SALT'S Last (Big) 5%

Negotiations are 95% complete for a second-stage Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty. So declared Paul Warnke, the outgoing director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, after he and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance finished two days of talks in the Kremlin last week. But two years ago, the then Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, similarly proclaimed that SALT II was 95% complete. Last year the Carter Administration spoke glowingly of wrapping up negotiations by Christmas of 1977. Now there is talk of a treaty by this Christmas. Observes Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko: "Everyone is going around in his own circle."

Although hollow predictions seem to characterize the six-year search for a second-stage arms accord, Warnke's optimistic assessment may be accurate. The bulk of SALT II does appear ready for signing. The draft of the resolved portions runs more than 50 pages. Both sides have settled the central issue, agreeing to limit their strategic arsenals to 2,250 weapons systems at least until 1985. These ceilings will require the Soviets to scrap about 300 aging rockets and bombers. The U.S. will not have to make any cuts, since its strategic weapons now total 2,150.

As for completing the treaty's remaining 5%, that will require what U.S. diplomats call "end game trade-offs." One major example is the deadly accurate cruise missile, which the U.S. developed to offset ominous Soviet advantages in rocket size and power. Moscow had insisted that SALT II impose a 1,500-mile-range limit on cruises launched from planes; this would keep much of the Soviet Union beyond the weapon's reach. In September, however, the Russians indicated that they would drop this demand if a strict 360-mile ceiling were placed on the range of cruises fired from the ground or ships.

Washington so far has balked at this tradeoff. Reason: such a limitation would infuriate key U.S. allies, notably West Germany and Britain, which count on these weapons for a credible defense against Soviet attack. NATO could be seriously weakened if West Europeans think their security is being ignored by the U.S. in its bilateral dealings with Moscow.

How SALT deals with the Soviets' Backfire bomber must also be decided. While many American experts privately agree with Moscow that, strictly speaking, the Backfire is not a strategic system and thus need not be part of SALT, some experts strongly dispute this. Among the other unresolved issues is something experts call "fractionalization," or the number of warheads each missile can carry. Fearing that Soviet monster rockets like the SS-18, for which the U.S. has no counterpart, could eventually be loaded with dozens of warheads, Washington is pressing for a limit of ten to 14 per missile. For their part, the Soviets want to restrict cruise missiles to 20 per airplane; without limits, a jumbo jet could carry as many as 80. The question of "modernization" of older missiles also remains open.

Despite persistent disagreements over SALT II, Soviet-American ties seem to be improving. Gromyko and Vance agreed that their countries should begin talks this December on restricting conventional arms sales to Latin America. Vance even had a "cordial and friendly" chat with Leonid Brezhnev. The 71-year-old Communist Party Chief, despite his shuffling walk and slurred speech, seemed in much better health than when Vance had seen him in Moscow last April.

While SALT'S remaining issues may appear relatively minor, they loom important because, as Vance puts it, "negotiations get tougher at the end." The Administration believes that it has already made a major concession by abandoning its original insistence on a deep cut in nuclear arsenals. If it appears to be yielding on the remaining points, the White House fears it could worsen the chances of Senate approval of SALT n, which will not be easy in any case.

In SALT'S end game, therefore, the White House does not want to surrender any pawns. There may be yet another Vance-Gromyko meeting in Geneva in November. If this encounter manages to get through the last and longest 5% of the way toward SALT II, Carter and Brezhnev can finally meet at the summit.

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