Riddle of the Triple Crown

Why, so suddenly, a parade of super horses?

When the big, three-sided trophy by Cartier was inaugurated by the Thoroughbred Racing Association in 1950, only nine horses, from Sir Barton in 1919 to Citation in 1948, had earned the right to have their names engraved on the emblem of the Triple Crown of American racing. After Citation, 25 long years passed before Secretariat added another name to that most select circle, and through the long drought, one question bedeviled breeders, owners, trainers and bettors alike: Why were there no Triple Crown champions?

But once Secretariat broke the spell in 1973, there followed in quick succession a parade of superhorses. Seattle Slew won the title in 1977, Affirmed last year, and this year Spectacular Bid is the favorite to capture the Belmont Stakes on Saturday and, with it, the coveted Triple Crown. The new question: Why are there suddenly so many champions?

Mathematically, at least, the chances of producing such a champion seem much reduced: only 1,665 foals were registered when Sir Barton won; 8,434 when Citation won in 1948; last year the number was 31,326. Alfred Gwynne Vanderbilt, member of one of America's most distinguished racing families, pondered the problem last week and concluded, "I can't think of any logical reason for more Triple Crown horses lately. And if we do get a third in a row this year, I think it's mostly chance."

Most owners and trainers agree. Says John Veitch, trainer for the legendary Calumet Farms: "A number of horses over the past 30 years or so have had a chance to win the Triple Crown, but they've had bad luck and broken down before they had a shot."

In the quarter-century between Citation and Secretariat, the vagaries of racing luck saw six horses win the first two races of the Triple Crown, only to falter over the 1 1/2-mile course of the Belmont Stakes. In 1958 Tim Tarn was leading the field with one-eighth mile to run when he broke his leg. In the 1953 Kentucky Derby, Native Dancer was bumped and then forced to go so far outside that he could have stopped for a mint julep in the clubhouse. He won the Preakness and the Belmont, but his Triple Crown was lost. Nashua, Needles, Damascus, Riva Ridge--the list of excellent colts that were upset is sad and long. In some years, the fields were so strong that the horses killed one another off. In 1957 three exceptional horses divvied up the Triple Crown: Gallant Man, Iron Liege and Bold Ruler.

If racing luck remains important on the track, luck in the breeding shed is also still chancy. Every horsebreeder follows the maxim: "Breed the best to the best and hope for the best." One of the factors in the mix that has produced so many dominant horses is that, for reasons science cannot explain, Bold Ruler has proved to be unusually adept at what breeders call "stamping his get," i.e., passing on his strong points to his descendants. Bold Ruler is the sire of Secretariat, the grandsire of Spectacular Bid, the great grandsire of Seattle Slew.

A top stallion like Bold Ruler is more accessible for breeding than the sires of a generation ago. Before the second World War, a few wealthy racing families bred, foaled, raced and retired to stud much of the finest American bloodstock. "Today," says Lucien Laurin, trainer of Secretariat, "it's easier to get better breeding because it's more of an open breeding market." The reason: the proliferation of commercial breeders and the widespread syndication of top stallions. The owners of Spectacular Bid, as well as Seattle Slew, certainly are not members of racing's Establishment.

Winning sires are also more productive now than in the past. Brownell Combs II of Spendthrift Farm, one of the largest commercial breeders in the world, says: "Stallions now 'cover' around 40 to 45 mares, whereas 30 years ago, they would only service 30 or so." Another possible reason for the recent rise of so many champions may be simply a siphoning off of quality competition. A total of $118 million worth of horses and syndication rights were auctioned by Kentucky's Keeneland Association last year, and $24,668,933 was spent by foreign buyers. Admits Keeneland President Ted Bassett: "The large number of topflight horses that are purchased by foreign buyers could mean that some of the great colts, perhaps even potential Triple Crown winners, have gone to Europe to race."

Other experts suggest that the number of top horses contending for the Crown may have been diminished by the rapid growth of racing days nationwide. Many horses are raced out by the end of their two-year-old campaigns and retired. The breeders of others now pick and choose among rich purses scattered across 15 states rather than risk everything for show money in the Triple Crown events in a year when a really fine horse like Spectacular Bid turns up. In 1948 there were 696 stakes and feature races, only nine with purses of $100,000 and up. In 1977 there were 1,687, and 93 superrich purses to share. Says Trainer Woody Stephens, who developed Cannonade: "Why run my horse against a 1-to-10 shot for $40,000 second-place money, when I can take him out to Ohio or Illinois and have a chance of winning $100,000?"

Yet the mystery remains. Dr. Jack Bryan, chairman of veterinary science at the University of Kentucky, ticks off the contributions of his profession to the sport, from the use of antibiotics to treat barn cough to new surgery techniques to remove bone chips. Then he admits, "I don't think they have anything to do with it. A Triple Crown winner is a running machine with courage. Nobody knows where that comes from."

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