A Point of No Return

That Egyptian-Israeli treaty may be just down the road

Once again euphoria reigned as Egyptian and Israeli negotiators, under Washington's careful guidance, pushed ahead on a peace treaty between the two states. Said an optimistic Secretary of State Cyrus Vance late last week: "We have now resolved almost all the substantive issues." While in the U.S. on a fund-raising tour, Israeli Premier Menachem Begin said that "real progress" had been made and that he hoped to sign the treaty "quite soon, with God's help." Even customarily cautious Egyptian diplomats agreed with their Israeli counterparts that "the point of no return" had been reached on the three-week-old peace talks.

It has been a bumpy road to peace, and a few more jolts could lie ahead. Only a week earlier, the whole mood of negotiations darkened when Israel announced that it would expand the size of five Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. That decision had given Egyptian President Anwar Sadat a strong excuse for pulling out of the negotiations if he had wanted to do so. Obviously he did not, even though Begin continued to talk defiantly, even provocatively, about Israel's goals. Accepting this year's Family of Man award from the New York Council of Churches, the Premier once again challenged the U.S. (and Arab) view that East Jerusalem is occupied land. "Jerusalem," he said, "is one city, indivisible, the eternal capital of Israel and of the Jewish people."

Sadat also was awarded a Family of Man medallion, just as he and Begin will share the Nobel Prize for Peace. In an acceptance speech read by former Premier Mamdouh Salem, he pointedly insisted that he went to Jerusalem and to Camp David "to establish peace for the entire area." Despite such oft-repeated assertions, both radical and moderate Arabs are concerned that Sadat has, in effect, sold out to Israel. Last week 20 Arab governments assembled in Baghdad in an effort to counteract the impending Egyptian-Israeli settlement.

The Arab states were as divided as ever. The Palestine Liberation Organization's de facto foreign minister, Farouk Kaddoumi, for instance, taunted the Saudis for their continued financial backing of Egypt. Unless the Arabs took joint action, he declared, "the Israelis will not stop until they have reached Mecca and seized your oil wealth." To which the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al Faisal, replied tartly: "Mecca has a God to protect it. As for the oil, it has men defending it." By week's end the group had voted to raise $9 billion to strengthen Arab defenses against Israel, and sent a four-man delegation to meet Sadat in hopes of persuading him to give up his peace initiative. But Sadat refused to see them, declaring that "billions of dollars will not buy the will of Egypt. We have taken the difficult road to peace and we will not deviate from it."

Meanwhile, domestic political considerations prompted Carter to paper over his quarrel with Begin about the expansion of West Bank settlements. On the day the Premier was in New York to receive his award, Carter was there also, campaigning for Democratic Governor Hugh Carey. At first the White House said coldly that the two leaders had no plans to meet. Belatedly considering the impact of such a snub on the city's Jewish voters, the White House hastily scheduled a 20-minute session with Begin and his aides.

That same night Begin ordered his Defense Minister, Ezer Weizman, to fly from Washington to Jerusalem to seek Cabinet support on late developments in the negotiations. This led to speculation that a tentative agreement might be at hand. By that time the draft treaty had been revised at least seven times, and most of the problems had been either solved or sidestepped. Chief among these was the question of "linkage" between an Egyptian-Israeli treaty and further negotiations on the West Bank and Gaza. The two sides agreed to discuss the matter both in a preamble to the treaty and in separate letters that will be attached to the main document.

Most of the remaining issues were relatively minor. Questions concerning the Sinai oilfields still had to be settled, but it seemed likely that neither side would pay compensation to the other. Israel asked that war memorials in each other's territories be preserved--a one-sided request, since there are no Egyptian war memorials on Israeli territory.

Still to be settled, as well, is how much money the U.S. must pay Israel for its withdrawal from the Sinai. The Israelis are reportedly asking $3 billion to $4 billion, but the haggling, which has long since become a routine aspect of relations between the two countries, is still going on. In 1970, the Nixon Administration paid dearly (to the tune of about $500 million a year in additional aid) for the ceasefire with Egypt. Henry Kissinger's 1975 Sinai agreement may well have been the most expensive pact ever negotiated. It not only pledged enormous financial and political support but also opened America's arsenal of advanced weapons to Israel and guaranteed Israel's oil supply for five years. Since Iran still supplies about 50% of Israel's oil, that U.S. guarantee would become particularly significant if the current turbulence in Iran continues.

As for the treaty-signing ceremony, the only thing the two sides are agreed on is that it should be an extravaganza. Sadat has suggested either Cairo or Mount Sinai as the site. Begin has proposed Jerusalem. The Israelis have also mentioned Oslo, where, on Dec. 10, Begin and Sadat are due to receive their Nobel Prize. Jimmy Carter thinks the ceremony should be held somewhere in the Middle East. Chances are, though, that he would be delighted to go anywhere in the world to see the peace treaty signed and sealed.

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