEAN forces, Thailand's 141,000-man army is designed for counterinsurgency and internal security. Its forces have not fought a major battle for about 150 years, although a few Thai units saw limited action in Korea and Viet Nam. While the Thai soldier would give a good account of himself if his country were invaded, he would be hamstrung by inexperienced leadership and unsophisticated weapons. The country's arsenal consists mainly of 149 aircraft and 150 U.S.-made M41 light tanks. On order are 149 British-made Scorpion reconnaissance vehicles that one local military specialist described as a "Jeep with a 76-mm gun on top." The illogical purchase of the Scorpions was arranged by a Thai general with a widely rumored penchant for profiteering.

> MALAYSIA. The British-trained, racially mixed Malaysian forces are composed of a largely nonmechanized army of 52,500 that is engaged in a counterinsurgency war against Malaysian Communist guerrillas entrenched near the Thai border. The army has embarked on a massive modernization program, which is expected to be completed by 1983, but the Malaysians have had no experience in big-unit warfare and would probably be overwhelmed if confronted with massed armor and artillery.

> INDONESIA. Its poorly equipped army of 180,000 men is used for internal security on an archipelago that includes more than 3,000 islands. It packs no offensive punch, the logistics are wretched and communications all but impossible. The Indonesian navy, one of the largest in Asia, has three submarines, eleven frigates and 22 large patrol craft. The air force has 28,000 men but only 32 combat aircraft--some of them out of service because of a lack of spare parts.

> THE PHILIPPINES. The 63,000-man Filipino army has had little conventional combat experience since the Korean War. Bolstered by an additional 45,000-member constabulary force, it keeps busy fighting the Muslim rebels of the Moro National Liberation Front in the southern Philippines, and the Maoist-led New People's Army mainly in Luzon and the Visayan Islands. In part because of the country's corrupt leadership, Washington analysts grade the Filipino performance and prospects a dismal Cminus.

> SINGAPORE. Its small army of 30,000 is by far the finest in non-Communist Southeast Asia. Both the army and air force have an impressive armory, including 75 AMX-13 tanks, 530 personnel carriers, 60 155-mm howitzers and 103 modern combat aircraft. Though Singapore is spending over $400 million a year on its tough little army, one U.S. specialist notes that "it doesn't have that much to offer in terms of quantity that would make the difference."

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