Willing to Bet the Farm

"A courageous act," said Harold Blumberg, executive director of Boston's n. American Jewish Committee. "A bold and desperate gamble," wrote the Miami Herald. Said Ted Bonda, an Ohio Democrat and former owner of the Cleveland Indians: "He's put his and the country's prestige on the line," As Jimmy Carter left for the Middle East, Americans by the hundreds phoned the White House, not to voice approval or disapproval but simply to wish the President good luck. There was at first a general assumption that he had received assurances from Israel and Egypt that his trip would be successful Said New York Republican Senator Jacob Javits: "If he's taking more risk than I think he's taking, he's crazy." But Carter in fact had received no such guarantee, and the American people soon realized that he had embarked on the most politically hazardous trip of his presidential career. Riding with him on Air Force One could have been his own political future. Said the Herald: "His willingness to bet the farm in 1979 could well send him back to it after 1980."

Few people doubted the genuineness of Carter's motives in taking such risks, but there was also no doubt that he was sorely in need of some kind of victory. On the eve of his departure, he had sunk to his lowest point in the public-opinion polls since July 1978 (63% negative in the Harris survey), partly because voters generally believe that he is floundering in his foreign policy and has lost control of events. Said Joel Fleishman, director of Duke University's Institute for Policy Sciences and Public Affairs: "Carter needs a success. The ripest possibility is the Mideast, so why not go after it?"

Carter's willingness to go his "extra mile," combined with the apparent discovery of new negotiating points acceptable to the Israelis, won him a measure of good will among many American Jews, who had been embittered by his pressure on Israel to make concessions to Egypt. Said Clifton Hillman, president of the Jewish Community Council of Greater Boston: "You've got to give Carter credit for trying." But Jewish leaders cautioned their followers not to expect too much. Said Myron Brodie, executive director of the Greater Miami Jewish Federation: "A good marriage isn't the result of a marriage certificate.

There has to be a real intention to deliver by both sides."

Politicians predicted that the mission's failure would have disastrous consequences for Carter and the Democrats. Said Tim Hagan, Democratic chairman in the Cleveland area: "He's rolled the dice. Now he has to pull it off." But there was considerable debate over how much Carter would gain domestically from success. Such a triumph might temporarily strengthen his hand with the power barons in Washington and help him cope with a stubborn Congress, but political memories are short. Nor would success necessarily improve the President's public image for very long. Said New Hampshire Pollster Richard Bennett: "An agreement would help Carter, but the effect would not be lasting."

Observed Mervin Field, whose California poll gives Carter one of the lowest ratings in the past 30 years: "Pushing the international button is less effective than in the past because people are so concerned about domestic problems."

Shirley Wechsler, national vice president of the Americans for Democratic Action, said that "no single act, however important, is>going to make a major change in Carter's overall performance. Can he stop inflation? Can he solve the energy crisis?" Columnist John Roche, a political scientist at Tufts University and a former aide to Lyndon Johnson, said, "Carter is carrying aces and eights.-The average American attitude on peace in the Middle East is, 'Yeah, very nice. But look at the price of gas.' " For the moment, however, the President and the advisers who accompanied him to the Middle East had put aside such domestic problems. "Right now we're just thinking about the peace settlement," said an aide. "Once that's taken care of, we'll have plenty of time to cure inflation on the plane coming back. It's a long flight."

"Known to poker players as the "dead man's hand," it refers to the cards Wild Bill Hickok was holding when he was murdered in J 876.

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