Reassuring Some Friends

Goal of a Middle East tour

The seemingly endless turmoil in Iran overshadowed a coming event that is also crucial to U.S. interests in the Middle East. Next week Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan and Premier Moustafa Khalil will resume the Israeli-Egyptian dialogue at Camp David, with the guiding presence of Secretary of State Cyrus Vance. Clearly there is no hope for stability in the Middle East without a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. That vital first step, if it can be taken, would go a long way toward reassuring a number of nervous nations in the region about America's intentions and commitments.

Providing a bit of that reassurance was one of the main goals of a ten-day, four-country tour of the area by Harold Brown -the first visit ever to the Middle East by an incumbent U.S. Secretary of Defense. "The trip is intended as a demonstration that the U.S. recognizes the strategic importance of the region," a senior defense official told TIME Correspondent Don Sider, who accompanied Brown. "It is our purpose to convey the reassurance that we will stand by our friends against external threats."

The first reverberations from the shock waves of Iran were felt by Brown and his 20-member party in Riyadh, where the Secretary was greeted by skirling bagpipers of the Royal Guard. Although their subsequent conversation was amiable, Crown Prince Fahd inexplicably kept Brown cooling his heels for two hours before a scheduled meeting. Talks with his Saudi counterpart, Minister of Defense and Aviation Prince Sultan, were also cordial. The American visitors were surprised, however, that the prince did not ask for specifics when Brown proposed a heightened U.S. military presence in the region. The Secretary had carefully set the groundwork for a discussion of that subject by outlining his -and the Administration's -three-point program for Middle Eastern stability:

>> Security through U.S. arms support and military backing, if necessary.

>> Internal and multinational economic development.

>> Peace between Israel and her Arab neighbors.

In Jordan, King Hussein kept his American-born wife Queen Nur, Brown's wife Colene and other guests waiting more than two hours for a formal dinner while he and Brown held what was later described as a "frank and fervent" discussion. All went smoothly until Israel became the subject: the King reportedly was adamant about the need for guarantees of the return of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to Arab sovereignty, and for a satisfactory resolution of the problem of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories.

In Israel there were some upbeat signs. As Dayan prepared to set off for the Camp David talks, Israeli Defense Minister Ezer Weizman told TIME Jerusalem Bureau Chief Dean Fischer that he thought the Camp David negotiations would reach "a positive conclusion." Weizman added simply: "I believe that our future and Egypt's future lie together." He did not, however, discuss the vexing problem of "linkage" -Egypt's insistence that a bilateral peace agreement with Israel must be tied in some way to a plan for giving autonomy to the West Bank and Gaza.

Still, Dayan provided some hints that the Israelis were preparing to be conciliatory on the Palestinian issue. The Foreign Minister touched off a stormy debate both among Knesset members and in the country as a whole by suggesting that the Palestine Liberation Organization had a rightful role to play in the peace process. Said Dayan: "The P.L.O. is not a state, but we cannot deny its position or its value in the conflict and eventually, in order to reach a solution." P.L.O. Leader Yasser Arafat dismissed Dayan's words as a "Zionist tap dance."

Dayan's words may have helped balance the apparently deliberate leak within Israel of a harsher version of the government plan for eventual Palestinian "autonomy." The plan, drawn up by a committee headed by a top aide of Premier Menachem Begin, proposed a continuing Israeli army responsibility for both the internal and external security of the West Bank and Gaza. It also endorsed the right of Israelis to settle there. Although only one of several options that will be presented to the Cabinet for approval, the plan raised serious doubts about whether Israel is prepared to give meaningful self-rule to the 1.1 million Palestinians in those territories.

The Israelis are deeply concerned that the unrest in Iran could spread within the Arab world. They also feel that the collapse of this once staunch Muslim (but non-Arab) ally of the West ought to enhance Israel's own strategic importance in Washington's eyes. How that attitude will be reflected at Camp David is not clear, although State Department officials went out of their way to indicate that the talks would not be "a make-or-break effort." The first stage, lasting from three to five days, will consist of discussions among Vance, Dayan and Khalil. Neither the Israelis nor the Egyptians will have authority to make final decisions on the language of the treaty. If Begin's Cabinet is satisfied by Dayan's report on the first round of talks, it will authorize Dayan to return to the U.S. to negotiate the finishing touches of the draft treaty. If this succeeds, the documents could then be signed by Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in early March.

The Israelis were initially encouraged last week by a Sadat statement in which he noted that Iran had underscored "the need to realize peace now in order to avoid further unrest in the region." But as Brown discovered during his three-day visit to Cairo, the Egyptians are pessimistic about the Camp David talks. "Iran has changed everything," a senior Egyptian official told TIME Cairo Bureau Chief Dean Brelis. "There is serious doubt about Israel's intent to make peace. A duty has fallen on the U.S. to respond not as a superpower but as a friend of the Arabs." Added another official: "Camp David is no longer our No. 1 priority." What alarmed the Egyptians was the specter of a highly armed, militant Iran making common cause with such radically anti-Israel Arab states as Iraq and Libya. P.L.O. Leader Arafat was reported to have conferred with Ayatullah Khomeini in Tehran last weekend, and the Iranians have declared their intention of turning the sacked Israeli mission in Tehran into a Palestinian embassy.

Egypt is understandably anxious to avoid finding itself totally isolated as a peacemaker in the Arab world, should the talks with Israel collapse. For Brown and for Carter, to whom the Secretary will report immediately on his return to Washington, the hours of talks with Sadat offered an alarming perspective on just how volatile the Middle East might be without a peace accord. qed

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